Ammb-cd 8% profit in 3 weeks

i talked about bank stock on 15 September 2009 (http://www.cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/09/bank-stock.html).

I bought Ambank call warrants (ammb-cd) on 8 September 2009 at RM0.305 and I sold them all at RM0.33 on 2 October. This provided me with 8% profit in 3 week holding period. I have to admit, this trade could be better in term of profit but i sold it too early. Ambank jumped after i sold them. I think Ambank and Public Bank call warrants are the safest and most stable call warrants. I will park my fund there (buy Ambank and Public Bank call warrant) when I cant find any good potential trade.

The reason i sold them all was Ammb did not drop much compared to other stocks, so i would like to switch my portfolio to those that had dropped much. Besides, I thought October would not be a good month for stock market. I was wrong, so far this October is a good month for stock market.

Among the banks in Malaysia, I like Ambank, Public bank, Hong Leong Bank and RHB bank. I think Maybank and CIMB are the most expensive bank in Malaysia. Maybank and CIMB are GLC, I guess this will make investors think it is easier for them to get more government-related business. I think it is true too. In Malaysia, politic and business mix like rojak.

I wonder what will happen to CIMB if our prime minister is no longer around. For your information, CIMB CEO is our prime minister's younger brother.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

previous related post
http://www.cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/09/bank-stock.html

A song dedicated to my buddy. It is for you, Eddie.

解伟苓 - 放逐爱情
有时候 我真的觉得好寂寞
虽然你什麽都没说 只是紧紧的抱着我
却轻轻对我说 我只是 普通的朋友
爱的感觉不同 付出的爱没有结果

想不透 我知道自己没有错
爱你的心忘了上锁
傻傻让爱变成一种折磨
你对我一点不在乎 我还是爱的不认输
对你的爱我选择了让步

被放逐在寒冷的边际
去学习暧昧不清不是甜蜜
不再理所谓的不公平
静静的离去 轻轻的闭上眼睛

想不透 我知道自己没有错
爱你的心忘了上锁 傻傻让爱变成一种折磨
你对我一点不在乎 我还是爱的不认输
对你的爱我选择了让步

被放逐在寒冷的边际
去学习暧昧不清不是甜蜜
不再理所谓的不公平
静静的离去 轻轻的闭上眼睛

静静的摆在那里

Genting Malaysia

I like Genting Malaysia (Genm) a lot. It is a fundamentally sound company.

I notice that Genm was trading near its resistance at RM2.75, so without hesitate I buy Genm-cj on 8 Oct 2009 at RM0.155 and Genm-ck on 9 Oct 2009 at RM0.35.

I prefer Genm-ck (premium 6%, gearing 3.8) more than Genm-cj (premium 8.2%, gearing 3.2).

I think it is possible that Genm-ck and Genm-cj give me 50% profit in a month or two.

Genting and Genting Singapore are very hot lately and outperformed Genting Malaysia. In my humble opinion, Genting Malaysia is cheaper than Genting Bhd and Genting Singapore. Genting P/E is 48 and Genting Malaysia P/E is 26.24.

Nobody is 100% sure that Genting Singapore would make profit in future. Genting Singapore is scheduled to open this year end. At the same time, Genting Malaysia is already a proven very successful business but investors seem to like Genting Singapore more. Weird. I guess there are just too many speculators.

Ok, that's all from me for now.

Good luck.

GOon

Something worth to Watch To All Drivers

I am back!

For the past 2 weeks, I went back to my home town in Penang and Sungai Petani. Everytime when i am at home, i try not to think of anything. I just want to rest my mind and really do nothing. Moreover, I don't really feel like working hard at home.

Now I am back in Johor Bahru and i feel good to be back to battle field again.

Lots of thing happend in stock market during the past 2 weeks, first there was a minor short-term correction, and now it is heading upward again. Everything happened so fast.

I have to admit I made some mistakes during the last 2 weeks, I sold all my glomac-wa too early. After I have sold all my glomac-wa, it continued to move upward another 20-30%. I thought there would be a bigger correction and i was wrong.

I don't punish myself too hard for this mistake. In fact, it is pointless to do. What I can do now is to search for another good trading opportunity.

Ok, that's all the update for now.

GOon

US Mortgage applications surge to 4-month high

U.S. mortgage applications surged last week to their highest since mid-May as consumers sought to take advantage of the lowest interest rates in months, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the most widely used loan, were below 5 percent for a third straight week, reaching a four-month low. Demand for home refinancing loans was the highest since mid-May.

Appetite for applications to buy a home, a tentative early indicator of sales, climbed to the highest level since early January. The trend bodes well for the hard-hit U.S. housing market, which has been showing signs of stabilization.

The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week to October 2 increased 16.4 percent to 756.3, the highest since the week ended May 22.

"The residential housing market appears to be stabilizing due to lower mortgage rates," said Alan Rosenbaum, president of Guardhill Financial, a New York-based mortgage banker and brokerage company.

"The affordability factor, which takes into consideration both price and mortgage rates, has been very positive of late," he said.

Low mortgage rates, high affordability and the federal government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers -- part of the stimulus bill -- have helped pave the way for stabilization.

But with the tax credit set to expire on November 30 and distressed properties making up a high proportion of sales, the recent uptick in activity may mask uncertainty about the long-term outlook.

Rising unemployment is another obstacle. The U.S. Labor Department last week said the jobless rate reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.89 percent, down 0.05 percentage point from the previous week and the lowest since the week ended May 22.

The rate remained above the all-time low of 4.61 percent set in the week ended March 27. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Nevertheless, interest rates were well below the year-ago level of 5.99 percent.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 13.2 percent to 306.1, its highest since the week ended January 2.

The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smooths the volatile weekly figures, was up 4.2 percent.

REFINANCING JUMPS

The Mortgage Bankers seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications increased 18.2 percent to 3,377.1, with the index at its highest since the week ended May 22.

The refinance share of applications increased to 66.3 percent from 65.3 percent the previous week, but remained significantly lower than the peak of 85.3 percent in the week to January 9. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 6.1 percent, down from 6.2 percent the prior week.

The U.S. housing market has suffered the worst downturn since the Great Depression and its impact has rippled through the recession-hit economy, as well as the rest of the world.

The housing market, however, has been showing signs of stabilization, with sales rising and price declines moderating in many regions of the country. In fact, home prices in some areas have risen.
Some analysts, however, say prices may fall again, with a new wave of foreclosures in the pipeline.

Fixed 15-year mortgage rates averaged 4.32 percent, down from 4.34 percent the previous week. Rates on one-year ARMs increased to 6.56 percent from 6.40 percent.

US Service sector grows in Sept., 1st time in year

The U.S. service sector grew in September for the first time in 13 months, an encouraging sign for the fledgling economic recovery, although jobs remain scarce.

The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in August. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The index, which tracks more than 80 percent of the country's economic activity, including hospitals, retailers, financial services companies and truckers, hadn't grown since August 2008.

The good news:
-- The new orders index, an indicator of future activity, jumped to 54.2 in September from 49.9 a month before, the first growth reading in a year.
-- Businesses' backlog of orders grew for the first time in 14 months.
-- Present business activity rose to 55.1 from 51.3 in August, growing for the second straight month after 10 straight contractions.

The ISM report is based on a survey of the institute's members in 18 industries and covers indicators such as new orders, employment and inventories. Five industries grew last month: utilities, health care, retail, construction and wholesale trade. And while activity is rising, only three areas reported an increase in jobs: health care, support services for companies and educational services.

Overall, service-sector employment shrank in September, though at a slightly slower pace than in August. The survey's reading of 44.3, up from 43.5, was the 20th month of contraction in 21 months.

"Better, but still terrible," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note.

Other analysts said any hiring tends to lag increased production.

"We won't likely see increased hiring until January," even if business and new orders keep rising this fall, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris.

"Businesses are more reluctant than in the past to start the hiring process. They really do take the 'prove it to me' attitude" that the recession is over and demand is increasing, he said.

Last week, for example, Little Rock, Arkansas-based telecom services provider Windstream Corp. said it would cut 350 jobs, or 5 percent of its work force, this year.

Despite the overall growth, the chair of the ISM's service survey committee was not "overly excited" about September's report and said several months of increases are needed to establish a pattern of recovery.

"This has to be sustainable," Anthony Nieves said on a conference call with reporters.
The service sector is dependent on consumer spending, which powers about 70 percent of the economy. While Americans' spending rose 1.3 percent in August, the best showing since October 2001, a third of that gain came from the government's now-ended Cash for Clunkers program. The government also reported that incomes rose only 0.2 percent in August.

"We're in this kind of twilight zone of very soft recovery," Harris said.

Glomac-wa 32% in 3 weeks.

Finally, i have sold all my Glomac-wa. I bought them on 8 September 2009 at RM0.30 and i sold them all on 2 October 2009 at RM0.395. This trade provided me with 32% profit with a holding period of 3 weeks. Glomac-wa outperformed KLCI during the same period.

The reason that i sold them all was Glomac-wa had gone up significantly while other counters on my watchlist had declined significantly. I think it would be better for me to sell those counters that have gone up a lot and buy those that have gone down. Beside that, Glomac's trading volume is starting to decline.

Our stock market sentiment is getting weaker. I think it is into a short-term correction.

Good luck.

GOon

Glomac to launch new phases in ongoing projects

Property developer GLOMAC BHD plans to launch new phases with a targeted gross development value (GDV) of RM500 million in five of its ongoing projects in its current financial year ending April 30, 2010.

The new phases are a mix of residential and commercial projects, including a low-cost housing project in a joint venture with Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Selangor (PKNS), said Glomac managing director and chief executive officer Datuk FD Iskandar.

The projects that would launch a new phase are Glomac Damansara, Saujana Utama, Bandar Saujana Utama, Seri Bangi and Glomac Cyberjaya.

“The Seri Bangi low-cost residential housing project is a joint venture between us and PKNS,” Iskandar said. He said the group aimed to achieve RM500 million in sales this year from its 11 ongoing projects, which have a total GDV of RM3 billion.

Iskandar said Glomac was seeing an improvement in consumer sentiment in line with the gradual recovery seen in the economy.

“We are not out of the woods per se, and the economy needs to recover first before the effect can be felt in the different sectors,” he said, adding he expected a full economic recovery by next year.

Glomac posted a 13.5% rise in net profit to RM8.34 million in its first quarter ended July 31, 2009 despite a 40.9% fall in revenue to RM58.99 million. The higher profit was due mainly to the stronger contributions from Glomac Tower and recognition of fair value gain for Block B Glomac Business Centre.

On the forthcoming 10th Malaysia Plan, FD Iskandar hoped that property taxes would be reduced to increase the purchasing power of consumers. He also said state governments should take up low-cost housing initiatives to relieve private companies of the additional burden.

In addition, he said the government should do more more to promote the Malaysian property market to attract foreign interest, he said.

Glomac Bhd net profit UP

GLOMAC BHD posted net profit of RM8.34 million for the first quarter ended July 31, 2009, up from the RM7.8 million a year ago.

The company said on Sept 28 that on a pre-tax level, it was up 57% at RM16.47 million versus RM10.5 million a year ago. Revenue slipped to RM58.98 million from RM79.54 million. Earnings per share were 2.99 sen versus 2.73 sen.

"The lower group revenue was mainly due to the completion of Suria Stonor, the group’s high-end residential condominium project. Profits were substantially higher due to stronger contributions from Glomac Tower. The stronger profits in the quarter also included the recognition of fair value gain of RM4.9 million from its investment PROPERTIES [ ]," it said.

Glomac group executive chairman, Tan Sri F.D. Mansor said: “Overall, the group has had a good start to the current financial year" and the group's balance sheet would continue to improve upon the completion of the sale of two of its investment properties.

He said the sale of the two properties would enable it to undertake more exciting development projects and seek out new development landbank.

"Glomac’s financial performance in FY2010 will be supported by substantial unbilled sales of RM333 million as at end-July 2009, and new sales on recently launched projects.

"The group’s new flagship development, Glomac Damansara, comprising of shop offices, office towers, serviced apartments and retail suites, has a total estimated GDV (gross development value) of RM800 million," he said, adding the first phase, comprising of five and eight-storey shop offices with a total GDV of RM53 million, achieved a take-up rate of 70% over the initial six-month launch period.