Genting call warrant, Genting-CN

Power of Leverage

On 13 Feb I noticed that genting was trading near its support line. I bought some shares of Genting. In my previous posts, I already shared some of my ideas regarding genting on 25 March 2009, 23 Feb 2009, 12 Feb 2009 and 6 Feb 2009. In fact, Genting is still one of my favourite stock.

I was so confident that Genting would rebound after sinking to a price last seen on 28 Oct 2008 ( one of the worst day for Wall Street). Instead of just buying Genting shares, i bought 10000 shares of Genting-CN (call warrant) too to increase my leverage on Genting.

Genting and Genting-cn dropped further down before moving upward.

I sold all the genting-cn shares on 2 Apr 2009 as I noticed Genting had already rebounded from 10 March 2009 low of RM3.08 to 2 Apr 2009 of around RM4.00. It was a 30% rebounce. I was not confident that Genting could keep the upward momentum, so I sold all genting-cn shares to take the profit out of the table.

I was wrong, Genting moved up massively after that, so did genting-cn. I am still happy I managed to get a 10% gain on the genting-cn trade. It was one of my first experiences with call warrants. It was a great one.

PARALYSED

I was partially paralysed on 27 and 28 Apr 2009. As a result i saw with my very own eyes that my portfolio sink RM10,000 and another RM8,000 the next day. I am still learning to control greed and fear.

I would like to share with you guys a quotes from one of the world greatest investor/trader.

“Once we realize that imperfect understanding is the human condition there is no shame in being wrong, only in failing to correct our mistakes.” George Soros.

Bursa Malaysia Securities Bhd.

Background:

Bursa Malaysia (Bursa) is an exchange holding company approved under Section 15 of the Capital Markets and Services Act 2007. It operates a fully-integrated exchange, offering the complete range of exchange-related services including trading, clearing, settlement and depository services. The wholly-owned subsidiaries of Bursa Malaysia own and operate the various businesses.

Fundamental:

First, it is a monopoly-type of business. Bursa is an easy-to-understand business, it will make more money when exchange-related activities is high. Hence, I would say that Bursa is a good stock for contrarians who buy stock when nobody else wants to buy and sell the stock when everyone else is fighting for it. When the stock market is hot, Bursa doesn't need to spend much on advertisement and promotion but the business turnover will certainly increase. Bursa also doesn't have to increase its workforce too much when the business turnover is increasing. More business but workforce is almost the same. Good business model.

Techical:

I bought 3000 shares of Bursa on 6 Feb 2009 when it was trading at RM5.00. It was near it support level of around RM4.96 and near the bottom of its 3-years price range . Doji appeared on 5 Feb 2009 after coming down from RM5.95 on 7 Jan 2009. From ADX, i noticed that the downward momentum had decreased. RSI and stochastic were in oversold regions. I did not wait till MACD to give me the buy signal as i expected Bursa to move sideway for a while before rebounding higher.

It was disappointing to know that Bursa dropped to RM4.36 after US Dow Jones broke and fall below its 21 Nov 2008 support level of 7449. Dow Jones broke the support 20 Feb 2009 and triggered another massive sell down to reach 6626 on 6 Mar 2009. KLCI also dropped to 847 poitns.

I sold 1000 shares of Bursa at RM5.20 on 1 Apr 2009 after Bursa rebounded 20% from RM4.36 to RM5.20. I was a bit emotionally exhausted after seeing Bursa dropped to RM4.36, so I thought I should took some of the profit out of the trade. RSI and stochastic were in overbought region. MACD was still indicating buy signal but i was not confident that Bursa could keep its upward momentum after rebounding so much. I expected Bursa to trade sideway.

Yes, i was wrong. Bursa continued its bullish momentum. I sold another 2000 shares of Bursa at RM6.20 on 27 Apr 2009. On 27 Apr 2009, KLCI opened in red. Investors and traders were very concern of the outbreak of swine flu in Mexico which already killed more than 100 people. I was thinking that this could be the catalyst to break the bullish momentum and for the traders to take the profit out of the table.

I was glad i made this decision, Bursa closed at RM6 on 27 Apr 2009 and dropped another 15sen to RM5.85 the following day on 28 Apr 2009.

At the same time, i was also very disappointed that I did not close most of my long positions when i was thinking the bullish momentum would be broken. As a result, my portfolio value decreased by more than RM10,000 on 27 Apr 2009. This is really a good experience for newbie like me.

YTL Cement Bhd

Background:

The principal activities of YTL Cement Berhad include the manufacture and supply of Cement products, Concrete products, Quarry products and provision of related services to the construction sector.

YTL Cement is the nation's largest producer of ready-mixed concrete, through its subsidiary Buildcon Concrete Sdn Bhd. Buildcon Concrete currently operates more than 50 batching plants throughout Peninsular Malaysia. In response to increasing market demand, YTL Cement acquired a 100% ownership of C. I. Readymix Sdn Bhd to complement its strategic market coverage.

YTL Cement Berhad operates a 1.2 million tonne per annum Integrated Cement Plant in Bukit Sagu, Pahang; as was a Clinker and Blast Furnace Slag Grinding Plants at Westport, Klang, and Pasir Gudang, Johor, each of 500,000 m/t per annum capacity.

Fundamental:

For the last 5 year, YTLCMT was trading within the range of RM2.00-RM6.20 and its 5-year PE range was within 4.91-20.28 and 5-year average PE was 11.30. I bought 2000 shares of YTLCMT at RM2.230 on 5 Feb 2009 when i noticed that YTLCMT PE was 5.85 which was half of its 5-year average PE. Its dividen yield was 5.37%. It was near the bottom of its 5-year price range. I like the dividen so much that i bought another 2000 shares of YTLCMT on 20 FEb 2009 as it is going to ex-dividend (2nd interim dividend of 7.5% single tier) on 6 Mar 2009. It was backed by very good management team too.

Technical:

RSI and stochastic were indicating oversold signals. MACD and ADX were flat on 5 Feb 2009. For bollinger band, it was oversold too. The price as moving sideway after a week of selling down from RM2.44.

I sold YTLCMT when it was trading near its resistance level of around RM2.60. RSI and stochastice were indicating overbought signals. I was expecting YTLCMT to move sideway then.

I also noticed that Lafarge Malayan Cement Bhd (LMCEMNT) was moving up a lot (>10%) on 5 & 6 Feb 2009. Analysts were positive on cement producer due to government stimulus plan. Comparing to LMCEMNT, YTLCMT was not moving up as fast as LMCEMNT so i decided to open my long position on YTLCMT instead of LMCEMNT. I was expecting YTLCMT to respond to the analysts' recommendation.

Pintaras Jaya, a hidden Gem

Pintaras is a smallish listed construction company (piling industry) with a total market value of RM82mil and it sits on an ample pile of cash and listed investments totalling RM78mil. On paper, investors are according a value of just RM4mil for the business, its management and track record.

I would like to thank my father, Mr Choo Siew Hoo, for helping me to find this hidden gem. My father likes cash-rich company and I am totally agreed with him.

On 20/3/2009, Ptaras was selling at RM1. This is an attractive price as its net cash/shares was 0.61. It is really rare that we could find such a cash-rich company. I manage to buy 3000 shares of Ptaras on 20/3/2009.

The only concern I had about Ptaras was its low liquidity and I might find it hard to close the position. But my father always shares with me that it is always better to buy a counter when the volume is very thin as during that time investors are not interested in that particular counter; and sell it when the volume is very high. According to him, when volume is high, it means that investors are fighting with each other to buy the counter. It will become more expensive. Yes, this is a contrarian way of investing.

I had to queue a few days before i managed to open the positions. Patience is very important in buying low liquidity stock.

I noticed that RM1.00 was its support. It was also its lowest price in the last two years.

Since opening the position, again, I queued everyday to close the position at RM1.08. Patience is very important in selling low liquidity stock too. I am very happy I managed to close the position at RM1.08 on 27/3/2009 after a week of holding the stock. I was queueing a few tick higher than the queue-to-buy price. I still remember on that day, when i queued to sell, the queue-to-price was RM1.01.

Ptaras is a smallish listed company. Normally, analysts would not do a research on it. When there is even a small catalyst, company such Ptaras would gap up enormously like what happened on 19/2/2009. On 19/2/2009, Ptaras jumped almost 15%.

Ptaras was on The Star (Starbiz) on 19/2/2009. Cash-rich Pintaras eyes acquisitions.
http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/2/19/business/3298708&sec=business

I am really agreed with what its managing director (Dr Chiu Hong Keong) said. "Cash is useful even in normal times, but in troubled times it is king."

2009 Sharp contraction likely

The Malaysian economy is expected to contract significantly in the first half of 2009 before the stimulus packages kick in to provide support, Bank Negara Malaysia governor Tan Sri Dr Zeti Akhtar Aziz said.

Economists polled by the Business Times expected the economy to contract by 1.02 per cent on the average this year before it rebounds to 3.7 per cent next year.

It is really disappointing to learn that. When sharp contraction is expected, our government, as they normally do, will blame it on the world severe economy condition. Yes, undeniably, that is the main root of the evil. I really think much could be do to cushion the effect of the severe contraction.

I still remember that our finance minister was so naive and ignorant that he said that the RM700b stimulus package that he launched on last November would make sure our economy would achieve growth of 3.5%.

What is happening now? He is proven wrong. He fails.

Then early this month, he launched another stimulus package, but i preferred to call it "balloon" stimulus package. Inside a balloon, there is nothing but air. He is just putting all the figure together to make the stimulus package look big. It is a RM600b stimulus package, but there is lack of fresh fund to be pumped into the economy. And yet again, he said this stimulus package is enough to make sure our economy would not contract.

What would happen then? He would again proven wrong and he would fail again.

The recognition delay is disappointing.

I suggest that he goes back to school to learn about economy. He is not good enough to lead us and i really hope he stops causing chaos in our country.

Value emerging in Genting

KUALA LUMPUR: HwangDBS Vickers Research sees value emerging in Genting Bhd and Resorts World Bhd, advocating investors to switch from Berjaya Sports Toto Bhd (BToto).

"We upgrade Genting, with a target price of RM4.20, based on sum-of-parts, and Resorts, with a target price of RM2.60, based on 14.2 times forward price-to-earnings, to buy from hold, as we see limited downside, with valuations hitting Sept 11/SARS trough, at 10 times 2010 PE," the research house said.

It added prices of both stocks had fallen between 28% and 30% since November 2009, after the announcement of a RM350 million related party transaction, versus the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index's (KLCI’s rise of 2%.

Excluding Resorts’ RM4.8 billion cash pile, the market valued its gaming business at only 6.5 times 2010 PE, while investors would be getting the rest of Genting’s non-listed business, namely power, oil and gas, and property, for free, it said.

"We advocate investors to switch from BToto, as too much expectation has been built in for a 75% dividend payout (9MFY09: 59%) and special dividend, which may not materialise," HwangDBS said.

The research house has a "fully valued" rating on BToto's stock.

Meanwhile, the research house is positive on the gaming sector, given resilient visitor arrivals and number forecast operator spending.It said, however, risks to the stocks included high foreign shareholding of 33% and 35% for Resorts and Genting, respectively, corporate governance issues and a potential cash call by Resorts unit Star Cruises Ltd, adding that it believed this had been priced in, given the "massive" 75% discount implied on Resorts net cash.

Other risks included further impairment losses on Genting's investments in Genting Stanley UK and Star Cruises, after having already written down RM1.9 billion in total over the past two years, it said.

On Resorts gaming business, the research house added the company's valuations matched its 1998 all-time low, and while average spending could ease due to fewer VIP patrons with the commencement of both Singapore integrated resorts by 2010 visitor arrivals to Genting Highlands are expected to remain resilient, as proven in the past."We expect Resorts to continue to chalk strong average operating cash flow of RM1.3 billion over the next three years," it said.

Meanwhile, it said although Genting's stock price had rebounded by 10% from its recent low, it had only factored in the market value of its listed investments, virtually ignoring its power, oil and gas and property segments, despite Ebit contribution of between RM300 million and RM400 million annually.It added at an expected growth of 20%, Genting would see the strongest earnings growth in the gaming sector in 2010, with maiden contributions from Resorts World at Sentosa, of which the soft opening was scheduled for first quarter of 2010 (1Q2010).

In comparison to Genting and Resorts, HwangDBS said BToto was trading at a "rich" 14 times FY10 PE and 4.6% net dividend yield, versus KLCI's 4.3%."The market has been speculating a special dividend because parent, Berjaya Land Bhd, would need up to RM882 million if exchangeable bondholders exercise a put option for early redemption in August 2009."We think this is unlikely as BToto would not be able to pay out that much dividend — net gearing would need to increase to 370% — and Berjaya Land can still raise cash via asset sale and gear up (net gearing: 40%)," it said.

翁总，快和不道德的甲州首长说拜拜！

我们都知道，翁诗杰是马华公会史上最注重道德的总会长，就像我们都知道妈妈是女人一样的道理。为了捍卫道德水平，翁总可以横眉冷对千多位将蔡细历送上署理主席位子的党中央代表！为了守护道德领土，翁总能够以大无畏的精神，无惧被党员“包围起来剿灭”！为了灌输道德观念，翁总奉行嫉恶如仇的作风，痛斥口交是比不道德更严重的“犯法的事情”！

翁总是社会道德最后的防线对于道德水平的坚持与斗争，翁总认第二，谁敢认第一？在世风日下的年代，要寻找捍卫社会道德最后防线的中流砥柱，舍翁总取谁？

日前，马六甲首席部长拿督斯里莫哈末阿里，被巫统纪律局判定涉及不道德的金钱政治，被撤销参选巫统署理主席的资格。金钱政治，是腐败腐坏腐烂腐臭的一个较为文艺及专业的别称，乃政坛一切不道德行为之母，邪恶程度就算比不上偷情口交，亦不远矣。

滥权买牛应辞职，贿选却不必？

雪州大臣卡立涉嫌盗用公款买了46头牛，与翁总同样很有道德的基尔马上跳出来呼吁前者辞职；甲州首长证据确凿涉及贿选，不但没有人呼吁他辞职，反而连候任首相也公开保证他的首长职位不受影响。买牛竟然比贿选更没有道德？面对如此是非颠倒的荒唐事，我恳请道德斗士翁诗杰总会长，敢怒敢言站出来匡扶正义，弘扬道德！翁总不能容忍与背妻开房者共存，肯定也难以忍受与台底交易者共荣！翁总应吁阿里辞马六甲首长翁总身为与巫统平起平坐的国阵第二大党的唯一领头羊，我斗胆向翁总提出以下建议：第一，公开呼吁莫哈末阿里辞去马六甲首席部长的职位。既然进行口交的人没有资格担任官职，涉及贿选的人更加不能享有权力。口交的人一旦官职在手，极可能运用手上的资源继续回到同样的房间重复同样的事情；贿选的人一旦续掌大权，更有可能为了保住权位而滥用资源行使最擅长的手段。马华应考虑退出甲州政府不过，第一项建议实践的难度过高，所以翁总可以考虑以下第二项建议：指示马六甲州行政议员拿督颜天禄和薛亚朝辞职，退出由违反道德者领导的州政府，并下令所有马华甲州议员与没有道德的甲州首长划清界限，以保马华冰清玉洁之躯。

捍卫道德不能拘泥门户之见

不作强权应声虫的马华甲州联委会主席魏家祥博士，应该全力辅佐翁总，齐心协力完成这场捍卫道德的关键战役。翁总和魏博士千万别拘泥于门户之见，因为违反道德者不是自家党员，所以就默许道德被蹂躏。须知捍卫道德是不能只扫门前雪的。翁总也千万不能因为要拼经济，所以就不问世事，对违反道德的行径视而不见。须知面包诚可贵，道德价更高。言教我们听得多了，现在摆在眼前的，是一个让翁总进行身教的历史契机！倘若翁总可以一如既往地，展现其出淤泥而不染的高尚道德情操，我们一定会认同，马华公会是我国史上最有道德的政党，翁总是马华公会史上最有道德的总会长！

注：作者部落格http://lengkekmun.blogspot.com/

http://www.malaysiakini.com/columns/100459

fiscal policy and C4 is waiting for us

Fiscal policy refers to the federal government's use of spending and taxation to meet macroeconomic goals. Basically there are a few limitation when implementing discretionary fiscal policy.

Recognition delay: Discretionary fiscal policy decisions are made by the President (Prime Minister) and voted on by Congress (Cabinet). The state of the economy is complex and it may take the administration time to recognize the extent of the economic problems.

Administrative or law-making delay: The administration and Congress cannot vote and enact decisions overnight. Legal changes are delayed while elected officials debate the issues.

Impact delay: Times passes before the effects of the fiscal policy changes are felt. Delays occur in implementing increases and decreases in government spending and taxing. Moreover, it takes time for corporations and individuals to act on the fiscal policy changes.

With these limitations, intended effect on the economy would normally be delayed for 12-18 months.

For our case, it is very disappointed to say the one who is responsible to salvage our economy is still in the state of denial. Instead of focusing on salvaging the economy, he is focusing on causing chaos in our local political scene. Personally, i think he totally fails in fulfilling his responsibility on the economy and he should give way to others who are more capable in salvaging the economy. I really do not think causing chaos in our Perak political scene would salvage the economy, ironically, this is what he did best and he felt proud of it. Shame on you!

Slow in recognizing our economy problems and slow in implementing the RM7b stimulus plan make me wonder why he thinks he is the most suitable person to lead our Malaysia.

I guess I should stop talking about him, if not there would C4 to make me disappear.

Now second stimulus plan aka mini budget is coming soon, let's hope this one would be enough to keep us from falling into a recession. But i doubt it would be enough.

Investors positive on Malaysian stocks: Macquarie

INVESTORS still see potential upside in Malaysian stocks with the market expected to strengthen in 2009, Macquarie Research says.The research house, which spent a week marketing in Malaysia, Singapore and Hong Kong, said investor demand was surprisingly good."The main questions that arose revolved around what bombed stocks should be bought."Additionally, investors were also wondering if the current strength in plantations should be bought or sold," it said in a research note.Macquarie said most investors still thought of Malaysia as low beta, where risks and returns are low. They were also surprised that one can make money in the country and outperform regional markets in bear rallies.This in itself probably led investors to rethink their positioning if they expect a rally in the second and third quarters of 2009."We recommend investors move out of cash into equities in first quarter because we expect a bear market rally this year," the research house said.Macquarie's top picks are Genting Bhd, AMMB Holdings, KNM Group, TM International and Tenaga Nasional Bhd.Elaborating on the stock choices, it said TM International was chosen due to its cheap valuation and growth. "Most investors felt they would wait till the potential cash call is completed," the research house said.It said TNB was quite topical in the second half of the week after the government adjusted tariffs in favour of the company.The main positive is that the regulatory regime continues to demonstrate favour for Tenaga and the introduction of a tariff formula is now more likely than in recent history."The main pushback was that investors wanted to wait for further clarity on the regulatory front," Macquarie said.As for Genting, the stock has been forgotten since the third and fourth quarters of 2008, and investors sat up when they realised how cheap it is - excluding the market value of its Singapore subsidiary.The main concern for Genting is that a number of investors did not believe Sentosa would be a success because they compared it with Macau and Las Vegas.

source:http://www.btimes.com.my/Current_News/BTIMES/articles/macwa/Article