The head and shoulders pattern is generally regarded as a reversal pattern and it is most often seen in uptrends. It is also most reliable when found in an uptrend as well. Eventually, the market begins to slow down and the forces of supply and demand are generally considered in balance. Sellers come in at the highs (left shoulder) and the downside is probed (beginning neckline.) Buyers soon return to the market and ultimately push through to new highs (head.) However, the new highs are quickly turned back and the downside is tested again (continuing neckline.) Tentative buying re-emerges and the market rallies once more, but fails to take out the previous high. (This last top is considered the right shoulder.) Buying dries up and the market tests the downside yet again. Your trendline for this pattern should be drawn from the beginning neckline to the continuing neckline. (Volume has a greater importance in the head and shoulders pattern in comparison to other patterns. Volume generally follows the price higher on the left shoulder. However, the head is formed on diminished volume indicating the buyers aren't as aggressive as they once were. And on the last rallying attempt-the left shoulder-volume is even lighter than on the head, signaling that the buyers may have exhausted themselves.) New selling comes in and previous buyers get out. The pattern is complete when the market breaks the neckline. (Volume should increase on the breakout.)
A technical analysis term used to describe a chart formation in which a stock's price:
1. Rises to a peak and subsequently declines.
2. Then, the price rises above the former peak and again declines.
3. And finally, rises again, but not to the second peak, and declines once more.
The first and third peaks are shoulders, and the second peak forms the head.
The "head-and-shoulders" pattern is believed to be one of the most reliable trend-reversal patterns.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thursday, June 17, 2010
Sell In May and Go Away?
I am a bit confused each time when i hear others talking about "sell in May and go away". I assume that they mean that the market will go down from May till October. Statistically, this is correct for most of the time that the market tends to be more bearish during this period. I think it has become a self-fulfilling prophecy.
There are a few Self-Fulfilling Prophecies such as:
• Sell in May and Go Away
• October Effect
• Santa Claus Rally
• January Barometer
If most of us know that the market tends to be more bearish during May-October period, why don't we trade Put Warrants/Put Options during this period? By doing this, we still could earn a handsome profit when the market goes down. So why should sell in May and go away? I guess most of us are still trapped in the traditional way of thinking that we could only make money if the market goes up.
Warrants and options are very good financial instruments when stock market major trend is clear. When the market is bullish, it is good to trade call warrants/options, and when the market is bearish, it is good to trade put warrants/options.
There are a few put warrants listed on KLSE. They are ridiculously expensive in term of their high premium.I don't think the market markers/issuers for these put warrants are sincere enough to develop our Malaysian warrant market. I guess this is the reason why many full-time traders that I know are not trading our at KLSE instead they choose to trade oversea stock markets.
Personally, I also preferred our oversea stock market put warrants/option, at least i don't have to pay 20%-100%++ of premium for a put warrant. Moreover, these put warrants (KLSE) are extremely low in liquidity.
GOon
There are a few Self-Fulfilling Prophecies such as:
• Sell in May and Go Away
• October Effect
• Santa Claus Rally
• January Barometer
If most of us know that the market tends to be more bearish during May-October period, why don't we trade Put Warrants/Put Options during this period? By doing this, we still could earn a handsome profit when the market goes down. So why should sell in May and go away? I guess most of us are still trapped in the traditional way of thinking that we could only make money if the market goes up.
Warrants and options are very good financial instruments when stock market major trend is clear. When the market is bullish, it is good to trade call warrants/options, and when the market is bearish, it is good to trade put warrants/options.
There are a few put warrants listed on KLSE. They are ridiculously expensive in term of their high premium.I don't think the market markers/issuers for these put warrants are sincere enough to develop our Malaysian warrant market. I guess this is the reason why many full-time traders that I know are not trading our at KLSE instead they choose to trade oversea stock markets.
Personally, I also preferred our oversea stock market put warrants/option, at least i don't have to pay 20%-100%++ of premium for a put warrant. Moreover, these put warrants (KLSE) are extremely low in liquidity.
GOon
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Technical Levels—Not News— Become Main Driver of Markets
Technical Levels—Not News— Become Main Driver of Markets
For KLSE, on the 30 minute chart, support is at 1294 and it is likely heading toward 1314. On the daily chart, KLCI has crossed above MA and it is likely to move toward 1324. I strongly do not expect it to hit a new high (above 1350) since it is just a technical rebound.
As much as Greece, the oil spill and the economy, the markets these days are moved by wild swings between technical levels that at times overshadow the underlying fundamentals.
"Technicals matter in this market," Pimco co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian proclaimed in a CNBC interview Tuesday, underscoring and perhaps understating just how much statistical measures of market behavior influence trading.
In particular, analysts have been watching support tests on the Standard & Poor's 500 around the 1040 level and top-side resistance near 1110 as an important gauge for whether the market can stay out of the recently breached correction territory and resume the aggressive bull-market run that preceded it.
"Since your valuations look good, people become more focused on technicals because now they're looking for another measure to gauge their risk," says Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG in New York. "They already know they're getting good valuations. You're looking for secondary indicators to key decisions off."
Of course, traders and shorter-term investors have always followed metrics like the 50- and 200-day moving averages—trend lines that track the market's movement over time intervals which are used to determine where it's headed next.
A close above a moving average for several consecutive trading days indicates a breakout higher, while breaching a low often means the opposite.
Such levels certainly can be driven by news events, but often became strong psychological barriers that trigger buying and selling independent of the headlines.
O'Rourke says he is watching the CBOE Volatility Index for clues. With the VIX holding below 30, he thinks the market could have an upward bias but will need help from economic indicators, in particular weekly jobless claims, which have stayed stubbornly high.
The market has bounced off a more than 13 percent correction-level downturn, with buyers stepping in whenever the S&P gets near the 1040 but hesitating when it approaches the 1110 barrier, which represents the 200-day moving average.
"From a macro basis, it's going to be a situation where you're stuck in this trading range, which is the technicals, unless something unforeseen happens," says Alan B. Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz and Associates in Toledo, Ohio. "In that sense, it's going to take an awfully big piece of news to trump the technical levels right now."
In such an environment, the investment strategy is pretty straightforward, says Lancz: Sell into rallies and buy the dips until the market shows signs of a breakout.
"Get more defensive. Look at companies that haven't moved yet if you do have this trading-range type of market," he says. "You can buy more cyclical companies that have taken a beating—BP, energy—that can offer some opportunity for a bounce-back rally."
In a detailed analysis of the S&P's pressure points, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Mary Ann Bartels predicts the range "could break to the upside" past 1110 on its way to the next resistance level of 1150.
However, she notes a break below 1044 would bring a test of 950 to 1,000 into play and probably would take the bullish forecast of 1300 by year's end off the table.
"It seems the market is finally in a position to react to oversold conditions in the short-term indicators," writes Bartels, the firm's technical research analyst.
A separate analysis from Standard & Poor's points out that the 13.7 percent correction decline that bottomed out on June 7 is right on the nose with the average of the previous 17 completed corrections since 1945.
While investors shouldn't be too quick to assume the correction is over—the averages have since left correction territory—Sam Stovall, S&P chief investment strategist, said the market "now may be ready to rally" even though gyrations likely are not finished.
Stovall identified 13 "sub-industries" that could benefit from a breakout, among them auto parts and equipment; office electronics; diversified financial services; apparel, accessories and luxury goods; and technology distributors.
"The decline for the S&P 500 was amazingly dead-on with historical average," Stovall said in a note to clients. "Yet these earlier sell-offs took an average of four months to bottom out, and a similar length of time to get back to breakeven. This recent decline took less than half that time to materialize, so we will likely have more ups and downs to endure before all is said and done."
For KLSE, on the 30 minute chart, support is at 1294 and it is likely heading toward 1314. On the daily chart, KLCI has crossed above MA and it is likely to move toward 1324. I strongly do not expect it to hit a new high (above 1350) since it is just a technical rebound.
As much as Greece, the oil spill and the economy, the markets these days are moved by wild swings between technical levels that at times overshadow the underlying fundamentals.
"Technicals matter in this market," Pimco co-CEO Mohamed El-Erian proclaimed in a CNBC interview Tuesday, underscoring and perhaps understating just how much statistical measures of market behavior influence trading.
In particular, analysts have been watching support tests on the Standard & Poor's 500 around the 1040 level and top-side resistance near 1110 as an important gauge for whether the market can stay out of the recently breached correction territory and resume the aggressive bull-market run that preceded it.
"Since your valuations look good, people become more focused on technicals because now they're looking for another measure to gauge their risk," says Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG in New York. "They already know they're getting good valuations. You're looking for secondary indicators to key decisions off."
Of course, traders and shorter-term investors have always followed metrics like the 50- and 200-day moving averages—trend lines that track the market's movement over time intervals which are used to determine where it's headed next.
A close above a moving average for several consecutive trading days indicates a breakout higher, while breaching a low often means the opposite.
Such levels certainly can be driven by news events, but often became strong psychological barriers that trigger buying and selling independent of the headlines.
O'Rourke says he is watching the CBOE Volatility Index for clues. With the VIX holding below 30, he thinks the market could have an upward bias but will need help from economic indicators, in particular weekly jobless claims, which have stayed stubbornly high.
The market has bounced off a more than 13 percent correction-level downturn, with buyers stepping in whenever the S&P gets near the 1040 but hesitating when it approaches the 1110 barrier, which represents the 200-day moving average.
"From a macro basis, it's going to be a situation where you're stuck in this trading range, which is the technicals, unless something unforeseen happens," says Alan B. Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz and Associates in Toledo, Ohio. "In that sense, it's going to take an awfully big piece of news to trump the technical levels right now."
In such an environment, the investment strategy is pretty straightforward, says Lancz: Sell into rallies and buy the dips until the market shows signs of a breakout.
"Get more defensive. Look at companies that haven't moved yet if you do have this trading-range type of market," he says. "You can buy more cyclical companies that have taken a beating—BP, energy—that can offer some opportunity for a bounce-back rally."
In a detailed analysis of the S&P's pressure points, Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Mary Ann Bartels predicts the range "could break to the upside" past 1110 on its way to the next resistance level of 1150.
However, she notes a break below 1044 would bring a test of 950 to 1,000 into play and probably would take the bullish forecast of 1300 by year's end off the table.
"It seems the market is finally in a position to react to oversold conditions in the short-term indicators," writes Bartels, the firm's technical research analyst.
A separate analysis from Standard & Poor's points out that the 13.7 percent correction decline that bottomed out on June 7 is right on the nose with the average of the previous 17 completed corrections since 1945.
While investors shouldn't be too quick to assume the correction is over—the averages have since left correction territory—Sam Stovall, S&P chief investment strategist, said the market "now may be ready to rally" even though gyrations likely are not finished.
Stovall identified 13 "sub-industries" that could benefit from a breakout, among them auto parts and equipment; office electronics; diversified financial services; apparel, accessories and luxury goods; and technology distributors.
"The decline for the S&P 500 was amazingly dead-on with historical average," Stovall said in a note to clients. "Yet these earlier sell-offs took an average of four months to bottom out, and a similar length of time to get back to breakeven. This recent decline took less than half that time to materialize, so we will likely have more ups and downs to endure before all is said and done."
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
BLASH trading approach
There is a story about a speculator whose desire to be a winner was intensified by each successive failure. He tried fundamental analysis, chart analysis, computerized trading systems, and even a number of esoteric techniques ranging from wave counting to astrology. Although each of these approaches seemed to work well on paper, once he started to place actual trades based on these methods an odd thing happened: His short positions inevitably seemed to be followed by towering bull markets, and steady uptrends had an uncanny tendency to reverse course after he went long. After years of frustration, he finally gave up in exasperation.
It was at this point that he heard of a famous guru who lived on a remote mountain in the Himalayas and who answered the questions of all pilgrims who sought him out. The trader boarded a plane to Nepal, hired guides, and set out on a two-month trek. Finally, completely exhausted, he reached the famous guru.
"Oh Wise One," he said, "I am a frustrated man. For many years I have sought the key to successful trading, but everything I have tried has failed. What is secret?"
The guru paused for only a moment, and, staring at his visitor intently, answered, "BLASH." He said no more.
"BLASH?" The trader returned home. He did not understand the answer. It filled his mind every waking moment, but he could not fathom its meaning. He repeated the story to many, until finally one listener interpreted the guru's response.
"It's quite simple," he said. "Buy low and sell high."
The guru;s message is apt to disappoint readers seeking the key to trading wisdom. BLASH does not satisfy our concept of an insight, because it appears to be a matter of common sense. However, if, as Voltaire suggested, "Common sense is not so common," neither is it obvious. For example, consider the following question: What are the trading implications of a market reaching new highs: The "commonsense" BLASH theory would unambiguously indicate the subsequent trading activity should be confined to the short side.
Very likely, a large percentage of speculators would be comfortable with this interpretation. Perhaps the appeal of the BLASH approach is tied to the desire of most traders to demonstrate their brilliance. After all, any fool can buy the market after a long uptrend, but it takes genius to fade the trend and pick a top. In any case, few trading responses are as instinctive as the bias toward buying when prices are low and selling when prices are high.
As a result, many speculators have a strong predilection toward favoring the short side when a market trades at new high levels. There is only one thing wrong with this approach: it doesn't work. Why? Because market's ability to reach and sustain new highs is usually evidence of powerful underlying forces that often push prices much higher. Common sense? Certainly. But note that the trading implications are exactly opposite to those of the "commonsense" BLASH approach.
The point of all of this is that many of our commonsense instincts about market behavior are wrong. Chart analysis provides a means of acquiring common sense in trading- a goal far more elusive than it sounds. For example, if prior to beginning trading an individual exhaustively researched historical price charts to determine the consequences of market reaching new highs, he or she would have a strong advantage in avoiding one of the common pitfalls that await the novice trader. Similarly, other market truths can be gleaned through a careful study of historical price patterns.
It must be acknowledged, however, that the usefulness of charts as an indicator of future price direction is a fiercely contested subject.
Fundamental and technical analysis are important to successful trading.,
Good luck.
GOon
It was at this point that he heard of a famous guru who lived on a remote mountain in the Himalayas and who answered the questions of all pilgrims who sought him out. The trader boarded a plane to Nepal, hired guides, and set out on a two-month trek. Finally, completely exhausted, he reached the famous guru.
"Oh Wise One," he said, "I am a frustrated man. For many years I have sought the key to successful trading, but everything I have tried has failed. What is secret?"
The guru paused for only a moment, and, staring at his visitor intently, answered, "BLASH." He said no more.
"BLASH?" The trader returned home. He did not understand the answer. It filled his mind every waking moment, but he could not fathom its meaning. He repeated the story to many, until finally one listener interpreted the guru's response.
"It's quite simple," he said. "Buy low and sell high."
The guru;s message is apt to disappoint readers seeking the key to trading wisdom. BLASH does not satisfy our concept of an insight, because it appears to be a matter of common sense. However, if, as Voltaire suggested, "Common sense is not so common," neither is it obvious. For example, consider the following question: What are the trading implications of a market reaching new highs: The "commonsense" BLASH theory would unambiguously indicate the subsequent trading activity should be confined to the short side.
Very likely, a large percentage of speculators would be comfortable with this interpretation. Perhaps the appeal of the BLASH approach is tied to the desire of most traders to demonstrate their brilliance. After all, any fool can buy the market after a long uptrend, but it takes genius to fade the trend and pick a top. In any case, few trading responses are as instinctive as the bias toward buying when prices are low and selling when prices are high.
As a result, many speculators have a strong predilection toward favoring the short side when a market trades at new high levels. There is only one thing wrong with this approach: it doesn't work. Why? Because market's ability to reach and sustain new highs is usually evidence of powerful underlying forces that often push prices much higher. Common sense? Certainly. But note that the trading implications are exactly opposite to those of the "commonsense" BLASH approach.
The point of all of this is that many of our commonsense instincts about market behavior are wrong. Chart analysis provides a means of acquiring common sense in trading- a goal far more elusive than it sounds. For example, if prior to beginning trading an individual exhaustively researched historical price charts to determine the consequences of market reaching new highs, he or she would have a strong advantage in avoiding one of the common pitfalls that await the novice trader. Similarly, other market truths can be gleaned through a careful study of historical price patterns.
It must be acknowledged, however, that the usefulness of charts as an indicator of future price direction is a fiercely contested subject.
Fundamental and technical analysis are important to successful trading.,
Good luck.
GOon
Monday, June 14, 2010
Axiata-cc deeply undervalue with potential profit of 19%.
Currently, there are a few call warrants that i think are really worth a look and Axiata-cc is certainly one of them.
Axiata had just released a strong quarterly financial report on 27th May 2010. Axiata and Digi signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore long-term network and infrastructure collaboration in Malaysia. These are good news to Axiata and I expect more good news to come.
There are a few Axiata call warrants listed on KLSE and among them i like Axiata-cc the most. Currently, Axiata-cc comes with a discount of 4.5%, gearing 4.16 and expiry date 5/8/2010. It is currently trading at RM0.185. It means that Axiata-cc should up 19% or RM0.035 to finish up the discount and the fair value should be RM0.22.
Axiata-cc is an European styled call warrant therefore we can't exercise it now. In my humble opinion, when a call warrant is in discount territory the nearer it is to its expiry date the better it is.
Ok, good luck.
GOon
Read more: 'Axiata, DiGi network sharing to cut costs' http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20100611110005/Article/#ixzz0ql9ZDtyB
Axiata posts strong Q1 results
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20100527203340/Article/
Axiata had just released a strong quarterly financial report on 27th May 2010. Axiata and Digi signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) to explore long-term network and infrastructure collaboration in Malaysia. These are good news to Axiata and I expect more good news to come.
There are a few Axiata call warrants listed on KLSE and among them i like Axiata-cc the most. Currently, Axiata-cc comes with a discount of 4.5%, gearing 4.16 and expiry date 5/8/2010. It is currently trading at RM0.185. It means that Axiata-cc should up 19% or RM0.035 to finish up the discount and the fair value should be RM0.22.
Axiata-cc is an European styled call warrant therefore we can't exercise it now. In my humble opinion, when a call warrant is in discount territory the nearer it is to its expiry date the better it is.
Ok, good luck.
GOon
Read more: 'Axiata, DiGi network sharing to cut costs' http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20100611110005/Article/#ixzz0ql9ZDtyB
Axiata posts strong Q1 results
http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/20100527203340/Article/
Friday, May 7, 2010
erroneous trades caused US Stocks to fall nearly 10 pct
A computerized selloff possibly caused by a simple typographical error triggered one of the most turbulent days in Wall Street history Thursday and sent the Dow Jones industrials to a loss of almost 1,000 points, nearly a tenth of their value, in less than half an hour. It was the biggest drop ever during a trading day.
The Dow recovered two-thirds of the loss before the closing bell, but that was still the biggest point loss since February of last year. The lightning-fast plummet temporarily knocked normally stable stocks such as Procter & Gamble to a tiny fraction of their former value and sent chills down investors' spines.
"Today ... caused me to fall out of my chair at one point. It felt like we lost control," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
No one was sure what happened, other than automated orders were activated by erroneous trades. One possibilility being investigated was that a trader accidentally placed an order to sell $16 billion, instead of $16 million, worth of futures, and that was enough to trigger sell orders across the market.
No one was taking blame, either. The New York Stock Exchange said there was no problem with the Big Board's systems, and all the markets were on a conference call with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Nasdaq issued a statement two hours after the market closed saying it was canceling trades that were executed between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. that it called clearly erroneous. It did not, however, mention a cause of the plunge.
The NYSE also said it would cancel some trades on its electronic platform.
There were reports that the sudden drop was caused by a trader who mistyped an order to sell a large block of stock. The drop in that stock's price was enough to trigger "sell" orders across the market.
The SEC issued a statement saying regulators are reviewing what happened and "working with the exchanges to take appropriate steps to protect investors."
Whatever started the selloff, automated computer trading intensified the losses. The selling only led to more selling as prices plummeted and traders tried to limit their losses.
"I think the machines just took over. There's not a lot of human interaction," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "We've known that automated trading can run away from you, and I think that's what we saw happen today."
The market was already wobbly because of fears that Greece's debt crisis will undermine the economic recovery. Traders watched television coverage of protests in the streets of Athens, and the Dow was down 200 when the selloff began less than two hours before the closing bell.
At 2:20 p.m. EDT, the Dow was at 10,460, a loss of 400 points.
It then tumbled 600 points in seven minutes to its low of the day of 9,869, a drop of 9.2 percent.
On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, stone-faced traders huddled around electronic boards and televisions, silently watching and waiting. Traders' screens were flashing numbers non-stop, with losses shown in solid blocks of red numbers.
Then the market bounced back, about as quickly as it fell. By 3:09 p.m., the Dow had regained 700 points. It then fluctuated sharply until the close. The trading day ended with the Dow down 347.80, or 3.2 percent, at 10,520.
The Dow has lost 631 points, or 5.7 percent, since Tuesday amid worries about Greece. That is the largest three-day percentage drop since March 2009, when the stock market was nearing its bottom following the financial meltdown.
At its lowest Thursday, the Dow was down 998.50 points in its largest point drop ever, eclipsing the 780.87 lost during the course of trading on Oct. 15, 2008, during the height of the financial crisis. The Dow closed that day down 733.08, the biggest closing loss it has ever suffered.
The impact of Thursday's gyrations on some stocks was breathtaking, if brief. Stock in the consulting firm Accenture fell to 4 cents after closing at $42.17 on Wednesday. It recovered to close at $41.09, down just over $1.
Procter & Gamble, generally a stable stock, dropped as much as $23, almost 37 percent, and rallied to close down only $1.41.
Many professional investors and traders use computer program trading to buy and sell orders for large blocks of stocks. The programs use mathematical models that are designed to give a trader the best possible price on shares.
The programs are often set up in advance and allow computers to react instantly to moves in the market. When a stock index drops by a big amount, for example, computers can unleash a torrent of sell orders across the market. They move so fast that prices, and in turn indexes, can plunge at the fast pace seen Thursday.
Even if there were technical issues, concerns about the world economy are running high.
The stock market has had periodic bouts of anxiety about the European economies during the past few months. They have intensified over the past week even as Greece appeared to be moving closer to getting a bailout package from some of its neighbors.
"The market is now realizing that Greece is going to go through a depression over the next couple of years," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Europe is a major trading partner of ours, and this threatens the entire global growth story."
The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the index most closely watched by market pros, fell 37.75, or 3.2 percent, to 1,128.15. The Nasdaq composite index lost 82.65, or 3.4 percent, and closed at 2,319.64.
At the market's lows, all three indexes were showing losses for the year. The Dow now shows a gain of 0.9 percent for 2010, while the S&P is up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.2 percent.
At the close, losses were so widespread that just 173 stocks rose on the NYSE, compared to 3,008 that fell. The major indexes were all down more than 3 percent.
Meanwhile, interest rates on Treasurys soared as traders sought the safety of U.S. government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.4 percent from late Wednesday's 3.54 percent.
The Dow recovered two-thirds of the loss before the closing bell, but that was still the biggest point loss since February of last year. The lightning-fast plummet temporarily knocked normally stable stocks such as Procter & Gamble to a tiny fraction of their former value and sent chills down investors' spines.
"Today ... caused me to fall out of my chair at one point. It felt like we lost control," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago.
No one was sure what happened, other than automated orders were activated by erroneous trades. One possibilility being investigated was that a trader accidentally placed an order to sell $16 billion, instead of $16 million, worth of futures, and that was enough to trigger sell orders across the market.
No one was taking blame, either. The New York Stock Exchange said there was no problem with the Big Board's systems, and all the markets were on a conference call with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
Nasdaq issued a statement two hours after the market closed saying it was canceling trades that were executed between 2:40 p.m. and 3 p.m. that it called clearly erroneous. It did not, however, mention a cause of the plunge.
The NYSE also said it would cancel some trades on its electronic platform.
There were reports that the sudden drop was caused by a trader who mistyped an order to sell a large block of stock. The drop in that stock's price was enough to trigger "sell" orders across the market.
The SEC issued a statement saying regulators are reviewing what happened and "working with the exchanges to take appropriate steps to protect investors."
Whatever started the selloff, automated computer trading intensified the losses. The selling only led to more selling as prices plummeted and traders tried to limit their losses.
"I think the machines just took over. There's not a lot of human interaction," said Charlie Smith, chief investment officer at Fort Pitt Capital Group. "We've known that automated trading can run away from you, and I think that's what we saw happen today."
The market was already wobbly because of fears that Greece's debt crisis will undermine the economic recovery. Traders watched television coverage of protests in the streets of Athens, and the Dow was down 200 when the selloff began less than two hours before the closing bell.
At 2:20 p.m. EDT, the Dow was at 10,460, a loss of 400 points.
It then tumbled 600 points in seven minutes to its low of the day of 9,869, a drop of 9.2 percent.
On the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, stone-faced traders huddled around electronic boards and televisions, silently watching and waiting. Traders' screens were flashing numbers non-stop, with losses shown in solid blocks of red numbers.
Then the market bounced back, about as quickly as it fell. By 3:09 p.m., the Dow had regained 700 points. It then fluctuated sharply until the close. The trading day ended with the Dow down 347.80, or 3.2 percent, at 10,520.
The Dow has lost 631 points, or 5.7 percent, since Tuesday amid worries about Greece. That is the largest three-day percentage drop since March 2009, when the stock market was nearing its bottom following the financial meltdown.
At its lowest Thursday, the Dow was down 998.50 points in its largest point drop ever, eclipsing the 780.87 lost during the course of trading on Oct. 15, 2008, during the height of the financial crisis. The Dow closed that day down 733.08, the biggest closing loss it has ever suffered.
The impact of Thursday's gyrations on some stocks was breathtaking, if brief. Stock in the consulting firm Accenture fell to 4 cents after closing at $42.17 on Wednesday. It recovered to close at $41.09, down just over $1.
Procter & Gamble, generally a stable stock, dropped as much as $23, almost 37 percent, and rallied to close down only $1.41.
Many professional investors and traders use computer program trading to buy and sell orders for large blocks of stocks. The programs use mathematical models that are designed to give a trader the best possible price on shares.
The programs are often set up in advance and allow computers to react instantly to moves in the market. When a stock index drops by a big amount, for example, computers can unleash a torrent of sell orders across the market. They move so fast that prices, and in turn indexes, can plunge at the fast pace seen Thursday.
Even if there were technical issues, concerns about the world economy are running high.
The stock market has had periodic bouts of anxiety about the European economies during the past few months. They have intensified over the past week even as Greece appeared to be moving closer to getting a bailout package from some of its neighbors.
"The market is now realizing that Greece is going to go through a depression over the next couple of years," said Peter Boockvar, equity strategist at Miller Tabak. "Europe is a major trading partner of ours, and this threatens the entire global growth story."
The Standard & Poor's 500 index, the index most closely watched by market pros, fell 37.75, or 3.2 percent, to 1,128.15. The Nasdaq composite index lost 82.65, or 3.4 percent, and closed at 2,319.64.
At the market's lows, all three indexes were showing losses for the year. The Dow now shows a gain of 0.9 percent for 2010, while the S&P is up 1.2 percent and the Nasdaq is up 2.2 percent.
At the close, losses were so widespread that just 173 stocks rose on the NYSE, compared to 3,008 that fell. The major indexes were all down more than 3 percent.
Meanwhile, interest rates on Treasurys soared as traders sought the safety of U.S. government debt. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note, which moves opposite its price, fell to 3.4 percent from late Wednesday's 3.54 percent.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
SEC accuses Goldman Sachs of civil fraud
The government has accused Goldman Sachs & Co. of defrauding investors by failing to disclose conflicts of interest in mortgage investments it sold as the housing market was faltering.
The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Friday civil fraud charges against the Wall Street powerhouse and one of its vice presidents. The agency alleges Goldman failed to disclose that one of its clients helped create -- and then bet against -- subprime mortgage securities that Goldman sold to investors.
Investors in the mortgage securities are alleged to have lost more than $1 billion, the SEC noted.
The Goldman client implicated in the fraud is one of the world's largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., which paid Goldman roughly $15 million for structuring the deals in 2007.
Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 10 percent after the SEC announcement.
The civil lawsuit filed by the SEC in federal court in Manhattan was the government's most significant legal action related to the mortgage meltdown that ignited the financial crisis and helped plunge the country into recession.
A Goldman Sachs spokesman didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.
The agency also charged a Goldman vice president, Fabrice Tourre, 31, who it said was principally responsible for devising the deal and marketing the securities.
The SEC is seeking unspecified fines and restitution from Goldman Sachs and Tourre.
"The product was new and complex, but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami said in a statement.
"Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party."
In my humble opinion, I think the current rally has lasted too longer even though it is supported well by its fundamental. With Goldman Saches being charged with fraud over its handling of subprime mortgages, it would serve well as a reason to take some profit out of the stock market. It could be a long winding road for Goldman Saches and traders would be following closely this Goldman Saches case.
On Friday, General Electric (GE), Bank of America (BAC), Google, Advanced Micro Devices, Mattel and Gannett release better-than-expected quarterly financial reports but yet the market can't manage to keep its rally. Traders are profit-taking and running away.
Ok, good luck.
GOon
The Securities and Exchange Commission announced Friday civil fraud charges against the Wall Street powerhouse and one of its vice presidents. The agency alleges Goldman failed to disclose that one of its clients helped create -- and then bet against -- subprime mortgage securities that Goldman sold to investors.
Investors in the mortgage securities are alleged to have lost more than $1 billion, the SEC noted.
The Goldman client implicated in the fraud is one of the world's largest hedge funds, Paulson & Co., which paid Goldman roughly $15 million for structuring the deals in 2007.
Goldman Sachs shares fell more than 10 percent after the SEC announcement.
The civil lawsuit filed by the SEC in federal court in Manhattan was the government's most significant legal action related to the mortgage meltdown that ignited the financial crisis and helped plunge the country into recession.
A Goldman Sachs spokesman didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.
The agency also charged a Goldman vice president, Fabrice Tourre, 31, who it said was principally responsible for devising the deal and marketing the securities.
The SEC is seeking unspecified fines and restitution from Goldman Sachs and Tourre.
"The product was new and complex, but the deception and conflicts are old and simple," SEC Enforcement Director Robert Khuzami said in a statement.
"Goldman wrongly permitted a client that was betting against the mortgage market to heavily influence which mortgage securities to include in an investment portfolio, while telling other investors that the securities were selected by an independent, objective third party."
In my humble opinion, I think the current rally has lasted too longer even though it is supported well by its fundamental. With Goldman Saches being charged with fraud over its handling of subprime mortgages, it would serve well as a reason to take some profit out of the stock market. It could be a long winding road for Goldman Saches and traders would be following closely this Goldman Saches case.
On Friday, General Electric (GE), Bank of America (BAC), Google, Advanced Micro Devices, Mattel and Gannett release better-than-expected quarterly financial reports but yet the market can't manage to keep its rally. Traders are profit-taking and running away.
Ok, good luck.
GOon
Friday, April 16, 2010
GE earned 21 cents a share, compared to analysts' estimates of earnings of 17 cents a share
For the recent period, the conglomerate /quotes/comstock/13*!ge/quotes/nls/ge (GE 19.89, +0.39, +2.00%) said earnings fell 32% to $1.87 billion, or 17 cents a share, as revenue fell 5% to $36.61 billion.
GE, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, said it may evaluate additional restructuring that will improve earnings power going forward.
"We saw encouraging economic signs, including increases in airline passenger miles and freight loadings, declines in receivables delinquencies, and growth in local advertising markets," said Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt in a statement. He expects earnings and dividends to grow in 2011 and beyond.
GE's stock has climbed more than 66% in the last year after reaching a near 20-year low last March following the credit crisis.
In the first quarter, GE said its financial arm, GE Capital, saw its profit drop 41% to $607 million as revenue fell 10%. Immelt said he was "very encouraged" by the performance as losses and delinquencies declined.
From continuing operations, the industrial bellwether said it earned 21 cents a share, compared to FactSet-compiled estimates of earnings of 17 cents a share on revenue of $37.3 billion.
GE, a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, said it may evaluate additional restructuring that will improve earnings power going forward.
"We saw encouraging economic signs, including increases in airline passenger miles and freight loadings, declines in receivables delinquencies, and growth in local advertising markets," said Chairman and CEO Jeff Immelt in a statement. He expects earnings and dividends to grow in 2011 and beyond.
GE's stock has climbed more than 66% in the last year after reaching a near 20-year low last March following the credit crisis.
In the first quarter, GE said its financial arm, GE Capital, saw its profit drop 41% to $607 million as revenue fell 10%. Immelt said he was "very encouraged" by the performance as losses and delinquencies declined.
Thursday, April 15, 2010
PUBLIC BANK achieves 24% GROWTH IN PRE-TAX PROFIT
PUBLIC BANK ACHIEVES 24% GROWTH IN PRE-TAX PROFIT AND 4.4% DOMESTIC LOAN GROWTH IN FIRST QUARTER OF 2010.
Public Bank Group achieved a commendable start to 2010 with a pre-tax profit of RM923 million for the first quarter of 2010, representing a 24% growth from the corresponding period in 2009. Over the same period, the Group recorded a net profit of RM685 million, 16% higher as compared to RM589 million for the corresponding period in 2009. The Group’s domestic loan base grew strongly by 4.4% in the first quarter of 2010. With the continued pursuit of prudent credit policies and effective credit monitoring, the Group continues to sustain its strong asset quality with its gross impaired loans ratio maintained at below 1%.
The Public Bank Group's results translate into an earnings per share of 19.7 sen for the first quarter of 2010 and an annualised net return on equity of 25.3%.
Highlights of the Public Bank Group's Performance:
• Pre-tax profit of the Group grew by 24% to RM923 million in the first quarter of 2010 as compared to RM745 million in the previous corresponding quarter.
• Net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 16% to RM685 million in the current quarter as compared to RM589 million in the previous corresponding quarter.
• Annualised net return on equity for the first quarter of 2010 stood at 25.3%.
• Earnings per share for the first quarter of 2010 of 19.7 sen was 13% higher as compared to 17.4 sen in the first quarter of 2009.
• Cost-to-income ratio remains efficient at 35.7%.
• Total assets increased to RM219 billion as at the end of March 2010.
• Total loans and advances of the Group grew by RM4.8 billion or 3.5% in thefirst quarter of 2010 to reach RM142.4 billion as at the end of March 2010, driven by the strong domestic loan growth of 4.4% for the first quarter.
• The Group’s total customer deposits increased by 2.8% in the first quarter of 2010 to reach RM175.6 billion as at the end of March 2010. The Group's domestic customer deposits grew at a stronger 3.8%, against the backdrop of a contraction of the domestic industry’s customers deposit of 1.3% for the first two
months of 2010.
• The gross impaired loans ratio of the Group remained below 1% as at the end of March 2010, as compared to the banking industry's gross impaired loans ratio of 3.4% as at the end of February 2010.
• The Group's loan loss coverage of 172.3% continues to be the highest and most prudent in the Malaysian banking industry.
• The core capital ratio and risk-weighted capital ratio of the Group remain healthy at 9.6% and 13.7% respectively as at the end of March 2010.
"Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Group is expected to continue to recordsatisfactory performance for the rest of 2010", Tan Sri Dato’ Sri Dr. Teh Hong Piow (Chairman Of Public Bank)said.
There are a few public bank call warrants listed on KLSE, namely Pbbank-cj, Pbbank-cl and Pbbank-cm. Out of these 3 call warrants, Pbbank-cl is my favourite and closely followed by Pbbank-cj. Both Pbbank-cj and Pbbank-cl are in discount territory. I prefer Pbbank-cl more because of its higher gearing of 5.6.
I did share my views on Public Bank and Pbbank-cl on my 1st April 2010 post. Since then, Pbbank-cl has jumped 26% and I expect this trade to continue provide me with more handsome profit.
Previous post regarding Public Bank:
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/public-bank-on-track-to-meet-strong.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/public-bank-set-to-jump.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/cimb-research-reaffirms-overweight-on.html
Public Bank on track to meet strong profit targets
OSK Research says Public Bank is on track to meet its strong profit targets and upgraded it from Neutral to Buy as the bank is set to announce its first quarter earnings on Thursday, April 15.
It said on Thursday that after an upward earnings revision, it is raising its target price for Public Bank from RM11.80 to RM13.00.
“Our new TP assumes a ROE of 26.0%, a long-term growth of 4.0% and 9.3% cost of equity. The current share price implies a relatively conservative 22% ROE vs management’s 3-year target of 30%,” it said.
OSK Research sees its performance remaining firmly on the uptrend, and largely on course to deliver 2%-3% quarter-on-quarter earnings growth, although the 1Q period is typically a weaker quarter.
The relatively strong results are likely to be underpinned by: 1) an uptrend in net interest margins from repricing of mortgages and higher HP rates, 2) quarter-on-quarter growth in wealth management fee income on the back of higher management fees from its unit trust business, 3) a 2%-3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in gross loan base, and 4) continued downtrend in loan loss provisions.
Previous post regarding Public Bank:
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/public-bank-set-to-jump.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/cimb-research-reaffirms-overweight-on.html
It said on Thursday that after an upward earnings revision, it is raising its target price for Public Bank from RM11.80 to RM13.00.
“Our new TP assumes a ROE of 26.0%, a long-term growth of 4.0% and 9.3% cost of equity. The current share price implies a relatively conservative 22% ROE vs management’s 3-year target of 30%,” it said.
OSK Research sees its performance remaining firmly on the uptrend, and largely on course to deliver 2%-3% quarter-on-quarter earnings growth, although the 1Q period is typically a weaker quarter.
The relatively strong results are likely to be underpinned by: 1) an uptrend in net interest margins from repricing of mortgages and higher HP rates, 2) quarter-on-quarter growth in wealth management fee income on the back of higher management fees from its unit trust business, 3) a 2%-3% quarter-on-quarter expansion in gross loan base, and 4) continued downtrend in loan loss provisions.
Previous post regarding Public Bank:
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/public-bank-set-to-jump.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2010/04/cimb-research-reaffirms-overweight-on.html
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