Tuesday, August 17, 2010

TM-CI potential profit of 16% within a month!

Telekom Malayisa (TM) is set to release its quarterly financial report very soon. I think it would be a fantastic result. Nevertheless, today TM breaks it resistance of RM3.43 to close at RM3.46 (intraday high RM3.49). I really expect the momentum to go on strong. Its trading volume also increase significantly.


There is a few TM call warrants listed on KLSE namely TM-CI, TM-CJ, TM-CK, TM-CL, TM-CM and TM-CN. I like TM-CI the most as it comes with a discount 3.18% and gearing of 5.24. It is going to mature very soon, its expiry date is 17/9/2010, this is a very good news to discounted call warrant. This means that TM-CI potential profit of 16% (3.18 x 5.24) is going to be released very soon. With current strong momentum of TM, I really think that TM-CI would be a very great trade. TM-CI has increased 22% the last 3 days.

Ok, good luck

GOon

Monday, August 16, 2010

TM may gain RM102m from Measat deal

Telekom Malaysia (TM) stands to book an extraordinary gain of RM102 million if it has written down its investment in Measat Global Bhd to RM2.50/share.

In a note here today, ECM Libra Investment Research, it was believed that TM has written down its investment in Measat to around RM2.50 per share since 2003.

"The extraordinary gain will translate to about an additional three sen for financial year 2010 earnings per share," it said.

ECM Libra said the Measat share disposal would increase TM's bulging cash pile marginally.

It said with cash and bank balances of RM3.9 billion as at Mar 31, the sale proceeds from its 15 per cent equity stake in Measat, however, were unlikely to make significance difference to TM.

"Nonetheless, as TM's cash and bank balances continue to build up, it is increasingly become a question of when, and not whether TM will return excess cash to shareholders," it said.

The research house said press reports indicated that TM was unlikely to reject the offer as the promoters would have been inclined to have approached TM before that deal was announced to get their buy-in

Saturday, August 7, 2010

US : "A Terribly Slow Pace of Job Growth": Private Sector Hiring Disappoints, Again

"Tepid", "anemic", "desultory" and "punk" are among the adjectives being used to describe Friday's July jobs report.

At 131,000 the headline payroll loss was worse than expected. In addition, the tally for May and June was revised down by nearly 100,000, further evidence the U.S. economy cooled considerably after its first-quarter spurt.

"This remains a terribly slow pace of job growth," writes Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak.

The big disappointment was private sector hiring, which totaled 71,000 last month, weaker than anticipated. (As expected, government payrolls fell by 143,000 as temporary census workers were let go.)

"The private sector number is the most disturbing," Tig Gilliam, CEO of Adecco Group North America, says in the accompanying video. "It's great that we have a positive number but we're really not seeing an acceleration of private sector jobs, which is what we need to see fairly soon."

Year-to-date, the private sector had added about 630,000 jobs, far short of the level needed to replace the nearly 8 million jobs lost since the recession officially began in December 2007. The unemployment rate held steady at 9.5% while the "real" unemployment rate (U6) remained at 16.5%. With 14.6 million Americans out of work (44% for six months or longer), the unemployment rate being unchanged is not good news because it shows many Americans remain discouraged or are dropping out of the labor force -- and out of the official tally.

"We've got to expect that number to go up because we have so many potential workers sitting on the sidelines," Gilliam says. "As the job market gets better, more people will get active and engaged and that will have the effect of increasing the unemployment rate."

Gilliam notes temporary hiring continues to improve, which is traditionally a good leading indicator for future employment growth (and good for Adecco.) Both average hourly earnings and the average workweek rose in July, which are positive signs, but, overall, the U.S. employment picture remains grim.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Singapore and Malaysia Property Outlook

Singapore
Price index for non-landed private homes up 2.6%. Latest flash estimates from the National University of Singapore show that its overall price index for non-landed private homes rose 2.6 per cent in May over the preceding month. Since the end of last year, the index has appreciated 8.6 per cent. The Singapore Residential Price Index (SRPI), compiled by the NUS Institute of Real Estate Studies, covers only completed properties.The sub-index for the central region, which covers a basket of properties in postal districts 1-4 and 9-11, grew 2.5 per cent in May over the preceding month, and 7.9 per cent year to date.The sub-index for non-Central region rose at a slightly faster clip, of 2.6 per cent month-on-month in May and 9.1 per cent year to date.

Developers' sales have slowed since May as Europe's economic crisis affected financial markets, causing home buyers to withdraw to the sidelines, even ahead of the June school holidays and World Cup season. The market is expected to enter a consolidation phase, marked by slower sales as developers try their best to maintain prices and potential buyers hold back their purchases, hoping for price cuts. Joseph Tan, executive director (residential) at the firm, forecasts that home prices are likely to remain firm despite his prediction that developers' new private homes sales will slow to about 2,000 units in Q3 from an estimated 4,000 units in Q2 and 4,380 units in Q1. 'Home prices are likely to stay stable given the positive outlook on the economy and strong boom in manufacturing and exports,' he added.

CBRE estimates that developers sold about 600-700 private homes in June, compared with 1,078 homes in May and 2,207 units in April. The developers are estimated to have sold 8,300 units in the first half of this year. They sold 14,688 new homes for the whole of last year. Despite the stronger increase in the central region, the flash estimate index for May for the location was still 3.7 per cent shy of the pre-financial crisis peak in November 2007. In contrast, for the non-central region, the latest index has already exceeded its respective January 2008 pre-crisis peak by 11.1 per cent. As a result, the overall SRPI flash estimate index for May is 5.5 per cent above its November 2007 high.


The Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) is offering 10 industrial plots for sale under the second-half 2010 industrial government land sales programme. The plots, with a total land area of 19.92 ha, comprise three sites on the confirmed list and seven on the reserve list.

Five of the 10 sites are new - a 4.65 ha plot at Yishun Street 23/Yishun Avenue 9 on the confirmed list and plots at Woodlands Avenue 12, Tuas View Square, Kaki Bukit Road 4 and Ang Mo Kio Street 62 on the reserve list. The rest are being rolled over from the H1 2010 reserve list.The government will sell all the plots on leases of 30, 45 or 60 years. Colliers International director (industrial) Tan Boon Leong noted that all three plots on the confirmed list are zoned Business 2 use. 'This will cater to strong demand for such sites as seen in the high number of bids for B2 land parcels last year.'

Singapore is the third most liveable city in the world, going by preliminary findings from a broad-based study commissioned by a think-tank here.The Centre for Liveable Cities (CLC) released initial results from its Global Liveable Cities Index (GLCI) at the World Cities Summit (WCS) yesterday. Of the 64 cities assessed, Geneva emerged tops and Zurich second. Copenhagen and Helsinki tied at fourth.Asia-Pacific cities which made it to the top 20 include Hong Kong (eighth), Melbourne (10th), Osaka (16th) and Tokyo (18th). CLC got the study going in 2008 to assess cities' liveability in five areas: economic vibrancy and competitiveness; environmental friendliness and sustainability; domestic security and stability; quality of life and diversity; and governance and leadership.GLCI is still a piece of work in progress, but CLC and some of the study's co-authors will present it at a WCS session today to gather feedback on its criteria and methodology. 'In terms of looking at liveability from a more holistic and balanced framework, I think there are probably very few, if any, such set of indicators that are around,' CLC director and National Environment Agency CEO Andrew Tan told the press yesterday. Across the five areas which the GLCI looked at, Singapore fared best in domestic security, coming in first. It scored fairly well in terms of governance, quality of life and economic vibrancy. But its showing in eco-friendliness was weakest, at 14th place.


Singapore is the 11th most expensive city in the world for expatriates, one place lower than its 10th position last year, says HR consultancy firm Mercer. But the city moved up a notch to fourth place among cities in Asia-Pacific - which for the first time has three cities in the top 10 list of the dearest places for expats.Tokyo remains the most expensive city in Asia-Pacific, with sister city Osaka second, and Hong Kong third. Singapore and Seoul round out the top five. Part of the reason Asian cities feature more prominently in the worldwide top 10 list is the rise in residential property prices in the region, said Mercer senior researcher Nathalie Constantin-Metral. 'At the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010, residential property prices in many Asian countries rose as the economic environment began to stabilise and demand for good expat housing increased,' said Ms Constantin-Metral.


Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
Moves by the Malaysian government to develop state land in and around the centre of Kuala Lumpur are being watched by property players amid concern that huge new projects could lead to an over-supply of office space. The state sites add up to more than 240 ha. And in a bid to trim the budget deficit, there has been talk of developing them to 'unlock value' and create a multiplier effect. One such site is a huge 162 ha plot at Sungei Besi - a 10-minute drive from the city centre - that is now the Royal Malaysian Air Force base. This has been earmarked for mixed development, with an Islamic financial centre at its core, once air force moves out. According to media reports, the federal government investment fund 1Malaysia Development and the Qatar Investment Authority are likely to be master planners for the project. Most property players are confident new supply over the next two years can be comfortably absorbed. But others are less certain, pointing to competition from new offices sprouting up in the greater Klang Valley, in areas such as Bangsar, Mont Kiara, Petaling Jaya and Sentral, among others. Unless the planners get it right, the government's projects could put additional pressure on rents post-2012. Yields would also suffer should foreign investors be slow in making Kuala Lumpur home and setting up shop.

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

Another Recession Due Circa 2012: Jim Rogers

A new recession would be due around 2012 but central banks will not be able to throw cash at it anymore, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, told CNBC Tuesday.

India's central bank raised its interest rate Tuesday, joining other monetary authorities such as the Canadian and Norwegian central banks in hiking rates to stem inflation.

"We do have inflation in the world… most central banks should resign," Rogers said.

There has always been a recession every four to six years in the US "since the beginning of time," and that would mean another one is due around 2012, according to Rogers, a hedge fund pioneer who started the Quantum Fund with George Soros in 1970.

"When the next one comes the world is going to be in worse shape because the world has shot all its bullets," he said.

"Is Mr. Bernanke going to print more money than he already has? No, the world would run out of trees," Rogers added.

The fact that second-quarter earnings have been better than expected does not necessarily mean that the recovery is stronger than anticipated, he said.

"I'm sure some of it is expectation management… but remember what the comparison is. We are talking about the second quarter of 2009, when we thought the world was coming to an end," Rogers said.

"Worry about next year, don't worry about the second quarter now. That's history," he added.

Rogers reiterated his view that the pan-European stress tests into the health of banks were just public relations and said he still owns the euro.

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

why 80% of investors lose money in stock market?


I guess this is how most of the 80% investors/traders react to stock market. They buy high and sell low. Bravo!!!

In my humble opinion, one of the way to gain in stock market is to buy stocks when everyone is avoiding it and sell the stocks when everyone is fighting hard for it. It is really a simple strategy.

When people shout at you for buying stocks and you are a lonely investor----BUY signal.
When all uncles and aunties are putting their hard-earned money into stock market and coffee shops are filled with stock-market related chats------SELL signal

The right thing to do is to buy low and sell high. Does it sound easy? I don't know.

Friday, July 2, 2010

Calculate put warrants premium


Above is the information I get from my online broker. As we can see that the premium for Axiata-ha is -2.71% (which is a discount of 2.71%). Besides, the exercise price is RM3.40, expiry date is 25/8/2010 and gearing is 10.35.

With a discount and the market is decreasing, axiata-ha looks like a good potential trade. The joy is varnished as soon as I try to double check the information especially the premium of axiata-ha.

The correct formula to calculate put warrants premium is as below.







The calculated axiata-ha premium is = [(0.075 x 5)+ 3.88 - 3.40 ] / 3.88 = 22%

The calculated axiata-ha preimum of 22% is very different from the premium I get from my online broker of -2.71%. It is really misleading.

I try to check the put warrant premium and information at Bursa Malaysia and CIMB Warrant website too. To my disappointment, Bursa Malaysia doesn't get the premium correct too. However, CIMB  Warrant does a good job by calculating the premium correctly.

That's why we must always double check the information we get.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Dow Jones Industrial forming head and shoulders pattern, part 2



I wrote about "head and shoulders Pattern" on 21st and 23rd of June 2010. I was expecting this pattern to be formed. I was right. We can noticed clearly than it is actually formed in Dow Jones Industrial (DJI). For your information, the "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns.

Basically, most of the investors/traders do their research based on the fundamental analysis and technical analysis. For technicians/chartists, it's gonna be downside bias for them. The head and shoulders pattern is definitely a real concern to them. For fundamentalist, things are not looking good either. US, Europe, Japan and China, all these economy power houses have been releasing lots of negative news.

As we can see from the chart above, there was a very short term rally from 8th to 18th June 2010. What makes me worry was the trading volume was not increasing as the rally was happening. I did not buy into the rally, in fact I was clearing my call warrants and started buying put warrants.

After 18th June 2010, when DJI was starting to decrease, the volume increased. The volume is increasing as DJI keeps moving down. If DJI fails to hold on to the support level of 9759, I really think we will see a major tanker in July 2010. This will not be an ordinary tanker! Some people might argue that we should buy whey they are trading near support and sell when they are trading near resistance. I am not objecting that, but this time round, I really think that DJI 9759 support is not going to hold on much longer. It is gonna to be broken.

Even though I trades in KLSE, sometimes I do my research based Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500 and NASDAQ to determine the major trend of KLSE.

I am happy that I finally gains some new experiences in trading in KLSE. I start to buy put warrants. Before this, I never had the chance to do so as the uptrend was intact. The feeling is actually quite cute. Since I have bought put warrants, I am happy when the market drops while I used to be getting worry when the market drops.

For your information, most of the put warrants premiums are not correctly calculated by my online broker. I guess it is wise for us to double confirm the premiums before we trade on these put warrants.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

Read more on "Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern"
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/06/head-and-shoulders-chart-pattern.html

"Dow Jones Industrial forming head and shoulders pattern"
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/06/dow-jones-industrial-forming-head-and.html

Friday, June 25, 2010

“工作難致富”‧“炒錢族”投機賺錢

(中國‧北京)從炒股炒樓到炒茶炒蒜,中國近年掀起各式各樣“炒風”,不少年輕人加入“炒錢 族”行列。

一份最新的調查更顯示,近80%受訪者認為踏 實地工作不如投機更易致富,近90%年輕人表示身邊有“炒錢族”。於 社會上湧現的“找快錢”觀念,有社會學家直言是打工收入微薄,財富配 不均造成,要改變現狀,就要“資產泡沫破滅,工人繼續罷工”。

由《中國青年報》社會調查中心於上週透過“題客調查網”所做的調查顯示,中國年輕人熱中成為 “炒錢族”投機賺錢。

調查訪問了11557人,其中30.6%的人承認自己是“炒錢族”,88.1%的人表示身邊存 在“炒錢族”,更有76.8%的人認同踏實工作很難致富。而這萬多名受訪者中,“80後”佔59.3%,“70後”佔25.4%。
網上一些如“找工作難不如去炒股”、“工作40年不如炒房3年”等留言都說明,年輕人通過踏實 工作很難致富,當長輩辛苦工作一輩子才積攢幾十萬元時,很多根本不踏實工作的人,僅靠炒樓炒股就成了百萬富翁。

少壯不炒股,老大徒傷悲” 
“炒風”熾熱紛棄正職

一名於去年底放棄工作專職炒股的江蘇市民孫姚表示,“少壯不炒股,老大徒傷悲”這句話令他印象 深刻,而自從成為“炒錢族”,他現在平均每月有上萬元人民幣進帳,一些過去曾反對他辭職炒股的親友,也開始嘗試業餘炒股。

對於“炒風”熾熱,中國人民大學教授周孝正說,中國先富起來的人基本都不是通過勤勞工作而來: “幹活的不掙錢,掙錢的不幹活,年輕人看到的就是這麼個社會,能不浮躁麼?”以珠三角為例,最低工資調高後仍僅每月1100元人民幣。周孝正說,貧富差距 大,社會分配不公,要平息浮躁炒風,恐怕要“資產泡沫破掉,工人繼續罷工(討加薪),經濟崩盤重新洗牌,甚至改朝換代。”

Wednesday, June 23, 2010

Dow Jones Industrial forming head and shoulders pattern

It is disappointing that rally over China's Yuan move fades as quickly as it began. In fact, Done Jones Industrial opened higher on Monday but closed mixed. I was expecting that rally would last a day or two. It looks to me that Done Jones Industrial (DJI) is forming a head and shoulders pattern. There is a significant resistance for DJI at 10700. The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns.

KLCI was bullish on Monday responding to China's Yuan move. Now I am a bit concern about the current short term up trend of KLCI could be fading quickly too. In my humble opinion, it is a wise move for us to close part of our portfolio now. Right now, I think put warrant is really worth a look.

Ok, good luck

GOon

Read more on "Head and Shoulders Chart Pattern"

http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/06/head-and-shoulders-chart-pattern.html