Tuesday, November 3, 2009

VIX index climbing up! Good! Very Good!

VIX is climbing up. Is it a good sign or a bad sign? For contrarian, it is a good sign. High VIX indicates high volatility and market declines. Thus, I think it is better to start buying stocks when VIX reaches its resistance and start selling stocks when VIX reaches its support.

These few days, VIX crosses above 30 which last seen in July 2009. VIX goes up, stock market goes down.

Best of luck, guys.

GOon

introduction to VIX and my previous posts pertain to VIX.
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/07/investors-get-second-chance-at-bull.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/05/cboe-volatility-index-updated.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/05/cboe-volatility-index-fear-index.html

V-Shaped Recovery Will Last 2 Years: Wesbury

The economy and the stock market have very good potential to climb, as the strength of the recovery will surprise many, two market experts told CNBC Tuesday.

"I believe we're in a V-shaped recovery that's going to last for one-and-a half, two years," Brian Wesbury, chief economist at First Trust Advisors, told "Squawk Box."
Other economists have painted a bleaker picture, with one warning that if the stimulus money were to be pulled out, the world faced the risk of a 1930s depression.

But the problem "wasn't as bad as people seem to believe it was" from the beginning, Wesbury said.

The fundamentals of the US economy "look pretty good," said Brian Belski, chief strategist at Oppenheimer.

"Corporate America's balance sheets are pristine," Belski explained.

Companies Manage Better

Companies have cleaned up their balance sheets and CEOs make more prudent projections for earnings and sales now than a decade ago, he added, which is a sign that companies manage business better.

"Because of the fundamentals… we think the market can and should go higher over the next 12 months," Belski said. "From here I still think we have double-digit return."

"We think that corporate America is poised to continue recovering," he added.

Analysts have said the impressive rise in gross domestic product may slow down dramatically after programs such as Cash for Clunkers dry up, with consumers still unable to finance the recovery.

Some economists project economic growth of only around 2 percent next year, below the US potential for 3 percent, but Wesbury disagrees.

"I think GDP is going to be stronger. I'm looking at 4 percent growth for next year," he told CNBC. "The Fed is very easy, the panic is over."

EU lifts 2010 growth forecast

BRUSSELS (AP) -- The European Commission on Tuesday predicted that the EU and eurozone will grow in 2010 at a modest rate of 0.7 percent as the economy moves from a sharp recession to a hesitant and fragile recovery.

The growth forecast was raised from the earlier outlook that the economies would shrink 0.1 percent in 2010.

The EU executive warned however that a "better-than-expected" rebound in the second half of 2009 would likely be followed by slower growth early next year.

High unemployment and the lingering effects of the financial crisis are expected to dampen demand.

The EU sees stronger growth in 2011, predicting that the eurozone would expand by 1.5 percent and the EU by 1.6 percent. It says EU governments should start exit strategies to withdraw economy stimulus programs in 2011.

EU Economy Commissioner Joaquin Almunia warned that the euro would stay at a high value against the dollar over the next two years -- which may hold back European exports to the U.S. and other nations by increasing the dollar price of German cars or French champagne.

"We think that the U.S.-euro exchange rate will be on average $1.48 for next year and 2011," he told reporters.

The euro rose to a 14-month high of $1.5061 in spot trading on Oct. 26, according to Thomson Reuters data.

The EU and eurozone likely exited recession in the third quarter of 2009, the EU said, after five consecutive quarters of negative growth. The first official third quarter figures will be published on Nov. 13.

It warned that the upturn is "largely driven by temporary factors" as companies restock after a spending freeze and governments spend billions of euros on stimulus programs to stoke growth.

High unemployment and financial deleveraging -- as companies struggle to pay off large debt loads -- will likely hold back growth in the longer-term, it said, as households and businesses have less disposable cash.

"The banking sector is still fragile and the credit sector is stagnating and this is the bad news," Almunia said. "Credit flows are close to zero or in some cases in negative territory."

He blames weak demand from potential borrowers and constraints on bank lending as some financial institutions find it difficult to secure funding on wholesale markets. Banks are also focussed on repairing balance sheets badly hit by huge losses when complex securities slid in value last year.

Almunia called on government to push on with programs to buy up or guarantee these shaky assets to allow banks restore credit flows.

He said that "without normal credit flows, we will not have a sustained recovery."

The EU did not change its estimate for the economy of the 16 nations that use the euro to contract by 4 percent this year. It downgraded the figure for the economy of the entire 27-nation European Union to shrink by 4.1 percent in 2009, from an earlier estimate of 4 percent.

Poland is the only EU nation that will report economic growth in 2009, the EU said. Eight countries will keep shrinking in 2010 -- eurozone members Spain, Ireland and Greece and non-euro nations Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Hungary. All 27 nations should grow in 2011.

The EU was less pessimistic in this forecast about how high the jobless rate would rise. It earlier predicted that the eurozone rate would rise to a postwar record of 11.5 percent in 2010 but now sees the rate increasing from 9.5 percent this year to 10.7 percent next year.

Inflation will also remain low for the next two years, it said, staying well below the European Central Bank guideline of just under 2 percent. This may sap the case for raising rates from an all-time low of 1 percent in the eurozone.

The commission sees eurozone inflation at 0.3 percent in 2009, rising to 1.1 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011.

The cost of bailing out banks, boosting the economy and spending far more on welfare payments to the growing number of the unemployed has loaded European governments with debt as tax revenue collapses. The EU said nations would risk long-term sustainability if they continued to run large budget gaps for several years running, while their populations age, with fewer workers paying for the growing costs of health care and social security.

Collectively, euro area debt is set to rise from 78.2 percent this year to 88.2 percent in 2011, it said -- far above a 60 percent limit that EU budget rules set for each euro member to underpin their currency. Only four of the 16 countries would stick to that limit in 2011.

Public debt in euro members Greece, Ireland and Spain is set to soar rapidly, with Greece next year overtaking Italy as running the highest level in the EU at 124.9 percent of gross domestic product in 2010.

Manufacturing Rebounds, Construction Spending Up

A closely watched gauge of manufacturing activity showed its strongest growth since April 2006, while a separate report showed construction spending also rose, providing further proof that the economy may be turning around.

The U.S. manufacturing sector grew in October for the third consecutive month and at a faster rate than was expected, according to an industry report released on Monday.

The Institute for Supply Management said its index of national factory activity rose to 55.7 in October from 52.6 in September. The median forecast of 74 economists surveyed by Reuters was for a reading of 53.

The October reading was the highest since 56.0 in April 2006.

A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, while a number above 50 means expansion.

Meanwhile, U.S. construction spending made its largest gain in a year in September, the Commerce Department said on Monday, bolstered by a record pace in public construction and the biggest increase in private residential building in more than six years.

The Commerce Department said spending on construction projects rose 0.8 percent to $940.3 billion, after dropping 0.1 percent in August. Spending originally was reported as rising 0.8 percent in August.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected spending to fall 0.2 percent.

Public construction, fueled by billions of dollars of capital works spending in the U.S. economic stimulus plan, rose 1.3 percent to $326.4 billion, an all-time high, after falling 1.1 percent in August. State and local construction, which was up 1.4 percent after being down 0.5 percent in August, also reached an all-time high.

Home building rose 3.9 percent, its largest gain since rising 4.2 percent in July 2003, in a sign that strength may be returning to the devastated housing market. The prior month's increase was revised down to 3.8 percent from the previously reported 4.7 percent.

The Commerce Department said spending on construction projects rose 0.8 percent to $940.3 billion, after dropping 0.1 percent in August. Spending originally was reported as rising 0.8 percent in August.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected spending to fall 0.2 percent.

Public construction, fueled by billions of dollars of capital works spending in the U.S. economic stimulus plan, rose 1.3 percent to $326.4 billion, an all-time high, after falling 1.1 percent in August. State and local construction, which was up 1.4 percent after being down 0.5 percent in August, also reached an all-time high.

Home building rose 3.9 percent, its largest gain since rising 4.2 percent in July 2003, in a sign that strength may be returning to the devastated housing market. The prior month's increase was revised down to 3.8 percent from the previously reported 4.7 percent.

Monday, November 2, 2009

Stocks worth a look









The stock market has been declining for quite some time. It is definitely a better time to buy stocks now compared to 2-3 weeks ago. Many of them are trading near theirs support levels. I believe these stocks provide us with good trading opportunities.

Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Ltd is due to released its quarterly report very soon (11/11/2009) and i think it would release a good report. HKEX-CB (call warrant) is listed in KLSE. Bursa and HKEX share the same business model. Bursa is trading near its support level too.

General Electric Co has been declining for the last half a month since it released a not-so-good quarterly report. The reason i see GE-C1 (call warrant listed in KLSE) as a good trading opportunity is because GE has not really recover much in the current rally since March. GE was trading above $40 in Oct 2007 but now it is trading around $14. In my humble opinion, GE's fundamental is still pretty much intact.

Genting Malaysia (GENM) is fundamentally strong with lots of cash. SAFE! With its mother trading near its support, GENM-CK and GENM-CJ should provide us with good trading opportunities too.

Bank of America (BAC) and Citigroup (C) are trading near their support levels, as well. I really think the worst is over for US financial companies. These financial companies share price should slowly move up. There are call warrants listed in KLSE for BAC and C.

I think current short-term downtrend is near its end. Hopefully i am right.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

US Companies Holding More Cash: Report

U.S. companies hurt by the global credit crisis are continuing to hold more cash, even as the economy begins to show signs of improvement, the Wall Street Journal said, citing its analysis of company filings.

In the second quarter, the 500 largest non-financial U.S. companies by total assets held about $994 billion in cash and short-term investments, or 9.8 percent of their assets, according to the paper's analysis of corporate filings.

In contrast, the companies held $846 billion, or 7.9 percent of assets, a year ago, the paper said.

The trend seems to have continued in the third quarter, despite an improving economy, the paper said.

The 248 companies that have reported third-quarter results so far saw their cash holdings go up by a percentage point sequentially to 11.1 percent of assets, the paper said.

Companies such as Alcoa, Google , PepsiCo and Texas Instruments reported big third-quarter increases in cash holdings, the paper said.

Saturday, October 24, 2009

KLK-CH 50% unrealised profit


Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK) is engaged in the business of producing and processing palm products and natural rubber on its plantations. The Company’s subsidiaries are engaged in the business of plantation, manufacturing, retailing, property development and investment holding. The Company has a plantation land bank of more than 210,000 hectares in Malaysia (Peninsular and Sabah) and Indonesia (Belitung, Sumatra and Kalimantan). It operates in six business segments: plantation, manufacturing, retailing, property development, investment holding and others. In April 2009, the Company, via one of its subsidiary, acquired a 17% equity interest in PT Sekarbumi Alamlestari (PT SA) from Forever Green Venture Ltd., which increased its interest in PT SA to 65%. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2008, the Company acquired Ladang Perbadanan-Fima Berhad, and disposed of a 60% stake in Barry Callebaut Malaysia Sdn Bhd, formerly KL-Kepong Cocoa Products Sdn Bhd.

To be frank, I am not really very interested in plantation stock. After looking through Sime, IOICorp and KLK stock performances, I have to admit that these plantation companies' share price are stable and consistently climbing up. There are hardly any big corrections for their share prices. I guess I will start to study plantation sector too.

On 8 September 2009, I bought KLK call warrant (KLK-ch) at RM0.205. I can remember it was trading at 2-3% discount with gearing of 3-4. I really like warrants/call warrants with discount.

Basically my strategy is very simple, i just try to look for those low premium (if not discount) warrant/call warrant with its mother trading near its resistance. At the same time, the fundamental of the company must be Ok. The fundamental of the companies do not have to be very good.

Now KLK-ch is trading at RM0.295. This trade provides me with unrealized profit of almost 50% in 6 weeks of holding period.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

Friday, October 23, 2009

Budget 2010: Khazanah, banks, Bursa, rating agencies' response

Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar
Managing Director, Khazanah Nasional Bhd



This was a delicate budget to craft given the trilemma of the fragility of the global economic recovery, the need to address the fiscal deficit and the urgent drive for structural transformation towards a more innovative and competitive economy.

Against this difficult backdrop, it was a balanced yet bold budget. The evidence of taking the bull by its horns is most apparent in the significant cut in government expenditure, the first in 23 years, and especially in operating expenditure.

While the market and the public will await the crucial implementation details, the boldness of the budget is also evident in addressing difficult but pivotal issues such as the focus to reduce fuel subsidies, some early moves towards a more open and progressive automotive policy, preparing the ground for a broader tax base and tackling bureaucracy in critical areas such as education and human capital policies.

The ongoing work and the repeated focus on NKRAs will certainly help support the need to get greater bang for the limited buck that a fiscal consolidation year will demand.

There is much for Khazanah and our Government-Linked Companies (GLCs) to continue doing and supporting in this budget; from driving and aggregating private investments, implementing investments in niche growth sectors and continuing with our transformation programme.


Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar
President & CEO of Maybank and Chairman of the Association of Banks in Malaysia



I must say that I am pleasantly surprised by the Government's commitment to reduce Budget deficit from 7.4% in 2009 to 5.6% in 2010. This is more aggressive than the level forecast by most analysts at around 7 to 8%.

This should instill greater confidence in the Government's prudent financial management, promotion of 'value for money' concept in spending, targetted fuel subsidy management and even instilling the entrepreneurial spirit among civil servants.

I am referring to the proposal to encourage Government agencies to rent out their premises & equipment to third parties where they get to keep 50% of the revenues!

For the financial services industry, we welcome the extension of tax incentives for the promotion of Islamic financial services and further liberalisation of the capital markets.

The flexible brokerage sharing between stockbrokers and remisiers will allow greater flexibility for brokers to reward good performing remisiers which is currently capped at 40% of brokerage fee. We also welcome the mandating of electronic payment of dividends for listed companies which will further promote e-payments and reduce administrative burden of listed companies and shareholders alike.

The Budget 2010, however, contained two aspects which will affect the financial services industry. Firstly on the introduction of RM50 per annum service tax for credit and charge cards. Secondly on the reintroduction of RPGT, albeit at a much lower rate of 5%.

Whilst this may reduce some speculative elements in the property market, it will also result in lower growth in housing/property loans for the banks.

For the individual taxpayers, there is plenty to cheer in the form of higher tax reliefs totaling RM2,500 (inclusive of broadband subscription) and lowering of top personal income tax rate from 27% to 26%. Thank you YAB Prime Minister.

Datuk Seri Nazir Razak
Group Chief Executive, CIMB Group

It's a well crafted, action oriented budget. It is refreshing to see initiatives that are so consistent with the announced thrusts and policy direction of the administration.

The budget will stimulate the private sector, enable us to reduce dependency on the government and set the stage for the new economic model, while the forecasts made will alleviate concerns about the fiscal deficit.

We also welcome the liberalisation of remisier commission sharing as this is well overdue and will enhance competitiveness of the stockbroking industry.

Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff
Chief Executive Officer, BURSA MALAYSIA BHD []



The 2010 Budget announcement made by the Prime Minister today certainly reinforced the Government's commitment towards ensuring steady and sustainable long-term economic growth. We are pleased with some of the measures announced in stimulating the capital market.

The liberalisation of the commission sharing arrangement between stockbrokers and remisiers will balance the risk-return ratio for the remisiers. This market based commission incentive model will motivate the remisiers towards galvanising more interest by investors in the stock market as an investment option. We also hope that this market based incentive model will see more new blood entering the industry.

In moving towards a more internationalised investment platform, we are pleased to note the allowance of 100% foreign equity participation in corporate finance and corporate financial planning companies. We hope this will see more international names capitalising on this opportunity, and diversify the level of offerings and talents to benefit the Malaysian market. We also see this spurring more corporate actions in the market.

Bursa Malaysia has always worked towards increasing business and operational efficiency and we believe that TECHNOLOGY has served us well in giving greater efficiency, access and convenience, as is evident in our implementation of services such as Direct Market Access (DMA).

We are also seeing electronic trading gain greater traffic as time goes by and this certainly complements the announcement that all listed companies are required to offer e-Dividends to their shareholders. This will reduce time and provide convenience to the shareholders. As a listed company, Bursa Malaysia already offers its shareholders e-Dividend payment mode as an option for the benefit of its shareholders. Issuers too, will benefit from the ease of implementation.

The Government's objective to reduce financial dependence via privatisation of some of its companies and agencies will hopefully see these government assets coming to the capital market to raise funds via listing.

Bursa Malaysia is committed to efforts to position the country as an Islamic investment hub, and we are pleased with the announcements made in today's Budget that further cement this intent. We look at the announcements collectively as an incentive to further facilitate the internationalisation of our Islamic finance capabilities and attract foreign issuers and non-Ringgit issuers to Malaysia.

The stamp duty exemption of 20% on Islamic financing instruments will encourage further issuance of sukuk and Islamic finance notes. In giving tax exemption on banking profits derived from overseas operations, it will encourage the internationalisation of banks and we see a spillover effect to complement capital market activities. We see these announcements facilitative of our efforts in making Malaysia the preferred destination for Islamic finance investment and fundraising.

I am pleased to note that amidst the incentives to enhance the competitiveness of the capital market, protecting the integrity of the market and country has not been compromised. We are encouraged by the Government's stance on the formulation of a Whistle Blower Act. This will greatly complement our corporate governance framework that will ensure that we maintain a market of integrity.

Jeffrey Chew
Director & CEO, OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Bhd



In the 2010 National Budget, the Prime Minister has hit the right notes to reshape the economy by focusing on education, ICT and green technology to propel the nation into a high income economy. At the rakyat level, consumers would now enjoy a greater level of disposable income via the various tax deductions and other personal tax relief.

The budget deficit for 2010 is estimated at 5.6% of GDP, which we believe is achievable. The lower deficit position is mainly due to the government's proposed total allocations of RM191.5b, down 11.2% from the previous 2009 allocations of RM215.7b. The move toward improving fiscal discipline is laudable especially since the Malaysian economy is expected to see a less severe contraction of 3% this year and should recover to grow by 2-3% in 2010. Generally, we view the Government's intention to reduce its deficit position will be positive to the debt capital market as the supply of Government securities are no longer expected to blow out of proportion.

The budget's focus on private investment, especially in attracting FDIs and privatising companies under MOF, is a good economic initiative to strengthen the growth drivers.

Retail banking
While we understand the Government's effort to encourage prudent spending, we are concerned over the imposition of the service tax of RM50 for principal credit cards and RM25 for supplementary cards respectively. This may only increase the burden of both the industry and the consumer. The credit card is a product of payment convenience and facilitates cash substitution. Therefore, the imposition of this tax would not curb its usage or necessarily encourage prudent spending.

The imposition of the 5% real capital gains tax on PROPERTIES is a counter-productive move in encouraging property investments among local and foreign investors, particularly in attracting REITs investors. Furthermore, this would make Malaysia's property market less attractive as compared to our neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia despite our property prices being among the lowest in the region.

Capital markets
The tax neutrality between conventional and Islamic financing has been further fine-tuned to ensure that the non-RM sukuk market is given further prominence with various tax incentives. These include tax exemptions on profits derived and expenses incurred from the issuance of sukuk and special purpose vehicles (SPV) established under the Offshore Companies Act for the purposes of issuance of Islamic securities, amongst others.

Whilst these measures will indeed drive the supply of non-RM sukuk and thus position the country as a strong regional Islamic sukuk hub, critical measures are still required to be undertaken to develop a regional-level sukuk market. These entail, amongst others, developing a regional clearing & settlement system, a vibrant secondary market by virtue of price transparency, promoting regional credit rating agencies and harmonising Shariah standards.

Islamic banking
We are encouraged by the Government's continued commitment to Islamic banking with the various tax incentives that continue to be granted. This augurs well for our efforts to make Malaysia a vibrant Islamic finance hub.

Najib Abdullah
Group Managing Director, MIDF


Malaysian Industrial Development Finance Berhad (MIDF) said it is confident Budget 2010 will provide the necessary momentum to the economy amid signs that a revival is under way. It is also a precursor to the new economic model that the government is formulating.

The stimulus programme has been an effective response to the global financial crisis and the government appears to be building an orderly exit framework. It is important to ensure that such a programme does not become a permanently entrenched feature of the public sector as it is definitely not sustainable over the long term.

Although total government spending in 2010 is budgeted to be 11.3% lower than that this year, most of the cutback will come from operating expenditure and not development expenditure.

This is a clear indication that the government is focused on enhancing the management of public services, rooting out operational inefficiencies. It is about increasing productivity and channelling precious resources towards capability building and more strategic purposes.

An indictment of this is the fact that total government's subsidies budgeted next year is only RM20.9 billion, down from the RM24.5 billion spent in 2009 and RM35.2 billion in 2008.

The message is clear - moving forward, subsidies will be more discriminating and targeted, rather than inefficiently spread across the board.

Through its Development Finance Division, MIDF was allocated RM50 million and RM125 million under the First and Second Stimulus Package respectively to be extended to SMEs and non-SMEs in the form of soft loans.

Soft Loan Scheme for Services Capacity Development (SLSCD), provided in the first stimulus package was aimed at improving the productivity of the services sector while the Soft Loan Scheme for Automotive Development (SLSAD) is to assist the automotive parts and components manufacturers to rationalise their operations.

To date, the allocations under the SLSCD has been fully committed. As for SLSAD, RM86.2 million has been approved. MIDF has sufficient applications in the pipeline to take-up the balance of SLSAD and we foresee the funds will be exhausted by the end of the year.

From MIDF's standpoint, the Budget is conducive for the business community given the focus on the services sector as the GDP growth driver in 2010. The 20101 budget has laid the foundation for a new and holistic economic model.

As a strategic business enabler to the 548,267 Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) companies in Malaysia, which make up 99.2% of all established businesses in the country and contribute 32% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), MIDF is pleased to note that the interests of the SMEs are addressed in the Budget.

This is in consonant with the overall objective to raise the contribution of SMEs to GDP to 37% by 2010, from the 32% estimated in 2005. The move to rationalise the number of funds and grants, as well as enforcing the deadlines for micro financing approvals and disbursements are positive for the growth and development of the SMEs in Malaysia.

The 2010 Budget announcement is timely since the previous SME funds allocated to MIDF through SME Corp. had all been fully committed. MIDF lauds the announcement on the additional RM350 million SME funds, of which RM200 million will be made available in the form of soft loans. These soft loans will give access for SMEs to tap for funding at concessionary interest rates.

MIDF's role is to facilitate the accessibility of these funds to SMEs and provide continuous effort aimed at building their capabilities and capacities to stay resilient and competitive, thus contribute to the country's drive towards high income economy.

The Malaysian capital market is experiencing a recovery currently with the FBM KLCI index closing the week at 1,267 points, its best performance this year. The move to liberalise the commission structure with effect from 2011 in the equity market will carry positive long-term benefits, as it will create more robust competition.

This also applies to the move to allow full foreign ownership in corporate finance and financial planning firms. MIDF welcomes further moves to liberalise the financial services sector as it believes that competition and market forces are necessary ingredients for a robust capital market and more importantly the rakyat.

In the final analysis, the Budget has painted a generally cautious optimistic macro scenario next year, with GDP growth projected to be at only 2.5%, a pace which is slower than the world's output growth as projected by the IMF. It reflects conservative baseline expectation with regard to the economic performance in the U.S. and major Europe. Should there be a meaningful turnaround in those economies, MIDF expects Malaysia to stand ready to reap the benefits and growth could be more robust than anticipated.

Winter Chill

Dear Winter Chill,

Thank you very much for your support. At the same time i would like to apologize to you as i never respond to your comments. It is because i never realize if there are any comments on my blog. It is my mistake. In future, i would try best to respond to your comments. I really appreciate it.

Good luck.

yours truly,
GOon

HwangDBS sees stronger steel demand ahead

HWANGDBS Vickers Research said current steel prices are being supported by restocking activities, and while the prices of steel bars and rods of between RM2,200 and RM2,300 per tonne could dip at the end of the year although upcoming mega projects will help maintain prices in 2010.

“Although the timing of these mega projects is still fluid, we understand that packages of the more imminent low-cost carrier terminal and Pahang-Selangor water transfer projects are likely to be awarded by end-2009 and 2Q10, respectively,” the research house said.

With the current restocking activities improving steel demand, utilisation at most steel mills had risen since June 2009, with KINSTEEL BHD []’s upstream utilisation jumping to 100% from 50%, and SOUTHERN STEEL BHD []’s overall utilisation rising from a low of 50%.

It added that as a result of the improved utilisation, coupled with stronger steel prices, gross margins improved in 2Q09, with Southern Steel recording a 2% gross profit margin versus an 11% gross loss in 1Q09, while Kinsteel’s gross loss narrowed 33% quarter-on-quarter.

“We anticipate margins to continue to improve over the next few quarters, and foresee better earnings visibility in FY10-FY11F,” it said.

HwangDBS Vickers also said in addition to the government’s mega projects expected to deliver “meaningful new demand in FY10-FY11, the sector should benefit from a weaker US dollar versus the ringgit. It said between 60% and 70% of domestic scrap requirements, mainly denominated in dollar, and all iron ore were imported.

The research house also expected 3Q09 to show positive operating earnings compared to losses in 1H09, driven by margin improvement as a result of recovering steel prices and higher capacity utilisation, while the inventory holding period had also improved to three months from between four and six months at the start of the year. It said following that, both Southern Steel and Kinsteel had stronger cash flow positions.

Meanwhile, it said going forward, downside risks for steel players should be limited following the recovery in feedstock prices, with the international price for iron ore at stable levels for the past 10 months, and now hovering at an average of US$103/tonne (RM349).

The research house has upgraded Southern Steel and Kinsteel to buy from hold, with target prices of RM2.40 and RM1.30, respectively.

The target prices were based on 1.3 times net tangible asset (NTA), consistent with one standard deviation of the respective historical means. “At our target prices for Southern Steel and Kinsteel, they would be trading at 12.1 times and 13.7 times CY10F earnings,” added HwangDBS.