Friday, July 31, 2009

Update2: Airasia 267% in 5 weeks




Wow, Airasia has been really incredible these 3 weeks. Superb! Bravo!

When i first shared about Airasia-ce on 19 June 2009, it was trading around RM0.06 only. Now it is trading at RM0.22. Those who bought airasia-ce on 19 June 2009 would have reap a 267% profit in 5 weeks(and still climbing).

If we were to keep our money in the bank and get 3% interest per year on our deposit, a 267% profit would mean that we have to keep the deposit with the bank for 89 years! That is a long long time. I don't think i can live that long. haha.

It is really fantastic. I am really happy I made the right decision when Airasia share price was affected by swine flu worry and health problem of its CEO, Mr Tony Fernandes. I knew these setbacks were temporary and these problems would not affect Airasia fundamental value.

In my humble opinion, big drop in stock price provides me with great opportunity. I like to buy great stocks with low price.

I don't agree with people saying call warrant is an extremely risky financial instrument. It is only an extremely risky financial instrument for those traders who don't have the proper understanding and knowledge of the instrument. Knowledge is very important to achieve financial freedom. Earning money no matter in whichever field is never easy, so does investing.

Referring to the charts above, we can see that Airasia (airasic-ce's mother) share price is sitting on a resistance. The resistance is at RM1.50. But i really think, if these few days the stock market is provided with good local/US financial news, it would fuel airasia to the next resistance level which is RM1.66. I think RM1.50 resistance should not provide a big obstacle to Airasia.

There is a Doji appeared in Airasia chart, so it is matter make or break only. Appearance of DOJI signals uncertainty and it normally appears at resistance and support level. In the coming days, i will be monitoring my airasia-ce more closely. If i were to bet on it, i would bet that Airasia rocketing up again as it is still cheaper than MAS and Tranmil.

If what i think is correct, airasia-ce (current gearing around 4) should be up another 30-40%.

Airasia-ce is one of the superstars in my portfolio, beside that HKEX-CB and Genting-co also provide me with huge profit too.

Currently, I am still trying to switch my stocks to call warrant and i am looking for another great opportunity.

Good lucking in your trading. Hopefully every trade would be greater in August. Huat ah!

GOon

Thursday, July 30, 2009

A Beginner’s Guide: Call Warrants Basics

Call Warrants

A call warrant is a leveraged financial instrument which derives its value from the value of an underlying security. A call warrant can provide exposure to the underlying security for a fraction of the underlying securities price.

For a physical-settled call warrant, the warrant holder has the right, but not the obligation to buy the underlying security from the issuer at a predetermined price or Exercise Price at expiry or at anytime during the tenure of the call warrant.

For a cash-settled call warrant, the warrant holder can exercise at expiry or anytime within the tenure of the warrant to receive a cash payment based on the positive difference between the underlying security price and Exercise Price of the call warrant, adjusted by the Exercise Ratio and any other incidental charges.


Exercise Styles

American - Gives the warrant holder the right to exercise at anytime before or on Expiry Date
European - Gives the warrant holder the right to exercise only on Expiry Date


Expiry Date

The date on which the ability to exercise the call warrants expires.


Cash Settlement Amount

If the call warrants is In-the-Money, the Cash Settlement Amount upon exercise or expiry of a cash-settled call warrants shall be:

Cash Settlement Amount = Number of Call Warrant x (Closing Price - Exercise Price) x (1/Exercise Ration) x Settlement Exchange Rate


Closing Price

Closing Price may be determined as follows:

If a call warrant is exercised before the Expiry Date, the Closing Price shall be the closing market price of the underlying security on the market day immediately before the exercise date;
If a call warrant is exercised on the Expiry Date, the Closing Price will be the 5-day VWAMP of the underlying security before and including the market day before the Expiry Date;
As specified in the term sheet.


Exercise Price

In the case of physically-settled call warrants, the Exercise Price is the price at which the warrant holder is entitled to purchase the underlying security.

As for cash-settled call warrants, the Exercise Price is the price that is subtracted from the Closing Price of the underlying security in arriving at the Cash Settlement Amount.


Settlement Exchange Rate

The ratio of settlement currency for one unit of Reference Currency, being the currency of the underlying security


Exercise Ratio

Number of warrants in exchange for one (1) underlying security


Premium

Premium measures the percentage over the underlying security price required to break-even upon exercise or on expiry of the warrants:


Premium = [(Call Warrant Price x Exercise Ratio) + Exercise Price - Underlying Security Price] / Underlying Security Price


Gearing Ratio

Gearing ratio measures the exposure of warrants to the underlying security:


Gearing = Underlying Security Price / (Call Warrant Price x Exercise Ratio)


Delta

Delta is the relationship between the expected change in the call warrant price and the corresponding change in the underlying security price as follows:


Delta = (Change in Call Warrant Price x Exercise Ratio)/Change in Underlying Security Price


Effective Gearing

Effective Gearing is a measure of the actual leverage, which is computed as the theoretical % change in the call warrant price for a 1% change in the underlying security price:


Effective Gearing = Gearing Ratio x Delta


Moneyness


At-the-money or ATM - When Underlying Security Price = Exercise Price
In-the-money or ITM - When Underlying Security Price > Exercise Price
Out-of-money or OTM - When Underlying Security Price < Exercise Price


Intrinsic Value

Intrinsic Value = Underlying Security Price - Exercise Price


Liquidity Provider

Issuer will be the liquidity provider for the call warrants it issued. The process of market making involves maintaining bid and offer prices on the trading system of Bursa Securities on each Market Day, over the life of the call warrants.


http://warrants.cimb.com/WRT/callWarrants.jsp

Wednesday, July 29, 2009

Update: Airasia-ce 175% profit in a month


This few days Airasia has been jumping up the chart. It is really a good news. Many of my friends are asking for my opinions on Airasia. Of course, I give them a thumb up. I like Airasia a lot. In fact, i started talking about Airasia on my blog since June 2009.

Here are the links to my previous posts about Airasia:
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/05/airasias-quarterly-report.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/06/airasia-vs-mas.html
http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/06/now-everyone-can-fly-airasia-boleh.html

When i first shared about Airasia-ce on 19 June 2009, it was trading around RM0.06 only. Now it is trading at RM0.165. Those who bought airasia-ce on 19 June 2009 would have reap a 175% profit within a month(and still climbing). Airasia also increases 26%.

Earning 175% (for airasia-ce) or even 26% for (airasia) within a month would be an enormous achievement.

In my humble opinion, I still think that Airasia is still worth investing. I still consider Airasia very cheap compared to other airline stock (MAS and Tranmil). Airasia is on a strong uptrend. That's why i still haven't close my positions on airasia-ce. It is just an unrealised profit.

Airasia-ce is trading at 0% premium, 4 gearing and with 36 days to maturity. Since it is 0% premium, that make me less worry about the decreasing time value of call warrant. With 0% premium, it is like i pay nothing (RM0) for the time value.

Each percent increment on Airasia would be (theoretically) mean a 4% increment on Airasia-ce and vice versa. Since Airasia (airasia-ce's mother) is on a strong uptrend, i would like to make good use of the gearing.

So far Airasia has been making Malaysia proud. Now the world knows that Malaysia has the world best low-cost airline. I salute you, Mr Tony Fernandes (Airasia founder and CEO). Thank you for your contribution to our country. Malaysia Boleh!

When my friends ask me whether airasia will keep on rocketing up.

My answer to them is "I don't have a crystal ball on my hand, i just know in order to make profit in stock market we must buy low and sell high. Buy when good companies drop and sell it when they turn higher."

Thanks to Mr Warren Buffett and my father Mr Choo Siew Hoo. I learn a lot from them. Now i am learning to better control my emotion. I train myself not to get too excited when the market rockets up and not to panic when the market dives.

Malaysia Boleh! Airasia Boleh!

Good luck in your trading.

GOon

Australian business confidence rises to pre-economic crisis levelsAustralian business confidence rises to pre-economic crisis levels

Australian business confidence rose in the second quarter to pre-financial crisis levels, a survey released Tuesday said.

The National Australia Bank's survey for the three months to June rose 20 index points to minus four points, from minus 24 points at the end of the previous quarter.

It was the highest reading since before the collapse of U.S. investment bank Lehman Brothers, which filed for bankruptcy protection in September after suffering massive credit losses.

But the below-zero reading shows there are still more pessimists than optimists among the companies surveyed.

The survey also showed business conditions rose 11 index points to minus-nine points, mainly due to better trading and profits.

The bank said that while fears of an economic "Armageddon" have evaporated, expectations for business conditions over the next 12 months are still the lowest since June 1991.

Tuesday, July 28, 2009

Woooo! I pass my CFA level 1. I pass! I pass! I pass!



Today i am one of the happiest persons on earth. Beside the superb performance of my portfolio, I pass my CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) level 1, this exam really means a lot to me. I spent my whole last May just studying for this exam and I am really glad i manage to pass it. Woo! It is really a fantastic feeling.

There is a will, there is ALWAYS a way. This is always been my philosophy. It was really a challenge for me when i decided to register for the exam because last time when i was in university i studied civil engineering. Ya, civil engineering has nothing to do with finance/economy. That's why i needed lots of time and commitment for this exam. I am really happy, and now finally i can move on to CFA level 2.

There are CFA level 1, CFA level 2 and CFA level 3. For more info, we can get it at wwww.cfainstitute.org

I would like to thank my family and my fiancee for their unwavering supports. I love you all!

痛斥反贪会一视同仁查案说法 林冠英:搞出人命还说公平?


反贪污委员会辩称一视同仁调查国阵和民联领袖涉贪案件的言论引起反弹,民主行动党秘书长兼槟州首长林冠英今天措词严厉质问,是否有国阵证人因协助调查,而被盘问至凌晨四五点后丢失性命。

“我不是说,要国阵的人身亡才算公平。但看回民联的遭遇,你怎么可以说一视同仁?”

“全世界都知道,反贪污委员会持有双重标准与选择性提控。”

他劝请,反贪污委员会停止圆谎,若诚心证明清白和赎罪,应促请政府设立调查赵明福死因的皇家委员会。

“现有的是皇委会是一只无牙虎。搞出人命后不追究死因,仅谈论人权是否被侵犯,根本是见树不见林的做法。”

讥反贪会执行任务拉拢跳槽

他也纠正,反贪污委员会声称至今调查20名巫统领袖,而仅有3名民联雪州议员受调查的数据出现错误,因为单单在霹雳就有两名蝉过别枝的民联议员被提控涉贪。

“不可能只是3名,在雪州就有7名华裔州议员被调查。看来讲骗话似乎成了他们的传统。”

因此,他表示,难怪坊间流传着一个嘲笑反贪会“持续执行任务,直至跳槽至国阵”的说法。

由雪州大臣解答夺权可能性

被询及反贪会的举动,是否准备推翻雪州民联政府,林冠英认为,此事应由雪州大臣回应。但是两名跳槽的霹雳议员案件若不了了之,也不会令人感意外。

“‘持续执行任务,直至跳槽至国阵’是一个流传的笑话,我甚至曾在论坛上,当着反贪会副主席的面前公开发表,而引起哄堂大笑。”

他表示,虽然那发生在赵明福命案前,但一定程度上说明了大众对反贪会的负面印象。

三美威鲁致电冠英谈豆蔻村

另一方面,林冠英表示,国大党主席三美威鲁昨天早上仅通过一名《星报》记者致电他,针对豆蔻村课题展开一段“不寻常”的对话。

不过,林冠英澄清,两人在电话中并未说过要会面。

“他触及豆蔻村的课题,但似乎对事情的来龙去脉毫无概念。他问我为何不提出上诉,我还得跟他解释,我国最高法院即联邦法院已做出宣判。”

他表示,由于卡巴星负责法律程序,三美威鲁最后声称会联络该名资深律师,唯全程谈话未触及购地的课题。

根据《星报》今天报道,三美威鲁表示已跟林冠英通过电话表明,会在短期内前往槟州与后者面对面协商豆蔻村问题,希望取得双赢方案。同时,他说,国大党已准备320万令吉向地主购买豆蔻村地皮。

林冠英:不卷入国大党党选

不过,林冠英对三美威鲁在槟州国大党常年大会中发表两人的谈话,感到惊奇。

“今年是国大党的党选年,我们不要卷入其中。我不认为,将此课题与国大党的内部政治混为一谈是正确的。”

此外,他表示,虽然320万令吉并不足以购地,但若国大党真有诚意,倒应先将款项汇入槟政府的户口,否则一切免谈。

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/109352

Investors Get Second Chance at Bull Market

Bulls and bears can defend their turf every day, but when it comes to the stock market, key signs are pointing up.

U.S. companies of various sizes from different industries are beating analysts' second-quarter forecasts, banking and lending have come back to life, and consumer and housing reports are less dour.

Since the end of March, the benchmark S&P 500 Index has gained about 23% and is close to crossing 1,000 for the first time since November. While the barrier has more to do with emotion than anything else, it suggests investors are slowly becoming more optimistic. As hundreds of thousands of jobs are still being lost each month, hard times are far from over, but investors unwilling to part with their money are missing an optimal time to buy on the cheap.

General Electric, IBM and Caterpillar have soundly exceeded estimates. There have been surprisingly good results nearly every day, save for a few (Microsoft and Ashland). The backbone of the economy may indeed be in better shape than previously thought.

Even ground zero for the economic meltdown has shown signs of a pulse. Financial firms Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase surpassed forecasts by 40% or more, while the walking dead, Citigroup and Bank of America, also surprised on the upside.

During this run of good fortune for the economy, a key gauge known as the volatility index, or VIX, has been steadily improving. The VIX measures the amount that options investors expect the S&P 500 to change over the next 30 days, quoted as percentage points.

In the following graph of the S&P 500 against the inverted VIX, it's clear that the implied volatility in the stock market has decreased greatly this year. Volatility is still higher than the 10-year average, but it's less than a third of what it was during the panic in 2008.

As volatility falls, so do the opportunity for huge gains. Those trying to time the bottom of the market probably missed the boat in the first quarter. Investors who pulled money for fear of a total market collapse should think about jumping back in. While some choppiness may remain for several months, most major gauges suggest a much stronger confidence could mean the often-discussed "testing of the bottom" may not be in the cards.

In addition to the improvement in the VIX, the State Street Investors Confidence Index, or SSICI, also shows a vast improvement in recent months. The SSICI is based on the asset holdings of some of the world's most sophisticated investors. As those investors' risk appetites increase, measured by the composition of their portfolios and the weighting of risky assets, so does the SSICI. That signals bullishness. After the gauge hit an all-time low after Lehman Brothers' collapse, it's been steadily gaining and is now at the highest level since August 2007, four months before the U.S. economy officially slipped into a recession.

Strength in these gauges means little if stocks are selling at a premium. But that's not the case. Over the past 25 years, the S&P 500 has traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of just over 23. It's now at 16.5, suggesting equities are undervalued in historical terms. Even when adjusting for the heady days of the late 1990s, the stock market is still inexpensive.

With the benefit of hindsight, investors should have jumped into equities with both feet in early March, when the S&P 500 briefly slipped into the 600s. While that sort of timing would probably have more to do with luck than skill, piling in now would probably be wise for investors seeking to gain back some of the losses sustained during the meltdown.

As volatility drops and confidence rises, investors can expect less nausea from stock investments. With relatively cheap prices still to be had, equities look like an attractive bet for the second half of this year. Investors had the opportunity of a lifetime in early March. Here's a rare second chance.

Sunday, July 26, 2009

Sunrise Bhd won two 5-star awards!!!


SUNRISE BHD's two condominiums won two "5-Star" awards in the recent Asia Pacific Property Awards 2009 held in Singapore.

The company said on July 24 that 10 Mont'Kiara won in the category for "Best High Rise Architecture in Malaysia" and 11 Mont'Kiara for "Best High Rise Development in Malaysia".

A '5-Star' rating reflects the top honour in each category. The awards were presented at at the Marina Mandarin, Singapore on July 16. The awards were held in association with CNBC Arabia Television.

Sunrise assistant general manager for development, Raymond Cheah said: "We are ecstatic to have been awarded the highest honour in such a prestigious competition."

"The results bear testament to the passion we put into what we do and our promise to deliver our best to exceed customers' expectations', he added.

Cheah said the awards would encourage the company to come out with more innovative ideas to deliver new experiences, where product quality, state-of-the-art designs and service excellence are the key differentiators.

The bungalow-in-the-sky twin-tower 10 Mont'Kiara has 332 units with sizes ranging from 3,478 sq ft to 4,090 sq ft and sprawling penthouse units of over 7,500 sq ft.

The iconic Green Mark certified 11 Mont'Kiara presents five uniquely sculptured curvilinear towers with 339 units, each enjoying a grand 270º view. With
one or two private abodes per floor, unit sizes start from 2,700 sq ft with a choice of eight unique designs.

Limited units in both condominiums, located next to each other at Jalan Kiara 1, are available for sale, it added.

Sunrise is a fundamental strong property company and with good dividend payout. Sunrise definitely worth a look.

GENM-CH (resorts-ch)


In my blog, i often talk about Genting Malaysia (RESORTS), I like it very much. Last time i used to own resorts shares. After that I sold all the shares, it was not because i ceased to like it anymore. It was because I was switching part of my portfolio to warrants/call warrants.

I bought Genm-ch when was is at RM0.05, the main reason was its very high gearing of around 20 times and at the same time at very low premium of just around 5% when i bought it.

I was confident that the market was still on the uptrend, thus high gearing would provide me with GOOD LEVERAGES and better profit. Leverage is like a double side knife, it can help us and it can destroy us too. I choose high gearing call warrants only when i am very confident that the market is on a VERY STRONG uptrend especially
when the uptrend has just started. I don't want the high gearing to work against me.

As I mentioned, I trim around 30% of my portfolio in early June as I was not confident that the trend would keep on going strong. I was a bit regret that I did not close all my position on Genm-ch. I was too greedy with the fast and big profit i gained from Genm-ch and I kept hoping for more.

I managed to close some of them at RM0.135. Ya, it was the peak. After that, a short-term downtrend came for the world markets. Genm-ch did not spared from that assault, Genm-ch started to drop fast. What worry me more was the Genm-ch was near its maturity (less than 30 days). So, i sold the rest of my Genm-ch shares at RM0.06 and RM0.045.

That is the consequence of letting bad emotion (GREED) take control of us. I have no one to blame but myself. But I am still glad that I learn something from this trade.

I MUST NOT HOLD OR BUY HIGH GEARING CALL WARRANTS IF I THINK THE UPTREND IS TIRED.

I am happy I manage to gain 60% on this trade within 2 months.

I think a new uptrend has just started last week and it is supported fundamentally by good quarterly financial reports.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

Saturday, July 25, 2009

Warren Buffett :Invest in Stocks Even At Dow 9000

Warren Buffett tells CNBC that the economy still isn't showing any signs of life but that doesn't mean investors should stay away from stocks for the long-term.

In a live interview on Squawk Box this morning, Buffett says "business is still flat." But he stresses that doesn't mean he's negative on stocks, predicting the market will revive before the economy does.

"The market is very, very likely to turn up before business. But I don't try and time stocks. I try to price stocks."

He repeats his advice from his "Buy American" op-ed in The New York Times last fall: don't wait to buy stocks until the economy improves. By then, he says, you will have missed the biggest stock gains.

Even with the Dow hitting highs for the year around 9000, Buffett repeats his belief that stocks will outperform cash investments, such as Treasury notes, over the long-term. "I would much rather own equities at 9000 on the Dow than have a long investment in government bonds or a continuously rolling investment in short-term money."

As usual, he points out he is not making any predictions about what the stock market will do in the next coming weeks or months.

Buffett repeats his belief there are "real inflationary possibilities" down the road, due to the massive stimulus being applied to the struggling economy. But he also repeats his view the stimulus is necessary despite the after-effects, because helping the economy recover should be the nation's top priority.

Buffett again endorses Ben Bernanke as Federal Reserve chairman, saying "I don't think you could have anybody better than Bernanke in the job. He understands all the issues."

Buffett's bearish comments today on the economy echo what he's been saying in recent weeks. Earlier this month, Buffett told us consumer sales remained "very, very soft" and about a month ago he said in a live interview on CNBC that he was seeing no "green shoots" on the economy.

Buffett declines to comment on Berkshire Hathaway's recent move to sell about 17 percent of its stake in the credit-rating agency Moody's (NYSE:MCO - News).

Buffett's live interview was designed to promote a new online animated series called Secret Millionaire's Club in which he voices a cartoon version of himself who helps teach kids about finance and investing.

Candlelight Vigil for Teoh Beng Hock

Candlelight Vigil for Teoh Beng Hock
赵明福追悼会:反贪委员会公信度何去何从?

Date: 24th July 2009 (Friday)
日期:2009年7月24日(星期五)

Time: 9.00pm
时间: 晚上9时

Venue/地点: Markaz PAS, Jalan Kebudayaan 12, Taman Universiti, 81300 Skudai, Johor

Speakers/主讲者:
Nor Azman Hashim, Pengarah Strategi PKR Johor
Zulkefle Ahmad, Timbalan Pesuruhjaya PAS Johor
Hanifah Maedeen, AJK PAS Pusat
YB Lim Kit Siang, MP Ipoh Timur
YB Gobind Singh Deo, MP Puchong,
YB Dr. Boo Cheng Hau, ADUN Skudai








Friday, July 24, 2009

Public Bank to continue its rally.

Public Bank Bhd said on July 23 that its non-executive chairman Tan Sri Dr. Teh Hong Piow was recently admitted to a local hospital.

"Upon the advice of his doctors, had undergone a minor operation which was completed successfully," it said.

"The board is pleased to inform that Tan Sri Dr Teh Hong Piow is making speedy progress and recovering well."

i am studying pbbank-ch, pbbank and pbbank-cj.

Good Luck in your trading, GOon.

BNM raids Asia Ceramic Marketing, seizes documents, assets

KUALA LUMPUR: Bank Negara Malaysia raided Asia Ceramic Marketing Sdn Bhd's office in Kuala Lumpur and seized assets and documents.
The central bank said on July 23 the raid and seizure of assets were carried out following complaints the public.
The investigations were carried out under Banking and Financial Institutions Act 1989 (BAFIA) and Section 4(1) of Anti-Money Laundering and Anti-Terrorism Financing Act 2001 (AMLATFA).
Section 25(1) of BAFIA 1989 prohibits any person from receiving, taking, or accepting deposits without having a valid license, whereas Section 4(1) of AMLATFA 2001 prohibits any person from engaging in, or attempting to engage in, or abetting the commission of money laundering activities.
It reminded the public to be cautious of deposit taking schemes and investment schemes offered through various channels such as the internet, phone calls, or seminars conducted by individuals or companies that are not licensed or approved by the relevant authorities.

I tried to warn my friends when they explained to me about this so called do-nothing-earn-money. In bahasa Malaysia, it is 4D (Duduk Diam Dapat Duit). They even showed me tonnes of awards and certificates to convince me that this was actually a legal business but i refused them. This is not the type of MLM (multi level marketing)/Business that i understand. I am quite active in MLM, in fact, through MLM, i manage to accumulate some capital to start my investment journey.

I join Luxor Network Sdn Bhd, I became a Diamond Manager on 2005 when i was still an undergraduate in UTM. After my study in UTM, i continued with my MLM, i became a Crown Manager in 2007 at the age of 24.

MLM changes my mindset. MLM is good, but please do not join 4D(Duduk Diam Dapat Duit)businesses and get-rich-quick schemes. if we join them, in fact, it would turn out to be a get-poor-quick scheme.

Thursday, July 23, 2009

WARNING!!! Don't always follow what analysts say!



Statistic has shown that, most financial analysts fail to beat the broad market when it comes to investing. I don't know what is the exact reasons they are lagging behind. I think some analysts, maybe some of them do not invest their own money in the market and lack of investing/trading experience, thus they cannot feel the emotion of the market. I know a few analysts, when i chat with them, they really make me feel like they do not invest in the market, they just analyze stocks. That's why analysts give wrong recommendation to investor.

I attach a 3-years recommendation on Bursa Malaysia Berhad by a well-known research firm. I am very disappointed with their recommendation. They are totally wrong!! They gave a BUY recommendation on Oct 07 when Bursa share price at the peak (RM15, HIGH, VERY HIGH). Then they give a SELL recommendation on Oct 08 and April 09 when it was near its trough (RM5, LOW, VERY LOW).

Investors who followed their advice would surely lose money. Analysts are asking you to buy HIGH and sell LOW. I don't why the analysts still keep on making this kind of errors. I truly think these analyst should resign.

In my humble opinion, Bursa is a cyclical company. Its share price will hit the peak when the market is hottest and when trading volume is at the highest point, thus Bursa would announce high profit. Then it will slowly move to the bottom. The correct way of buying Bursa should be buy low then sell high.

Luckily, the research firm gives a better recommendation (BUY)now. I am disappointed to learn that even currently there are a few analysts recommending us to sell Bursa. Look like they still haven't learn from their mistake. Look like they are about to repeat the mistake.

I think investors should start buying cyclical stocks (Bursa) when the companies profit starting to increase and not when the companies have earned record-breaking profit.

I am not writing this to belittle any analysts, i just want to share my opinion. If I were to bought Bursa based on this analyst's recommendation, surely i would have lose all my hard-earned money in the market. I would get my hand burned.

When i come across these type of analysts' reports, to make good of them, i would just do oppositely what the reports recommend. My portfolio would perform better this way than what they recommend to do.

After Bursa released its better-than-anticipated quarterly result on Monday, there are a few analysts still giving a SELL recommendation. Look like to me, it is a BUY (doing oppositely what they recommend).

Ok, good luck to me.

Wednesday, July 22, 2009

Silent outrage at Teoh's funeral



Silent outrage at Teoh's funeral from Indrani Kopal on Vimeo.





When the Nazis came for the communists,
I remained silent;I was not a communist.
When they locked up the social democrats,
I remained silent;I was not a social democrat.
When they came for the trade unionists,
I did not speak out;I was not a trade unionist.
When they came for the Jews,
I remained silent;I wasn't a Jew.
When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.
- Pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984) & GOon

Tuesday, July 21, 2009

Relief for AirAsia’s balance sheet

KENANGA Research has reiterated its trading buy recommendation on AirAsia Bhd at RM1.22 with an unchanged target price of RM1.50, based on FY09 price-earnings ratio (PER) of nine times, noting that it was positive on the airline’s plans to defer the delivery of 15 planes. The deferment would give a breather to the low-cost carrier’s stretched balance sheet already with a net gearing of 3.7 times as of March 31, 2009, it said.

AirAsia plans to delay eight and seven aircraft out of the scheduled 24 and 23 A320 deliveries for 2010 and 2011 respectively. The 15 delayed planes will be delivered in 2014.

“While management confirmed that financing for 2010 and 2011 is in place and attributed the deferments to uncertainty in the new LCCT’s (low-cost carrier terminal) completion date, we are more inclined to think that the delays are related to its heavily geared balance sheet.

“Coupled with the proposed RM500 million placement, AirAsia’s FY10 net gearing is expected to be reduced to 2.6 times from our original forecast of 3.5 times,” said the research house.

Apart from the A320s deferments, AirAsia was also looking to dispose of three B737s it owned and retire another 13 leased B737s used by its associates in Thailand and Indonesia.

“This is not unexpected of as management has always reiterated that it intends to replace all the B737s with its new A320s which are more efficient. AirAsia, however, needs to find new lessors for the leased planes to avoid penalty from early return of leased planes.

“Though we believe that it could be challenging to entice buyers or lessors in the downturn, disposal of any B737 is positive as the group stands to save leasing, fuel and maintenance costs through deployment of new A320s,” it said.

As an example, the enlarged group could utilise AirAsia X’s plane for the KL-East Malaysia routes during the year-end super-peak period without having to seek shareholders’ approval for the related party transaction, it added. On the idea of merging AirAsia and AirAsiaX mooted by the company’s chief executive officer, Kenanga said this would enable synergies between the short- and long-haul operation.

“As most investors are less familiar to the long-haul business and could be resistant to the proposed merger, management has decided to aggressively promote AirAsia X to both local and foreign investors.

“Nonetheless, we understand that the merger is not likely to materialise in the near term and will largely depend on investors’ acceptance of AirAsia X,” it said.
Kenanga Research said AirAsia’s management believed that strong ancillary income is the best buffer against volatile price as opposed to hedging which could involve margin calls.

“The group recently launched Redbox — a low-cost courier service which offers up to 80% price discount compared to other conventional courier services.

“Other projects in the pipeline include online currency exchange; duty free online shoppings; AirAsia savers account which comes with free flight rewards ; and Red Megastore — a growing online shopping website which will expand its products range to include various gadgets such as handphones, digital cameras,” it noted.

Kenanga said the near-term outlook for AirAsia was stable, and there were still strong forward bookings with fewer last-minute ticket sales indicating that more travellers are booking in advance to enjoy cheaper fares. Mounting competition and heavy promotional activities should continue to weigh on yield but benefits load factor, it said.

“We are adjusting our FY09 and FY10 profit forecasts higher by 1.7% and 1.1% respectively after factoring for lower yield, better load factor and reduced financing cost from the plane delays.

“Investors’ sentiment we believe has turned more positive towards AirAsia following the deferment plan and proposed share placement,” it said.

Annjoo. 70% profit




I still remember i wrote about Annjoo when i first started www.cathoon.blogspot.com. Ya, it was months ago. I posted it on 6 Feb 2009. Here is the link to that post http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/02/limited-downside.html

To help everyone recap it, i talked about stocks that with limited downside. They were WCT, Resorts (Genm), Genting, Annjoo and Bursa. I bought all these stocks expect WCT. During that time (Feb), they were all moving side way. Even though our god-blessed rally still had not started, but that time i really did think that the bottom had passed.

To be on a safer side, i started accumulating stock that with limited downside during Feb 2009 . I even got my share margin facility from a bank.

"Rule No. 1 : Never lose money.
Rule No. 2 : Never forget rule No. 1"
Warren Buffett

Beside with limited downside, there were a few reasons which prompted me to buy Annjoo. As you can see, Annjoo dropped from RM4.18 on 14 May 2009 to just RM1.10 when i bought it on 24 Feb 2009. How many precent did Annjoo drop?! Listen carefully, Annjoo dropped 75%. Incredible! The other reason was during that time, construction sector had rebounded but building material industry still HAD NOT. Common sense, construction needs steel. And of course, Annjoo (construction sector) would benefit from our government first stimulus plan.

I sold all my Annjoo shares on 8 July 2009. I make 70% profit from this. I still like Annjoo very much. It is fundamentally strong and the worst is over for steel company. Annjoo will gain benefit too if our government were to plan our 3rd stimulus plan. The reason i sold all my Annjoo shares was because Annjoo did not dropped much in last June compared to other stocks in my portfolio, in fact, it was moving side way. So, i sold Annjoo for other stocks that were severely punish in last June.

Current,I am testing Annjoo-wb too.

Ok, good luck in your trading! Nice to have the bull back again.

US Leading Economic Index Rises Again in June. Yes, again!

More plans to build homes, higher stock prices and fewer people filing first-time claims for jobless aid sent a private-sector forecast of U.S. economic activity higher than expected in June.

It was the third straight monthly increase for the New York-based Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators, and another sign pointing toward the recession ending later this year.

The index rose 0.7 percent last month. Wall Street analysts polled by Thomson Reuters expected a gain of 0.4 percent. May's reading was revised up to a gain of 1.3 percent from 1.2 percent, while April was scaled back to 1 percent growth from 1.1 percent.

The group also said activity in the six-month period through June rose 2 percent, with an annual growth rate of 4.1 percent. That's the strongest rate since the first quarter of 2006.

The index is meant to project economic activity in the next three to six months.

If these conditions continue, "expect a slow recovery this autumn," said Conference Board economist Ken Goldstein.

The Conference Board's leading indicators index bottomed in March after peaking in July 2007. The decline accelerated last fall after investment bank Lehman Brothers collapsed and credit markets froze.

"We're now getting data which points to stabilization," said Josh Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at research firm MFR Inc. "The overall signal they're sending is the slide in economic activity is poised to end. The jury is still very much out in terms of what happens after that."

Many analysts expect modest economic growth in the fourth quarter after the gross domestic product posted the worst six-month performance in about 50 years at the end of 2008 and beginning of this year.

Stocks rose modestly on Wall Street. The Dow Jones industrial average added about 40 points in midday trading, and broader indices also edged up.

Seven of the Conference Board index's 10 indicators rose in June, including building permits, stock prices, manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and positive readings on jobs. Consumer expectations, manufacturers' orders for capital goods and the real money supply weighed down the forecast.

The biggest gainer was the "interest rate spread." That's the difference between yields on 10-year Treasurys and the federal funds rate, at which banks lend to one another, which is at a record low near zero. A big difference between the two is viewed as positive because investors are willing to lend for longer periods.

A government report last week showed construction of new U.S. homes in June rose to the highest level in seven months. That was the "most positive housing report in ages," said IHS Global Insight economist Patrick Newport.

The slump in housing led the country into the longest recession since World War II. The downturn has pushed the unemployment rate to a 26-year high of 9.5 percent. The Federal Reserve expects joblessness to surpass 10 percent this year and to stay above healthy levels for years.

Mass layoffs continue across many sectors, but the pace and depth of job cuts have slowed.

Monday, July 20, 2009

Latest update: Bravo Public Bank and Bursa! Bravo

MALAYSIA'S third-largest lender Public Bank reported today a net profit of RM619.939 million (US$174 million) for the second quarter, up 2.1 per cent and said it expects performance for the rest of the year to remain satisfactory.

Public Bank is the first Malaysian bank to report its April-June financial results. Top lender Maybank and second-ranked CIMB Bank are scheduled to release their quarterly earnings in August.

Net profit in the first half was RM1.2 billion

MALAYSIA'S stock market owner Bursa Malaysia saw its second quarter net profit rise 22.3 per cent to RM35.02 million (US$9.83 million) from RM28.64 million a year ago.

The company said in a statement today that revenues rose to RM94.58 million from Rm85.67 million.

For the first half of the year, net profit was RM50.52 million, down from RM70.71 million.

It is to pay a dividend of 10.1 sen per share for the second quarter, down from 16.50 sen a year ago

Sunday, July 19, 2009

Stock to Watch on 20 July 2009: Public Bank and Bursa

Two big capitalised companies are due to announce their second quarter results on July 20 – Public Bank and Bursa Malaysia – which could see investors’ attention focused on the companies.

Strong earnings from the companies would underpin market sentiment, especially from Public Bank which analysts expect it to outperform its peers despite the weaker economic climate

RHB Research has maintained its outperform call and fair value of RM11.50 on Public Bank as it believes investors would switch their focus to the bank’s earnings prospects.
“With investors’ focus switching to 2010 earnings prospects, we believe its (Public Bank) 1H09 share price underperformance should reverse with upward bias in 2H09.

“Concerns (capital, dividend payout and maintaining high return on equity) that have weighed down on its 1H09 share price performance have been overplayed and are likely to be the catalyst for share price performance in 2H09,” it said in a recent report.

The strong trading volume in the second quarter and the rally should also underpin Bursa Malaysia’s earnings.

For sure, these 2 big guns will go bang bang loud. So, please watch out.

Bursa: fundamentally strong, monopoly business, record-breaking trading volume.

Public bank: one of the finest bank in Asia and Malaysia, sound management, fundamentally strong. Mr Teh, Public bank founder, is one of Malaysia best entrepreneur.

Saturday, July 18, 2009

Bursa Malaysia Berhad set to double profit in Q2

Bursa Malaysia Bhd is expected to double its net profit to over RM30mil in the second quarter from RM15.5mil in the first quarter, given the strong market trading activities in the past few months, analysts say.

The anticipated strong second-quarter performance has prompted analysts to lift their earnings forecasts for the local stock exchange operator for this year and beyond.

Bursa Malaysia is scheduled to release its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30 on Monday.

HwangDBS Vickers Research said the daily trading volume and value on the local bourse in the second quarter soared to 1.63 billion shares and RM1.49bil respectively.

In the first quarter, the average daily trading volume was 410 million shares worth RM620mil.

In addition, the average daily volume for derivatives surged 23% quarter-on-quarter and 40% year-on-year, driven by the uptrend in the FTSE Bursa Malaysia Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (FBM KLCI) and higher crude palm oil prices.

“As such, we expect Bursa to register a net profit of RM30mil to RM35mil in the second quarter compared with RM15.5mil in the first quarter and RM13.5mil in the fourth quarter 2008,” the brokerage said in a research note.

The renewed bullish sentiment on Bursa in the past several days was in tandem with gains in regional bourses following positive indications from the United States and major Asian economies.

Bursa-cl (call warrants) looks attractive to me. Bursa's profit is surely going to go up and its operation costs will be more or less the same. This will provide investors with higher net profit and ROI.

Bursa-cl (call warrants) looks attractive to me.

Enjoy your trading.

We want justice! Protesters want MACC probed!



When the Nazis came for the communists,
I remained silent;I was not a communist.
When they locked up the social democrats,
I remained silent;I was not a social democrat.
When they came for the trade unionists,
I did not speak out;I was not a trade unionist.
When they came for the Jews,
I remained silent;I wasn't a Jew.
When they came for me,
there was no one left to speak out.
- Pastor Martin Niemöller (1892–1984)

Beng Hock, Good bye. I want justice!

These 2 days i have been feeling sad and at the same time feeling angry. What happen to Teoh Beng Hock (the political secretary to Selangor executive councillor Ean Yong Hian Wah)? I did not know Beng Hock personally, but i really feel the pain. I can imagine how Beng Hock's parents, fiancee and family feel at this moment. I can imagine how they feel when they see Beng Hock's picture on newspaper. It would be devastating. Moreover, Beng Hock's fiancee is 2 months pregnant, and they were to register their marriage today. I am totally lose. I surely will not believe Beng Hock would commit suicide.

Beng Hock was reportedly assisting the Malaysian Anti-Corruption Commission (MACC) in its investigations into the alleged misuse of constituency funds by several state assemblymen. His body was found on the fifth floor of Plaza Massalam in Shah Alam on Thursday, mere hours after he was interrogated by the MACC at its office on the 14th floor of the building. Ya, he was just assisting an invesitgation, he was not the suspect. MACC, please tell me what happened to this poor Beng Hock.

I want justice! I want justice! I want justice!

Datuk Seri Nazri Abdul Aziz, please shut up! I am even more disappointed when i know he say ""Jadi, dia patut balik rumah. Kita pun tak tahu dia nak terjun bangunan tu...," (Beng Hock should back home, we also did not know he wanted to jump from building).

Nazri, please shut up! You did not know whether this is a homicide or not too!

All this time, to be frank, I do not really have confident in our PDRM (Polis Diraja Malaysia) and MACC. With this case, I am totally lose confident in them. They are suppose the be neutral and they are suppose the serve our country well. Now i really do not whether they are friends or foes. PDRM and MACC seems like they have became one of BN party component.

I want Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission (IPCMC)!
I want Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission (IPCMC)!
I want Independent Police Complaints and Misconduct Commission (IPCMC)!

The IPCMC was a significant response to the reports of police abuse and misuse of power by various individuals and organisations to the Royal Commission.

Beng Hock, goodbye.

Friday, July 17, 2009

Orang terakhir jumpa Teo: Saya didera SPRM...

Ahli Majlis Perbandaran Kajang, Tan Boon Hwa mencerita pengalaman perit yang dilaluinya ketika disoal siasat oleh Suruhanjaya Pencegahan Rasuah Malaysia (SPRM) Rabu lalu, berhubung dakwaan salahguna peruntukan untuk DUN di Selangor.

Tan disoal siasat oleh SPRM pada hari yang sama dengan Teoh Beng Hock - setiausaha politik exco kerajaan Selangor - yang ditemui mati, dipercayai jatuh dari bangunan pejabat SPRM jam 1.30 petang semalam.

Tan mendakwa, dua pegawai SPRM yang menyoal siasatnya, cuba mendapatkan pengakuan palsu daripadanya, dengan memaksanya menafikan telah membekalkan 1,500 ribu bendera Malaysia bagi satu majlis sambutan hari Kemerderkaan di DUN Sri Kembangan.

Sewaktu sesi soal siasat tersebut, katanya, pegawai berkenaan menggunakan teknik 'polis baik dan polis jahat' - pada mulanya bersikap baik tetapi kemudiannya bertindak kasar dan memaksanya berdiri selama empat jam dari pukul 10 malam hingga 2 pagi.

Tan berkata, ada beberapa kali dia diancam dengan keganasan fizikal, di mana seorang pegawai menuding ke dahinya dan didakwanya berkata: "Kami jangan bohong. Saya boleh pukul kami. Percayalah!".

Sewaktu disoal siasat, katanya, pegawai yang lain masuk ke bilik untuk mempersendakan kelemahannya bercakap dalam bahasa Malaysia dan memanggilnya dengan istilah yang kesat - Cina bodoh - dan bertanya sama ada dia rakyat China.

Yang paling teruk, kata Tan, ialah ancaman terhadap keluarganya yang disifatkannya sebagai satu 'penderaan mental'.

"Mereka kata, jika saya tidak cakap benar, mereka akan ambil isteri dan tiada siapa yang akan menjaga anak-anak saya. Tetapi saya tidak beralah," kata Tan dalam satu sidang akhbar di bangunan setiausaha kerajaan negeri hari ini.

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/108712

反贪委员会暴力逼,供站着盘问四小时,官员恫言殴打

与赵明福同一天被带往问话的加影市议员陈文华,今日挺身揭露反贪污委员会在盘问他的过程中,诉诸暴力和恐吓手段,更以种族性言论辱骂他。

陈文华是与雪州行政议员欧阳捍华政治秘书赵明福,同一天被带往雪州反贪污委员会总部协助调查。

陈文华今午在雪州大臣卡立等民联领袖的陪同下,与州政府大厦召开记者会,一一道出他被问话的数个小时历程。

陈文华表示,他是因为在去年国庆日期间,向史里肯邦安选区(欧阳捍华选区)提供总值2400令吉,为数1500支的国旗,而被反贪污委员会带往问话。

他说,在他于15日晚上9点抵达雪州反贪会总部后,官员一开始表现温和有礼,但不久后手段却转为粗暴。

据他的忆述,反贪会官员的粗暴手段包括,肃立4小时录取口供、种族性言论侮辱、恐吓要“殴打”(hantam)他,也曾说要把他孩子也带来反贪污委员会,企图逼他承认罪状。

“他们问我,到底是哪家公司供应那批国旗。我答说已不记得,但有单据存于家里。不料他们却不满说,你倒记得何时结婚,就只是这些会忘记。”

陈文华(左图)表示,他是因为在去年国庆日期间,向史里肯邦安选区(欧阳捍华选区)提供总值2400令吉,为数1500支的国旗,而被反贪污委员会带往问话。

他说,在他于15日晚上9点抵达雪州反贪会总部后,官员一开始表现温和有礼,但不久后手段却转为粗暴。

据他的忆述,反贪会官员的粗暴手段包括,肃立4小时录取口供、种族性言论侮辱、恐吓要“殴打”(hantam)他,也曾说要把他孩子也带来反贪污委员会,企图逼他承认罪状。

“他们问我,到底是哪家公司供应那批国旗。我答说已不记得,但有单据存于家里。不料他们却不满说,你倒记得何时结婚,就只是这些会忘记。”

陈文华也说,他在晚上10点开始,到凌晨2点,被官员要求肃立,眼望200公尺的前方,动也不能动地接受盘问。

“只要我动一下,就有官员向我咆哮。一直到两点为止,官员才说,‘我很可怜你,你现在可以坐在地上。’”

陈文华表示,反贪会共派出2人在室内盘问他,但在室外却有3至4人聆听,而每当他说话时,一定被室外的官员嘲笑和愚弄。

“一些官员还用手指着我的眉心,向我说,‘你是愚蠢华人,你来自中国啊?不明白马来文吗?’”

握拳做状殴打,威吓脱他衣裤

陈文华揭露,一些官员甚至质问他,是否疼爱其妻子与孩子,若爱的话,就不应该撒谎。

“我就坚决地告诉他们,我没有撒谎。官员就说,‘我现在甚至可以指示你脱掉衣服和裤子。’”

陈文华说,该些官员还恫言,反贪会可以把他的妻儿带到总部,声言这是要免去他对妻儿的牵挂。

他也表示,一些官员也拿起腰包或握拳,做状要打他,虽然并没真正动手,惟却令他饱受精神折磨。

“他们说,要看看我可以耐多久,还威吓我说,反贪会可以关我三天,看我能否受得了!”

反贪会声言不需搜查令可进屋

陈文华也忆述当日从家中被带走的情形。他说,当时反贪会的官员直闯进他家中,在没有搜查令,也没出示身份证明下,就任意搜查其电脑及文件。

“那些官员说,反贪会不需要搜查令,都可以去任何地方。”

凌晨6点看到赵明福神情疲累

陈文华续表示,他曾于估计凌晨6点左右,到茶水间喝水时,看见赵明福当时坐在那,神情显得疲累与伤心。

“我的手表和手机已全被没收,所以不知道确实时间,只从微亮的天色估计那是6点左右。”

“我在茶水间看到明福,就问他‘明福,怎么你还在这?’。明福只是头低低地向我‘嗯’了一声。”

“过了5分钟后,我上了厕所准备回去时,已经没有见到明福。”

Thursday, July 16, 2009

Yeah, downtrend broken!

These few days, it is not hard to notice that the downward momentum has been broken. The broad market is moving upward. Besides, to make things even sweeter, the upward momentum is supported by high volume and good fundamental news. Basically the whole world is looking at how US stock market performance. Goldman Sachs and JPmorgan better-than-anticipated quarterly result, China's economy grew faster than forecast in the second quarter and US jobless claims drop, all these positive news help to move the world market upward and I expected the upward momentum to GO ON for weeks.

In my humble opinions, when big companies released good quarterly financial result, this will lead to other public listed companies to releasing good quarterly financial result as well. In business world, all companies are linked together directly or indirectly.

The main problem that caused US economy crisis are housing and banking turmoil. It is good to know that the banks are getting healthier and existing/new home sales are increasing as well. Bravo.

Basically, when a clear trend is formed, it needs some big news to break it.

Although some investor (aka Guru) said that the bottom has yet to come, but i am not buying it. I am saying the bottom is already behind us. I come across a Singaporean investment Guru repeatedly saying DOW is going to return to a mere 6000 points. It is not impossible, but i think it need tonnes of C4 to bom us there.

From his blog, i think he missed most of the March-June rally, as he kept saying DOW would reach 6000 points. Luckily, it did not. Now Dow is 8600+. And yet, he still dares to give classes on trading/investing. That is why i dislike about those self-claimed investment gurus. Most of them do not trade/invest after they start teaching. Why? there is risk associated with trading/investing. Teaching does not have any risk, these gurus they are happy enough to earn thousand of dollars from each and every students for just a few classes.

For your reference (different "investment guru" from whom i mentioned above):
http://www.asiaone.com/News/Education/Story/A1Story20080829-84946.html

http://www.straitstimes.com/vgn-ext-templating/v/index.jsp?vgnextoid=74c030c735bff110VgnVCM100000430a0a0aRCRD&vgnextchannel=4e60758920e39010VgnVCM1000000a35010aRCRD

Beware, give yourself a second thought when you are considering spending thousand of dollars on a-few-day investment courses.

(Maybe)These gurus WERE good, but they ARE NOT as good as they used to be. When i first started to invest/trade, i used to admire these investment guru, but i am not anymore. They make me believe that earning money in stock market is easy, but in fact it is not. 80% of investors lose in stock market.

No matter it is doing business, investing, trading, or in real estate, earning money is never easy. It needs lots of knowledge, hard work and discipline as well.

Good luck and take care.

Yours sincerely,
GOon

Opcom



Opcom Holdings Berhad is a Malaysia-based investment holding company engaged in the renting of buildings and provision of management services to subsidiaries. The Company operates in three segments: manufacturing, trading and engineering services, and other operations. Manufacturing segment is engaged in the manufacture of fiber optic cables and systems. Trading and engineering services is engaged in providing network and engineering services, and general trading activities of specialty chemicals and related materials. Other operations segment is engaged in management services and investment holding activities. Its subsidiaries include Opcom Cables Sdn Bhd, Opcom Niaga Sdn Bhd and Opcom Shared Services Sdn Bhd. In July 10, 2008, the Company completed the disposal of its entire 100% equity interest in Opcom Network Technologies Sdn Bhd to Lingkaran Senada Sdn Bhd.

I don't really do my research on MESDAQ stocks. Opcom, MESDAQ stock,is recommended to me by my father. I was a bit late when i bought Opcom. By the time i bought Opcom, it already surged 100% within few days. It was because Opcom announced that it just received a huge fiber optic project.

Opcom is a strong fundamental MESDAQ company and it pays good dividend. Because of these reason I started buying Opcom 1000 shares on 24 April 2009 and 7 May 2009 respectively. I also noticed on April 2009 MESDAQ stocks move up a lot. I thought maybe the strong upward momentum (for MESDAQ) could be maintained.

In fact, the strong upward momentum did not managed to be maintained. The upward momentum became soft. It started on move sideway since mid of June 2009. Moving side way was not that bad, during the same period, my portfolio decreased 15-20% in value. It was a blessing in disguise.

I wanted to sell Opcom since last week but i did not. It is because it still did not manage to find replacement for Opcom until today. I sold all my Opcom shares at RM0.70. Including the dividend paid, I manage to gain 15% of profit. It is not a huge gain, but I am happy for this trade too because compared to other stocks in my portfolio, Opcom outperform most of them during June 2009.

Mulpha




Mulpha International Berhad is engaged in investment holding. The Company, through its subsidiaries, is engaged in property development and investments; hotels and service apartments ownership and operations. Other activities of the subsidiaries include manufacture and distribution of paints and trading, servicing and rental of construction equipments. The Company operates in four segments: property, which comprises property development and investments and car park operation; hospitality, which consists of hotel and service apartments’ ownership and operations; manufacturing, which involves manufacture and sale of paints, and general trading, which comprises trading and rental of construction equipments. Other operations of the Company comprise investment in securities. On September 19, 2008, the Company acquired 38% interest in Rotol Singapore Ltd. Mulpha Land Berhad disposed of Purnama Suri Sdn Bhd on February 13, 2008. In July 2009, the Company acquired Rosetec Investments Limited.

One of the reasons i bought Mulpha was because Mulpha was one of the public listed company which down most in 2008. The news was published in The Star a few months ago. Besides Mulpha, in the report Zelan, Pelikan and LCL were also the companies which down most in 2008. I like to buy the stock that down most. Currently Pelikan and LCL are still part of my portfolio.

I have uploaded the 3-year chart for Mulpha and you all can see it for yourself. It is a "beautiful" chart. I cant resist myself, so I bought 10000 shares at RM0.375 on 16 April 2009 and another 10000 shares at RM0.415 on 27 April 2009.

To be honest, I did not apply any technical skill when i chose to buy Mulpha. I just noticed the downtrend had broken and it become uptrend starting around mid of April 2009. without further ado, I just grabbed it and it turned out to be a good trade. I said to myself, if Mulpha manage to go back to its early 2008 or 2007 share prices, i would have gained a whopping 400-600% of profit, so I thought if Mulpha could not hit 400%, maybe it could let me reap 100%.

I sold all my Mulpha on 16 July 2009 at RM0.53. Outcome of the trade, I manage to gain around 34%. The reason is not i cease to like Mulpha anymore. I have an opinion that since the current short-term downtrend has been broken, maybe I can try my luck with Mulpha-wa (Mulpha warrant) for higher leverage.

I notice mulpha-wa dropped more than 50% since last month.

Let's pray my mulpha-wa would turn out to be a fantastic trade too.

Tuesday, July 14, 2009

US stocks in highest one-day gain in six weeks

NEW YORK: Rising bank stocks propelled indexes to their biggest one-day gain in six weeks Monday after influential banking analyst Meredith Whitney raised her rating on Goldman Sachs Group Inc. The bank reports earnings on Tuesday.

Whitney said also on CNBC that hard-hit Bank of America Corp. looks inexpensive given the assets on its books.

Her upbeat, albeit still cautious, tone on banks helped lift the Dow Jones industrial average 185 points in relatively thin trading volume.

It was the best performance for the blue chips since June 1 and follows a month of often directionless trading in which investors looked for any fresh sign that the economy was improving, not simply licking its wounds.

Traders saw good news in banks as a sign other industries could be in better shape than analysts had estimated. Hundreds of earnings reports from the April-June quarter are due this week.

Goldman has long been considered the strongest bank amid the economic downturn, but Bank of America has been one of the hardest hit by loan losses.

Any improvement in banks' profits could shore up their financial position and free money for lending.

Investors latched on to Whitney's comments because she has for years offered one of the more pessimistic - and accurate - assessments of the banking business.

While she remains cautious about the industry over all, the shift in tone gave the market a jolt.

Beyond Goldman, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase & Co., and Citigroup Inc. are all scheduled to report second-quarter results this week.

Banks have taken some of the biggest blows among U.S. companies since the recession began in late 2007 as investment and loan losses mounted.

"There is a contingency of traders out there that believe the market can't recover without financials," said Randy Frederick, director of trading and derivatives at Charles Schwab.

Earnings reports will give investors a chance to see whether there was any meaningful economic improvement during the second quarter, and so far expectations are relatively low.

Stocks rallied in the spring amid hope of a recovery in late 2009, but the market has struggled since mid-June as more investors began to doubt that assessment.

The Dow rose 185.16, or 2.3 percent, to 8,331.68.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index jumped 21.92, or 2.5 percent, to 901.05, its first finish over the 900 mark since July 1. It was the S&P's best day since June 1.

The Nasdaq composite index rose 37.18, or 2.1 percent, to 1,793.21 and also posted its best performance since the start of June.

The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 12.33, or 2.6 percent, to 493.31.

Three stocks rose for every one that fell on the New York Stock Exchange, where volume came to 1.2 billion shares compared with 922 million Friday.

The market's moves can be skewed when fewer shares are changing hands.

Among financial stocks, Goldman rose $7.57, or 5.3 percent, to $149.44 and Bank of America rose $1.11, or 9.3 percent, to $12.99.

The KBW Bank Index, which tracks 24 of the nation's largest banks, rose 6.5 percent.

The short-term buy call on Goldman from Whitney comes after the stock has risen 72 percent this year, but investors appeared to be looking past the fact that it had already had such a big advance.

"You're going to have people who were originally second-guessing what to do and not wanting to miss an opportunity to get in," said James Barnes, fixed income manager at National Penn Investors Trust Co., referring to bank stocks.

Many analysts had been expecting the company would turn in strong profits for the second quarter.

Goldman last month repaid the $10 billion it received last fall as part of the government's $700 billion bank bailout program.

Some financial stocks were still struggling, however.

Commercial finance lender CIT Group Inc. said it is talking with regulators about ways to improve its short-term liquidity as recent losses may jeopardize its compliance with capital requirements.

Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Monday from London that he was confident the government has the authority and the ability to address the crisis at CIT.

The stock fell 18 cents, or 11.8 percent, to $1.35.

Earnings reports are expected from major companies in a range of industries this week, including Dow industrials components Johnson & Johnson, International Business Machines Corp. and General Electric Co. and technology bellwethers Intel Corp. and Google Inc.

"People are focused on sectors battered the most to see if there is any bounce-back," said Dan Deighan, founder of Deighan Financial Advisors in Melbourne, Florida.

Financial firms and retail companies will probably be the most closely watched industry as earnings are released, he said.

Data coming out this week also will offer insight into the economy. Investors will get readings on inflation, retail sales, industrial production and housing starts.

Last week, stocks fell for a fourth straight week and the Dow dropped to 8,147, its lowest level since April 28.

Since mid-June, investors have been giving back some of the 40-percent gains picked up during a vigorous rally that began in March.

Concerns have been mounting that the rally was overdone and investors are now waiting for fresh signs the economy is actually improving instead of just weakening at a slower pace.

The gains in stocks cooled demand for the safety of government debt, hurting prices and lifting yields.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note jumped to 3.36 percent from 3.30 percent late Friday.