Friday, June 19, 2009

Airasia Vs MAS





It is really interesting to compared Airasia and Malaysian Airline System Bhd (MAS). Both of them have just released their quarterly report. Airasia released its quarterly report on 29 May 2009 and MAS released it quarterly report on 12 June 2009.
In my humble opinion, Airasia released one of the best quarterly report among our local blue chips; and ironically MAS released one of the worst quarterly report among our local blue chips.
AirAsia Bhd’s earnings rose 26% to RM203.15 million in the first quarter, up 26% from RM161.28 million a year ago.
MAS reported an unrealised fuel mark-to-market (MTM) loss of RM3.38 billion for its first quarter ended March 31, 2009, triggered by the unprecedented collapse in fuel prices in late 2008 and early 2009. The national carrier posted net loss of RM694.8 million in the first quarter ended March 31, 2009 compared with a profit of RM46.6 million a year ago. The net loss included derivative loss of RM557.0 million with the early adoption of financial reporting standards (FRS 139). In a statement to Bursa Malaysia, it said that it has applied and been granted a conditional waiver until Dec 31, 2009 from being categorised as an Affected Listed Issuer under PN 17 after it triggered the criteria under Paragraph 2.1 of PN 17 in relation to shareholders’ equity.
Even though both of them released opposite quarterly report, their share prices also reacted differently. As we can see, MAS shares prices up from RM2.37 on 12 March 2009 to close at Rm3.18 on 19 June 2009. Ya, it gains around 40%. Even though after it released a disastrous quarterly report, it share prices did not suffer much. Why? is it because MAS is a government link company (GLC)?
The scenario is quite different with Airasia. Even though Airasia released quite a good report, its share price drop from RM1.35 on 1 June 2009 to RM1.13 on 19 June 2009 (down around 30%). Its shares price start to drop since the day it released its good quarterly report. Why? Compared to MAS (up 40% since March), Airasia up only around 20%
There is something wrong with our investors, they appreciate losses and purnish profits. Weird thing! Kalau kita teruskan macam ni, Malaysia Boleh?! Malaysia Pasti Boleh??!! #@*#!
I see a good trade in Airasia. For those who like more leverage, Airasia-ce is also a good choice.As a reminder, airsia-ce is going to mature in another 2 month.
Good luck!

Thursday, June 18, 2009

I am free!

For the last two months, I was quite busy with my networking business and my CFA level 1 examination preparation. I sat for my CFA level 1 examination on 7 June 2009. Ya, it was a very tough exam to pass. Normally, CFA level 1 passing rate is around 35%. I really hope this time i can manage to pass it.

Now i can focus on my trading. These few days the world markets are down a lot. I think it is really a good chance for us to start to accumulate stocks. Most people avoid buying stocks when the market is in red region, in fact, they sell their stock when the market is in the red. Then they buy when the market is in green region.

The way i invest is more to a contrarian style. Thus I will try to persuade myself to buy stocks when the market is in the red. Contrarian styple is an investment style that goes against prevailing market trends by buying assets that are performing poorly and then selling when they perform well. A contrarian investor believes that the people who say the market is going up do so only when they are fully invested and have no further purchasing power. At this point, the market is at a peak. On the other hand, when people predict a downturn, they have already sold out, at which point the market can only go up. Contrarian investing also emphasizes out-of-favor securities with low P/E ratios.

At first, i found it hard to successfully persuade myself to buy stocks when the market is in the red. When the market is in the red, it felt like the end of the world.

Now, i am getting more used to buying stocks when the market is in the green. From my experience, it is more profitable when we buy stocks when the market is in the red region and sell stocks when the market is in the green region.

Early of June I sold around 30% of my portfolio as i was not confident that the market would keep on going up. I was not able to accurately predict the market, the market kept on going up the last few days. Some stocks are already down 20-30% in the last few days.

Again, i would to say, now it is quite a good time to start accumulate good stocks.I still think the market is in an uptrend.

I will keep you all update with my trade.

Enjoy your trading.

Up! Up! Up!

Tuesday, June 2, 2009

Pending Home Sales Up 6.7%, Biggest Gain in Over 7 Years

The number of U.S. homebuyers who agreed to purchase a previously occupied home in April posted the largest monthly jump in nearly eight years, a sign that sales are finally coming to life after a long and painful slump.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales contracts signed in April surged 6.7 percent to 90.3, far exceeding analysts' forecasts. It was the biggest monthly jump since October 2001, when pending sales rose 9.2 percent.

"This is yet another positive indication that the bottoming process is forming," Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. "Now if only prices would stabilize."

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the index would edge up to 85 from a reading of 84.6 in March.

Typically there is a one- to two-month lag between a contract and a done deal, so the index is a barometer for future existing home sales.

"The pronounced increase in April does indicate that actual existing home sales are poised to rise in the coming month or two," wrote Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist with MFR.

The index was 3.2 percent above last year's levels and has risen for three straight months after hitting a record low in January.

A nearly 33 percent sales increase in the Northeast and a 9.8 percent jump in the Midwest led the overall surge. Sales contracts rose 1.8 percent in April from a month earlier in the West, but fell 0.2 percent in the South.

The big boost likely reflects the impact of a new $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers that was included in the economic stimulus bill signed by President Barack Obama in February.

Since buyers need to finish their purchases by Nov. 30 to claim the credit, "we expect greater activity in the months ahead," Lawrence Yun, the Realtors' chief economist, said in a statement.

Still, Yun cautioned that the pending sales data is more volatile than in the past because many sellers need banks to agree to take less than the original mortgage—a so-called "short sale." That process is often difficult, time-consuming and can wind up falling apart before the deal closes.

The Federal Housing Administration last week released details of a plan in which borrowers who use FHA loans can get advances from lenders that let them effectively receive the credit in advance, so they don't have to wait to get the money from the Internal Revenue Service.

Completed home sales rose 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 4.68 million in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million in March, the Realtors' group said last week.

Sales of inexpensive foreclosures and other distressed low-end properties have even sparked bidding wars in places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami.

But the market for high-end properties remains at a virtual standstill.

The national median sales price in April plunged more than 15 percent to $170,200, from $201,300 in the same month last year. That was the second largest yearly price drop on record, according to the Realtors' group.

Friday, May 29, 2009

CBOE volatility index-updated


This is an update to my 14 may 2009 post on CBOE volatility index. http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/05/cboe-volatility-index-fear-index.html

For the past 3 month VIX is trending downward. In my humble opinion, I think there is an inverse relationship between VIX and stock market indexes. What i see from this chart is investors/traders are getting more and more confident with equity market.

Let's hope that the current rally can last longer!

AirAsia -- success of low-cost model




It is good to know that after 2 quarters of losses, Airasia Bhd finally releases a satisfactory quarterly report. AirAsia Bhd’s earnings rose 26% to RM203.15 million in the first quarter, up 26% from RM161.28 million a year ago.

The higher earnings were due to higher yields, lower unit costs and one-off Rm48.53 million item gain. Revenue rose 33% to RM714.18 million from RM535.32 million.

Yield rose 12% to 13.7 sen per ASK, while unit costs fell 18% to 8.6 sen per ASK while load factor declined to 69.7%. AirAsia also said second-quarter passenger traffic is headed for a 21 per cent jump, matching last quarter’s increase as budget-conscious travelers look for cheap air fares.


Based on bookings in the second quarter, passenger demand “remains robust,” AirAsia said.

Airasia Bhd is one of the company I like most. Airasia Bhd is expanding fast even during this difficulty time but at the same time other airlines are closing down. The carrier’s surging traffic contrasts with slumps at regional rivals including Singapore Airlines Ltd., which is cutting routes and capacity.

The airline expects to fly 24 million people this year as the company adds routes in India and expands flights to existing destinations in China. AirAsia, which has ordered 175 Airbus SAS planes, is increasing its capacity by about 20 per cent each quarter.

On overseas operations, Thai AirAsia had performed exceptionally well to counter the weakening domestic consumer sentiment as a result of the internal political disturbances. It posted an operating profit of RM30.5mil for the period.

Good job Airasia. Malaysia boleh!

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Financial Wisdom From Three Wise Men

Some of us are more disciplined than others. Shortly after we are born, we start to learn the rules of life. Some of these rules we had to learn the hard way, through trial and error. Others we learned from our parents. Learning from others in this way is often easier, however, we seem to do a better job of remembering the lessons we learn the hard way. As investors, we have a choice. We can learn the hard way and hope that we'll survive our lessons and not run out of money, or we can learn from the following three wise men.

Three wise men - Warren Buffett, Dennis Gartmen and Puggy Pearson - found very different methods to achieve financial success, but they all share a common trait - their success came by following a strict set of rules. In this article we'll show you nine rules that three wise investors live by.

The World’s Greatest Investor
Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," is considered by many to be the greatest investor ever. He is also known for giving much of his $40 billion fortune to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which is dedicated to bringing innovations in health and learning. Buffett is primarily a value investor that closely follows Benjamin Graham's investing philosophy after having worked at Graham's firm, Graham-Newman.

Buffett has several excellent investing rules. You can read about many of them in his company's (Berkshire Hathaway) annual reports, which are an excellent source of investing knowledge.

Here are three of Buffett's rules:

1. Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
If you lose money on an investment, it will take a much greater return to just break even, let alone make additional money. Minimize your losses by finding quality companies that are temporarily selling at discounted prices. Then follow good capital management principles and maintain your trailing stops. Also, sitting on a losing trade uses up time, money and mental capital. If you find yourself in this situation, it is time to move on.
2. The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.
The best returns come from those who wait for the best opportunity to show itself before making a commitment. Those who chase the current hot stock usually end up losing more than they gain. Remain active in your analysis, look for quality companies at discounted prices and be patient waiting for them to reach their discounted price before buying.

3. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.
You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against it. Independent thinking and having confidence in what you believe is much more important than being the smartest person in the market. Most of the time, the best opportunities are found when everyone else has given up on the stock market. Over-confidence and emotion are the enemies of a high quality portfolio.

The Great Trader Gartman
In the October 1989 issue of Futures magazine, Dennis Gartman published 15 simple rules for trading. He is a successful trader who has experienced the gamut of trading from winning big to almost losing everything. Currently, he publishes The Gartman Letter, a daily publication for experienced investors and institutions.

Here are three of Gartman's best rules:

1. There is never one cockroach.
When you encounter a problem due to management malfeasance, expect many more to follow. Bad news often begets bad news. Should you encounter any hint of this kind of problem, avoid the stock and sell any shares you currently own.
2. In a bull market only be long. In a bear market only be short.
Approximately 60% of a stock's move is based on the overall move of the market, so go with the trend when investing or trading. As the saying goes, "The trend is your friend."
3. Don't make a trade until the fundamentals and technicals agree.
Fundamentals help to find quality companies that are selling at discounted prices. Technical analysis helps to determine when to buy, the exit target and where to set the trailing stop. A variation of this is to think like a fundamentalist and trade like a technician. When you understand the fundamental reasons that are driving the stock and the technicals confirm the fundamentals, then you can make the trade.

The Gambler
The wisdom of the late two-time champion world poker player Puggy Pearson offers our last set of rules to follow. "Only three things to gamblin'," Puggy once said, "knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management and knowing yourself." Well, those rules apply to investors too.

Here are Pearson's all-encompassing rules:

1. Knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition
Understanding the odds of drawing a winning hand is essential to poker. The 60/40 bets are those that offer the best chance of winning given all the options available. If you only play hands that have these odds or better, the statistics are on your side.

As investors, we should strive to put the odds in our favor with every trade. Finding the best 60/40 opportunities takes time and research, as there are many ways to find good candidates. These can be identified through individual stock selection, top-down or bottom-up approaches, technical or fundamental analysis, value-based pricing, growth-oriented, sector-leaning or whatever approach works best for a particular investor. The point is that investors must be constantly working toward finding and recognizing opportunities as they present themselves. Once you have been dealt the right cards, it's time to take the next step.
2. Money Management
Managing money is an ongoing process. The first tenet is to minimize losses on each opportunity. Fortunately, investors do not have to ante up to play, as in poker, though investors must work hard to find good opportunities. Once you have a good hand, it is time to decide how much money to commit to the opportunity.

While much is written on this topic, let's keep it simple. Basically it is a risk-reward decision. The more money you commit, the greater the possible reward and the higher the risk of losing some of that money. However, if you do not play, then you cannot win.

Basically, when the best opportunities present themselves, it is usually wise to make a significant commitment. For good (but not great) opportunities, committing smaller amounts makes sense as the potential reward is less. As in poker, most of an investor's money is made in small increments with the occasional big win coming along every once in a while. This requires that an investor evaluate each opportunity compared to others that have shown themselves in the past. Experience is an excellent teacher. Finally, investors can use a stop-loss strategy to mitigate greater losses should their assessment of the opportunity prove to be wrong. Too bad gamblers don't have such a tool! 3. Knowing Yourself
The last gambling rule, knowing yourself, means doing everything you can to stick to your discipline. Everyone wants to get on with it to make the next trade, but if that opportunity does not fit within your measure of a good 60/40 opportunity, then you must force yourself to pass. While you will miss some good gains, this will also save you from some hefty losses. Following your discipline is essential for success as a gambler as well as an investor. You must be extraordinarily patient in your search for the right opportunities and then aggressively go after the best ones.

Conclusion
Each of these three wise men excels by following his rules. In this way, they have succeeded where many others have failed. While we might not be as wise as these three men, we can learn from the best.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/threewisemen.asp

轰翁诗杰屈服压力展延公布报告

5月21日 下午4点47分
针对一再延宕的巴生港口自贸区丑闻(PKFZ)稽查报告,民主行动党国会领袖林吉祥炮轰马华总会长兼交通部长翁诗杰的说词反反复复,如今再改口把是否公布这份稽查报告的问题交由内阁解答。

“真让人难于置信!翁诗杰不是早在4月29日,就斩钉截铁的下令巴生港务局“在7天内”公布普华永道对PKFZ丑闻的稽查报告?”

林吉祥强调,国人今天有权质问翁诗杰及大马反贪污委员会(MACC)在内幕重重的120亿令吉自贸区丑闻上玩甚么把戏?

拖延借口一个接一个出炉

他指出,翁诗杰目前又有新的说法,声称普华永道会计公司(PricewaterhouseCooper)对自贸区丑闻的稽查报告是否公布的问题,将由内阁解答。

“为何拖延借口一个接一个出炉后,有关报告至今依然无法见天日,又把球踢回给内阁,而国人之前被告知,内阁已允许翁诗杰公布该份报告,翁诗杰也因此在4月29日下令须在7天公布报告?”

丑闻飙至120亿天文数字

林吉祥认为,大家没必要再提醒翁诗杰15个月前信誓旦旦要公布自贸区丑闻真相,以及“纸包不住火”等言论,尤其这丑闻已不断的膨胀,从2002年林良实当交通部长时的18亿令吉膨胀到陈广才当交通部长时,成本又翻一番成为46亿令吉,再到翁诗杰当交通部长时的120亿令吉天文数字。

翁诗杰目前说由内阁决定是否公布报告,他是否在承认,他的交通部长权力已被削减,以至他较早时的公布决定,被神秘和强大的势力所推翻?

为何翁诗杰向那些不要公布报告者低头,而同意把决定权交回内阁?

难道翁诗杰目前不应表明身为交长的他,将决定是否公布报告的立场,而非把球踢回给内阁?

国人显然要翁诗杰采取这种他之前在自己部落格中表明的公布立场。

刘天球四度报案无动于衷

此外,星报今天刊出“大马贪污委员会介入-开始调查PKFZ计划”的封面新闻,指一组布城的大马反贪污委员会(MACC)官员,已开始盘问那些涉及有关计划的人。

报导指出:

据知,一组布城的大马反贪污委员会官员,已开始调查及盘问那些对有关计划知情的人。

了解有关调查的消息说,预料一旦反贪污委员会获得会计公司普华永道的报告,就将加强调查行动。

他们说,反贪污委员会将研究有关报告,了解是否有新的因素可以让该委员会跟进。

预料反贪污委员会也将联络巴生港务局的一些人,以作为它的调查工作的一部份。

反贪污委员会的调查总监莫哈末苏克里证实调查在进行中,但他不愿详述。

林吉祥质问反贪污委员会在走甚么棋,给人一种突然间要采取行动,只待上述报告公布就调查的印象?

他指出,现任雪州行政议员刘天球在他担任行动党的非政府组织局主任时,自2004年12月开始的18个月内,就针对自贸区丑闻向警方或反贪污局作出4项投报,反贪污局或现在的反贪污委员会,如果调查是彻底、能干及专业的话,没理由不能根据有关的信息及文件著手。

“最为荒唐的是,反贪污委员会的立场似乎很无知,好像是首次接到有关自贸区丑闻消息那般,在等待普华永道的报告,以取得较多的情报来跟进。”

林吉祥强调,刘天球自2004年12月针对丑闻向反贪污局报案4次后,反贪污局没查出任何的不当或罪行;因他也要求全面彻查反贪污局,因为该局的掩盖行动,足以比拟自贸区丑闻中的大恶不赦罪行。

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/104813

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

economic cycle vs water cycle. do they look the same?




The concept of Economic Cycles, which are sometimes referred to as Business Cycles, is a theory that attempts to explain changes in economic activity that vary from a long term growth trend as observed in a developed market economy. Factors considered in defining an economic cycle include growth of GDP, household income, employment rates, etc. Economic Cycles are divided into two main categories: booms and recessions. Booms are associated with a strong economy, while recessions are characterized by below-trend economic growth. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is considered the authoritative source in the US that reports the dates of the peaks and troughs that quantify Economic Cycles. NBER defines economic cycles a bit differently than Economic Cycle Theory.

Rather than booms and recessions, it classifies the economy as being in expansion or contraction. Expansion is when several pieces of economic data are improving, and contraction is a decline in the same data. These definitions focus more on the movement of data, whereas the boom/recession definition only refers to the data's position relative to historical averages.

The basic idea behind economic cycles is that they're more than just mere fluctuations in economic activity and are significant enough to be "widely diffused over the economy.". A short term decline in economic activity has historically been observed to be followed by a short term gain in economic activity. Observed over longer periods, the highs and lows average out to form the trend, or average, economic growth rate. The Economic Cycles Theory holds that although this trend growth rate is subject to change, it has remained relatively steady in the past, thus theoretically indicating the general rate of economic growth that we can expect to see in the mid-term future. No attempt is made by Economic Cycles Theory to describe economic activity during extended periods of decline, only growth.

Booms and Expansions

Key features of an economic boom:

* Above-trend GDP growth
* Higher disposable incomes
* Less unemployment

Recessions and Contractions

Key features of a recession:

* Below-average GDP growth. The historical definition of a recession is when the economy has two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Usually by the time the official reports come available to identify a recession the market has already priced in the recession. Most recessions have a time span of 18-24 months.
* Lower disposable incomes
* Higher unemployment rates
* Decreased consumer spending is caused by the above mentioned conditions, lower disposable income from inflationary pressures, higher commodity prices such as oil, or food sources. The less spending can lead to higher unemployment. Many times this first shows in the retail sector. The three items mentioned, basically, will manifest itself on the other and snowball into a recessionary period.

Economic cycle repeats all the time just like water cycle repeats all the time. Our economy cycle never fails, boom and recession are part of the cycle just as transpiration, evaporation and rain are part of water cycle. It is just because most people like it when the economy booms and hates it when the economy is in recessions. Some people gain millions during recessions because recession gives them the chance to buy great businesses at very low prices and let them expand their businesses at the lowest cost. Survival of the fittest. A good example, Airasia is expanding now when other airlines are shutting down. I like Airasia (sound management and cheap).

Some people like rainy days and some people people like sunny days. Some people like recessions and some people like booms. In the end, it is which side you are taking. I think the most important thing is that we must get ourselves ready for each of the situations.

Quit now, lawyers tell IGP, home minister. Agree! Agree! Agree!



I really think IGP and home minister should step down. They misused their power. These lawyer are not dangerous and they are not going to harm anyone.

In fact, IGP and home minister should focus on solving more serious crimes like snatch thief.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Genting Sold



Finally, I sold all my Genting shares after holding them for 3 months. The reason is not I dont like them anymore. Genting is the one of the stock I like most. I sold them because I wanted to switch from Genting stock to their call warrants. I am very satisfied with Genting's performance.

In my previous posts, I already shared some of my thoughts on my blog regarding Genting on 25 March 2009, 23 Feb 2009, 12 Feb 2009 and 6 Feb 2009. In fact, Genting is still one of my favourite stock.

I managed to realise a 20% on my Genting trade. I did learn something important from this trade. It reminded me not forget about resistance and support level. Prior to closing this trade, I did not care about resistance level. I was too confident that in this current uptrend, all resistance level would be broken and it would go up and up all the way. In fact, this was not the case.

I still remember last few weeks I told my friend that I was not going to let go Genting because its resistance was going to be RM5.00. When Genting reached RM5 on 7 May 2009, I did not follow my pre-set decision to sell them at RM5. What happened next? Genting started to fall. Then only I looked back at the chart and decided to sell them.

Discipline is important in trading stock. Discipline. Discipline, Discipline.

Currently, I am studying genting call warrants, especially genting-co.

Ok, enjoy your trading.
GOon