Friday, May 29, 2009

CBOE volatility index-updated


This is an update to my 14 may 2009 post on CBOE volatility index. http://cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/05/cboe-volatility-index-fear-index.html

For the past 3 month VIX is trending downward. In my humble opinion, I think there is an inverse relationship between VIX and stock market indexes. What i see from this chart is investors/traders are getting more and more confident with equity market.

Let's hope that the current rally can last longer!

AirAsia -- success of low-cost model




It is good to know that after 2 quarters of losses, Airasia Bhd finally releases a satisfactory quarterly report. AirAsia Bhd’s earnings rose 26% to RM203.15 million in the first quarter, up 26% from RM161.28 million a year ago.

The higher earnings were due to higher yields, lower unit costs and one-off Rm48.53 million item gain. Revenue rose 33% to RM714.18 million from RM535.32 million.

Yield rose 12% to 13.7 sen per ASK, while unit costs fell 18% to 8.6 sen per ASK while load factor declined to 69.7%. AirAsia also said second-quarter passenger traffic is headed for a 21 per cent jump, matching last quarter’s increase as budget-conscious travelers look for cheap air fares.


Based on bookings in the second quarter, passenger demand “remains robust,” AirAsia said.

Airasia Bhd is one of the company I like most. Airasia Bhd is expanding fast even during this difficulty time but at the same time other airlines are closing down. The carrier’s surging traffic contrasts with slumps at regional rivals including Singapore Airlines Ltd., which is cutting routes and capacity.

The airline expects to fly 24 million people this year as the company adds routes in India and expands flights to existing destinations in China. AirAsia, which has ordered 175 Airbus SAS planes, is increasing its capacity by about 20 per cent each quarter.

On overseas operations, Thai AirAsia had performed exceptionally well to counter the weakening domestic consumer sentiment as a result of the internal political disturbances. It posted an operating profit of RM30.5mil for the period.

Good job Airasia. Malaysia boleh!

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Financial Wisdom From Three Wise Men

Some of us are more disciplined than others. Shortly after we are born, we start to learn the rules of life. Some of these rules we had to learn the hard way, through trial and error. Others we learned from our parents. Learning from others in this way is often easier, however, we seem to do a better job of remembering the lessons we learn the hard way. As investors, we have a choice. We can learn the hard way and hope that we'll survive our lessons and not run out of money, or we can learn from the following three wise men.

Three wise men - Warren Buffett, Dennis Gartmen and Puggy Pearson - found very different methods to achieve financial success, but they all share a common trait - their success came by following a strict set of rules. In this article we'll show you nine rules that three wise investors live by.

The World’s Greatest Investor
Warren Buffett, the "Oracle of Omaha," is considered by many to be the greatest investor ever. He is also known for giving much of his $40 billion fortune to the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, which is dedicated to bringing innovations in health and learning. Buffett is primarily a value investor that closely follows Benjamin Graham's investing philosophy after having worked at Graham's firm, Graham-Newman.

Buffett has several excellent investing rules. You can read about many of them in his company's (Berkshire Hathaway) annual reports, which are an excellent source of investing knowledge.

Here are three of Buffett's rules:

1. Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1.
If you lose money on an investment, it will take a much greater return to just break even, let alone make additional money. Minimize your losses by finding quality companies that are temporarily selling at discounted prices. Then follow good capital management principles and maintain your trailing stops. Also, sitting on a losing trade uses up time, money and mental capital. If you find yourself in this situation, it is time to move on.
2. The stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient.
The best returns come from those who wait for the best opportunity to show itself before making a commitment. Those who chase the current hot stock usually end up losing more than they gain. Remain active in your analysis, look for quality companies at discounted prices and be patient waiting for them to reach their discounted price before buying.

3. The most important quality for an investor is temperament, not intellect.
You need a temperament that neither derives great pleasure from being with the crowd or against it. Independent thinking and having confidence in what you believe is much more important than being the smartest person in the market. Most of the time, the best opportunities are found when everyone else has given up on the stock market. Over-confidence and emotion are the enemies of a high quality portfolio.

The Great Trader Gartman
In the October 1989 issue of Futures magazine, Dennis Gartman published 15 simple rules for trading. He is a successful trader who has experienced the gamut of trading from winning big to almost losing everything. Currently, he publishes The Gartman Letter, a daily publication for experienced investors and institutions.

Here are three of Gartman's best rules:

1. There is never one cockroach.
When you encounter a problem due to management malfeasance, expect many more to follow. Bad news often begets bad news. Should you encounter any hint of this kind of problem, avoid the stock and sell any shares you currently own.
2. In a bull market only be long. In a bear market only be short.
Approximately 60% of a stock's move is based on the overall move of the market, so go with the trend when investing or trading. As the saying goes, "The trend is your friend."
3. Don't make a trade until the fundamentals and technicals agree.
Fundamentals help to find quality companies that are selling at discounted prices. Technical analysis helps to determine when to buy, the exit target and where to set the trailing stop. A variation of this is to think like a fundamentalist and trade like a technician. When you understand the fundamental reasons that are driving the stock and the technicals confirm the fundamentals, then you can make the trade.

The Gambler
The wisdom of the late two-time champion world poker player Puggy Pearson offers our last set of rules to follow. "Only three things to gamblin'," Puggy once said, "knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition, money management and knowing yourself." Well, those rules apply to investors too.

Here are Pearson's all-encompassing rules:

1. Knowing the 60/40 end of a proposition
Understanding the odds of drawing a winning hand is essential to poker. The 60/40 bets are those that offer the best chance of winning given all the options available. If you only play hands that have these odds or better, the statistics are on your side.

As investors, we should strive to put the odds in our favor with every trade. Finding the best 60/40 opportunities takes time and research, as there are many ways to find good candidates. These can be identified through individual stock selection, top-down or bottom-up approaches, technical or fundamental analysis, value-based pricing, growth-oriented, sector-leaning or whatever approach works best for a particular investor. The point is that investors must be constantly working toward finding and recognizing opportunities as they present themselves. Once you have been dealt the right cards, it's time to take the next step.
2. Money Management
Managing money is an ongoing process. The first tenet is to minimize losses on each opportunity. Fortunately, investors do not have to ante up to play, as in poker, though investors must work hard to find good opportunities. Once you have a good hand, it is time to decide how much money to commit to the opportunity.

While much is written on this topic, let's keep it simple. Basically it is a risk-reward decision. The more money you commit, the greater the possible reward and the higher the risk of losing some of that money. However, if you do not play, then you cannot win.

Basically, when the best opportunities present themselves, it is usually wise to make a significant commitment. For good (but not great) opportunities, committing smaller amounts makes sense as the potential reward is less. As in poker, most of an investor's money is made in small increments with the occasional big win coming along every once in a while. This requires that an investor evaluate each opportunity compared to others that have shown themselves in the past. Experience is an excellent teacher. Finally, investors can use a stop-loss strategy to mitigate greater losses should their assessment of the opportunity prove to be wrong. Too bad gamblers don't have such a tool! 3. Knowing Yourself
The last gambling rule, knowing yourself, means doing everything you can to stick to your discipline. Everyone wants to get on with it to make the next trade, but if that opportunity does not fit within your measure of a good 60/40 opportunity, then you must force yourself to pass. While you will miss some good gains, this will also save you from some hefty losses. Following your discipline is essential for success as a gambler as well as an investor. You must be extraordinarily patient in your search for the right opportunities and then aggressively go after the best ones.

Conclusion
Each of these three wise men excels by following his rules. In this way, they have succeeded where many others have failed. While we might not be as wise as these three men, we can learn from the best.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/06/threewisemen.asp

轰翁诗杰屈服压力展延公布报告

5月21日 下午4点47分
针对一再延宕的巴生港口自贸区丑闻(PKFZ)稽查报告,民主行动党国会领袖林吉祥炮轰马华总会长兼交通部长翁诗杰的说词反反复复,如今再改口把是否公布这份稽查报告的问题交由内阁解答。

“真让人难于置信!翁诗杰不是早在4月29日,就斩钉截铁的下令巴生港务局“在7天内”公布普华永道对PKFZ丑闻的稽查报告?”

林吉祥强调,国人今天有权质问翁诗杰及大马反贪污委员会(MACC)在内幕重重的120亿令吉自贸区丑闻上玩甚么把戏?

拖延借口一个接一个出炉

他指出,翁诗杰目前又有新的说法,声称普华永道会计公司(PricewaterhouseCooper)对自贸区丑闻的稽查报告是否公布的问题,将由内阁解答。

“为何拖延借口一个接一个出炉后,有关报告至今依然无法见天日,又把球踢回给内阁,而国人之前被告知,内阁已允许翁诗杰公布该份报告,翁诗杰也因此在4月29日下令须在7天公布报告?”

丑闻飙至120亿天文数字

林吉祥认为,大家没必要再提醒翁诗杰15个月前信誓旦旦要公布自贸区丑闻真相,以及“纸包不住火”等言论,尤其这丑闻已不断的膨胀,从2002年林良实当交通部长时的18亿令吉膨胀到陈广才当交通部长时,成本又翻一番成为46亿令吉,再到翁诗杰当交通部长时的120亿令吉天文数字。

翁诗杰目前说由内阁决定是否公布报告,他是否在承认,他的交通部长权力已被削减,以至他较早时的公布决定,被神秘和强大的势力所推翻?

为何翁诗杰向那些不要公布报告者低头,而同意把决定权交回内阁?

难道翁诗杰目前不应表明身为交长的他,将决定是否公布报告的立场,而非把球踢回给内阁?

国人显然要翁诗杰采取这种他之前在自己部落格中表明的公布立场。

刘天球四度报案无动于衷

此外,星报今天刊出“大马贪污委员会介入-开始调查PKFZ计划”的封面新闻,指一组布城的大马反贪污委员会(MACC)官员,已开始盘问那些涉及有关计划的人。

报导指出:

据知,一组布城的大马反贪污委员会官员,已开始调查及盘问那些对有关计划知情的人。

了解有关调查的消息说,预料一旦反贪污委员会获得会计公司普华永道的报告,就将加强调查行动。

他们说,反贪污委员会将研究有关报告,了解是否有新的因素可以让该委员会跟进。

预料反贪污委员会也将联络巴生港务局的一些人,以作为它的调查工作的一部份。

反贪污委员会的调查总监莫哈末苏克里证实调查在进行中,但他不愿详述。

林吉祥质问反贪污委员会在走甚么棋,给人一种突然间要采取行动,只待上述报告公布就调查的印象?

他指出,现任雪州行政议员刘天球在他担任行动党的非政府组织局主任时,自2004年12月开始的18个月内,就针对自贸区丑闻向警方或反贪污局作出4项投报,反贪污局或现在的反贪污委员会,如果调查是彻底、能干及专业的话,没理由不能根据有关的信息及文件著手。

“最为荒唐的是,反贪污委员会的立场似乎很无知,好像是首次接到有关自贸区丑闻消息那般,在等待普华永道的报告,以取得较多的情报来跟进。”

林吉祥强调,刘天球自2004年12月针对丑闻向反贪污局报案4次后,反贪污局没查出任何的不当或罪行;因他也要求全面彻查反贪污局,因为该局的掩盖行动,足以比拟自贸区丑闻中的大恶不赦罪行。

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/104813

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

economic cycle vs water cycle. do they look the same?




The concept of Economic Cycles, which are sometimes referred to as Business Cycles, is a theory that attempts to explain changes in economic activity that vary from a long term growth trend as observed in a developed market economy. Factors considered in defining an economic cycle include growth of GDP, household income, employment rates, etc. Economic Cycles are divided into two main categories: booms and recessions. Booms are associated with a strong economy, while recessions are characterized by below-trend economic growth. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is considered the authoritative source in the US that reports the dates of the peaks and troughs that quantify Economic Cycles. NBER defines economic cycles a bit differently than Economic Cycle Theory.

Rather than booms and recessions, it classifies the economy as being in expansion or contraction. Expansion is when several pieces of economic data are improving, and contraction is a decline in the same data. These definitions focus more on the movement of data, whereas the boom/recession definition only refers to the data's position relative to historical averages.

The basic idea behind economic cycles is that they're more than just mere fluctuations in economic activity and are significant enough to be "widely diffused over the economy.". A short term decline in economic activity has historically been observed to be followed by a short term gain in economic activity. Observed over longer periods, the highs and lows average out to form the trend, or average, economic growth rate. The Economic Cycles Theory holds that although this trend growth rate is subject to change, it has remained relatively steady in the past, thus theoretically indicating the general rate of economic growth that we can expect to see in the mid-term future. No attempt is made by Economic Cycles Theory to describe economic activity during extended periods of decline, only growth.

Booms and Expansions

Key features of an economic boom:

* Above-trend GDP growth
* Higher disposable incomes
* Less unemployment

Recessions and Contractions

Key features of a recession:

* Below-average GDP growth. The historical definition of a recession is when the economy has two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Usually by the time the official reports come available to identify a recession the market has already priced in the recession. Most recessions have a time span of 18-24 months.
* Lower disposable incomes
* Higher unemployment rates
* Decreased consumer spending is caused by the above mentioned conditions, lower disposable income from inflationary pressures, higher commodity prices such as oil, or food sources. The less spending can lead to higher unemployment. Many times this first shows in the retail sector. The three items mentioned, basically, will manifest itself on the other and snowball into a recessionary period.

Economic cycle repeats all the time just like water cycle repeats all the time. Our economy cycle never fails, boom and recession are part of the cycle just as transpiration, evaporation and rain are part of water cycle. It is just because most people like it when the economy booms and hates it when the economy is in recessions. Some people gain millions during recessions because recession gives them the chance to buy great businesses at very low prices and let them expand their businesses at the lowest cost. Survival of the fittest. A good example, Airasia is expanding now when other airlines are shutting down. I like Airasia (sound management and cheap).

Some people like rainy days and some people people like sunny days. Some people like recessions and some people like booms. In the end, it is which side you are taking. I think the most important thing is that we must get ourselves ready for each of the situations.

Quit now, lawyers tell IGP, home minister. Agree! Agree! Agree!



I really think IGP and home minister should step down. They misused their power. These lawyer are not dangerous and they are not going to harm anyone.

In fact, IGP and home minister should focus on solving more serious crimes like snatch thief.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Genting Sold



Finally, I sold all my Genting shares after holding them for 3 months. The reason is not I dont like them anymore. Genting is the one of the stock I like most. I sold them because I wanted to switch from Genting stock to their call warrants. I am very satisfied with Genting's performance.

In my previous posts, I already shared some of my thoughts on my blog regarding Genting on 25 March 2009, 23 Feb 2009, 12 Feb 2009 and 6 Feb 2009. In fact, Genting is still one of my favourite stock.

I managed to realise a 20% on my Genting trade. I did learn something important from this trade. It reminded me not forget about resistance and support level. Prior to closing this trade, I did not care about resistance level. I was too confident that in this current uptrend, all resistance level would be broken and it would go up and up all the way. In fact, this was not the case.

I still remember last few weeks I told my friend that I was not going to let go Genting because its resistance was going to be RM5.00. When Genting reached RM5 on 7 May 2009, I did not follow my pre-set decision to sell them at RM5. What happened next? Genting started to fall. Then only I looked back at the chart and decided to sell them.

Discipline is important in trading stock. Discipline. Discipline, Discipline.

Currently, I am studying genting call warrants, especially genting-co.

Ok, enjoy your trading.
GOon

Saturday, May 16, 2009

Warren Buffet on "Putting your money under your mattress, is it the right thing to do right now?


AMMB net profit rises to RM860.8mil



AMMB Holdings Bhd yesterday announced net profit of RM860.8mil for the financial year ended March 31, 2009, up 29% from RM668.5mil the year before on lower provisions and minority interest payouts.

It is confident that its strategy for viable growth and rebalancing portfolio will strengthen its resilience to the global economic crisis.

“Retail, business banking and assurance segments were the main contributors to profit growth, while the investment banking and market trading results were impacted by difficult market conditions,” Group managing director Cheah Tek Kuang told reporters at a results briefing yesterday.

The group’s asset quality showed improvement and it had a lower non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 2.6%.

For the year, AMMB Holdings posted earnings per share of 31.61 sen versus 28.24 sen for its 2008 financial year.

Cheah says NPLs may increase slightly to 4% for its current financial year due to difficult market conditions but bad loans would drop to 3% by the banking group’s 2012 financial year.

However, Cheah noted that the bank was well capitalised to face future challenges with Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 9.7% and total risk weighted capital adequacy ratio of 15.2%.

Net lending growth was expected to increase by 4% for its current financial year. Net loans lending was up by 8.3% to RM56.9bil in last year from the group’s 2008 financial year.

Meanwhile, deputy group managing director and chief financial officer Ashok Ramamurthy says the group’s capital expenditure was expected to increase by 30% to 50% or possibly higher this year as it would invest to position itself for an upturn in economic conditions the following year.

It expected the Second Stimulus Package (of RM60 billion announced by the Federal Government on March 10) to shield the economy from the worst impacts of the global downturn.

“We have spend about RM100mil (last financial year) to increase the number of branches and automated teller machines (ATMs) in high traffic volume locations as part of our key strategic initiatives,” he said.

The group had opened seven branches and set up 227 ATMs in various locations last financial year.

The group intends to increase its branches to more than 200 by 2011 from 187 currently.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Trading MTV

commerze-cf versus commerze




On 14 April 2009, I noticed that commerze-cf premium was only around 6%. It was a low premium call warrants compared to others available call warrants in Malaysia. I bought 40000 shares of commerze-cf on 14 April 2009. Besides low premium, one of the reason I bought the call warrants because Commerze's CEO was Dato' Sri Nazir Razak. He is our prime minister's younger brother. So I thought Commerze could gain some advantage by having that kind of relation with our prime minister.

On 15 May 2009, I sold all the commerze-cf call warrants. I notice that its mother shares (commerze) had reached its resisitance level. I managed to close the position at RM0.165. It was the highest level of the day. Beside that, i wanted to take some profit off the table as i was not confident that the rally could keep going on without a near term correction. Most the counters listed on KLCI moved downward, so i thought i should sell those which move upward and buy those which move downward.

I managed to gain a 50% profit on commerze-cf within a month. If i were to buy commerze instead of its call warrants, I could only manage to gain around 15%.

Ok, enjoy your trading.
GOon

Thursday, May 14, 2009

sime-cg (call warrant) versus sime




On 10 April 2009, I noticed that Sime gained around RM0.35 from RM6.15 to RM6.50, sime-cg still hadn't respond to it. KLCI was moving upward on that day too. So I bought 20000 of sime-cg at RM0.135 (total investment capital was RM2700). RM0.135 was the lowest price of the day. I was right, sime-cg responded to its mother share and closed at RM0.15. I was happy as I managed to gain an unrealised profit of 11% on that day.

On 14 May 2009, I noticed that sime had reached its resistance level. I was not confident that sime would keep moving upward, so i sold all my sime-cg at RM0.18. On that day, sime closed at RM6.55.

With a investment capital of RM2700, if I were to buy sime (stock) at RM6.15 on 10 April 2009 and sold them on 14 May 2009, I could only manage to realised a profit of 6.5% (RM175).

With the same investment capital of RM2700 invested on sime-cg (call warrant), I managed to realised a profit of 33% (RM900).

The leverage effect enables me to gain exposure to the underlying through a small amount of money.

Enjoy your trading.
GOon

Power of Leverage- Warrants

A warrant, like an option, gives the holder the right but not the obligation to buy an underlying security at a certain price, quantity and future time. However, unlike an option, an instrument of the stock exchange, a warrant is issued by a company. The security represented in the warrant (usually share equity) is delivered by the issuing company instead of an investor holding the shares.

There are two different types of warrants: a call warrant and a put warrant. A call warrant represents a specific number of shares that can be purchased from the issuer at a specific price, on or before a certain date. A put warrant represents a certain amount of equity that can be sold back to the issuer at a specified price, on or before a stated date.

Warrant certificates have stated particulars regarding the investment tool they represent. All warrants have a specified expiry date, the last day the rights of a warrant can be executed. Warrants are classified by their exercise style: an American warrant, for instance, can be exercised anytime before or on the stated expiry date, and a European warrant, on the other hand, can be carried out only on the day of expiration.

Warrants can offer significant gains to an investor during a bull market. They can also offer some protection to an investor during a bear market. This is because as the price of an underlying share begins to drop, the warrant may not realize as much loss because the price, in relation to the actual share, is already low.

The fundamental advantage of buying a call warrant, as opposed to a direct investment in the underlying asset, resides in the leverage effect that warrants offer. When buying warrants, the investor is required to outlay only a small proportion of the underlying asset price.

The leverage effect enables investors to gain exposure to the underlying through a small amount of money.

CBOE Volatility Index (fear index)


Market volatility indicator reflects relative calm.

VIX is the ticker symbol for the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index, a popular measure of the implied volatility of S&P 500 index options. A high value corresponds to a more volatile market and therefore more costly options, which can be used to defray risk from volatility. If investors see high risks of a change in prices, they require a greater premium to insure against such a change by selling options. Often referred to as the fear index, it represents one measure of the market's expectation of volatility over the next.

The price of call options and put options can be used to calculate implied volatility, because volatility is one of the factors used to calculate the value of these options. Higher (or lower) volatility of the underlying security makes an option more (or less) valuable, since there is a greater (or smaller) probability that the option will expire in the money (i.e. with a market value above zero). So a higher option price implies greater volatility, other things being equal.

Investors believe that a high value of VIX translates into a greater degree of market uncertainty, while a low value of VIX is consistent with greater stability.

Traditionally the VIX has traded between 10 and 30. The VIX hit a record 89.5 in October at the height of the financial market meltdown.The index spent most of the first quarter in the mid- to upper-40s. In April it fell below 40 and it's currently in the low-30s. The recent downward movement indicates a sense of relative calm from big swings in the stock market.

But with the historical average around 18, the current level is nearly twice the norm. That means that while investors feel better than they did last fall and even earlier this year, they believe some market uncertainty still lingers. Their strengthened comfort level can be attributed, at least in part, to progress being made to stabilize the nation's banks. Investors have a better understanding of the government's bailout plan and they've seen some glimmer of hope that the recession may end later this year.

Saturday, May 9, 2009

Berkshire Hathaway reports a $1.5B 1Q loss

OMAHA, Neb. (AP) -- Warren Buffett's company reported a $1.5 billion first-quarter loss as it wrote down its ConocoPhillips investment and mostly unrealized derivative losses helped drag Berkshire Hathaway's results below last year's $940 million profit.



Berkshire Hathaway Inc. said Friday it recorded a loss of $990 per share in this year's quarter, down from the $607 net income per Class A share reported in the same period a year ago. It was Berkshire's first quarterly loss since 2001's third quarter when the company suffered large insurance losses as a result of the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.

Analyst Justin Fuller, who writes about Berkshire online at http://www.buffettologist.com, said this was a tough quarter for Berkshire with the only bright spots coming in its utilities and insurance companies, which include Geico and General Reinsurance.

"Not surprisingly, every other business has been flat on its back in the last quarter," said Fuller, who works with Midway Capital Research & Management in Chicago.

Berkshire's revenue fell 9.5 percent in the quarter, to $22.8 billion from last year's $25.2 billion.

In his shareholder letter, Buffett already acknowledged a mistake in last year's purchase of a large amount of ConocoPhillips stock when oil and gas prices were near their peak.

Berkshire said Friday it sold 13.7 million of its 79.9 million shares of ConocoPhillips during the first quarter and additional shares were sold after the quarter to generate a loss that can offset past capital gains taxes. Berkshire reported a $241 million loss on the sale of investments in the quarter, compared to a $76 million gain on the sale of investments in the same period a year ago.

It also recorded a $1.9 billion after-tax charge to reduce the value of its remaining 71.2 million shares to March 31 values. Berkshire said in a news release that it expects to be able to recover $690 million in federal capital gains tax payments made in 2006 if it records capital losses this year of at least $1.98 billion.

Berkshire's derivative losses moderated in the quarter as the value of the contracts tied to equity indexes improved. But Berkshire had to pay out $675 million on derivative contracts tied to the credit risks of individual companies during the quarter.

Since the quarter ended, Berkshire paid out another $450 million on credit default derivatives, leaving it with about $3.3 billion in reserves for future losses on those contracts.

During the quarter, Berkshire recorded an overall loss on its derivatives of $986 million, down from a $1.1 million loss last year, and most of those losses weren't realized because most of the contracts don't mature for several years.

Fuller said investors should look beyond the $1.5 billion net loss because most of that was tied to the ConocoPhillips write down and unrealized derivative losses, so it's not as if Berkshire burned through $1.5 billion cash.

Berkshire executives say the company's operating earnings are a better measure of how the company is performing in any given period because those figures exclude its derivatives and investment gains or losses. Berkshire reported $1.71 billion in operating earnings in this year's first quarter, which was down nearly 12 percent from $1.93 billion in operating earnings a year earlier.

Berkshire executives typically do not comment on quarterly earnings reports, and they did not respond to an interview request on Friday.

Buffett said during the company's annual meeting last Saturday that Berkshire's utility and insurance businesses performed fairly well during the quarter because neither is greatly affected by the recession, but two one-time items affected the utility earnings.

Berkshire's insurance businesses generated an underwriting profit of $219 million and investment income of more than $1 billion in this year's first quarter. A year ago, the insurance unit delivered $181 million underwriting profit and an $802 million investment gain.

Morningstar analyst Bill Bergman said Berkshire is still in a good position compared to many other companies in the market, especially other insurance companies.

"I'm expecting them to gain market share in the next couple years," Bergman said about Berkshire's insurance businesses.

Berkshire's MidAmerican Energy utility unit generated $203 million net income in the quarter, down from $316 million.

Many of Berkshire's other businesses, such as its jewelry stores, Shaw carpet, Acme Brick and Clayton Homes, have been hurt by the recession and corresponding slowdown in consumer spending. Berkshire's manufacturing, service and retail division generated $258 million net income in the quarter, down from $487 a year ago.

Berkshire finished the first quarter with a total of $25.6 billion cash. But Buffett has said the day after the first quarter ended, Berkshire spent $3 billion of its cash to help Dow Chemical acquire rival chemical company Rohm & Haas. Berkshire made that commitment last summer, but the Dow deal didn't close until April 1.

Berkshire owns more than 60 subsidiaries including insurance, clothing, furniture, and candy companies, restaurants, natural gas and corporate jet firms. Berkshire also has major investments in such companies as Coca-Cola Co. and Wells Fargo & Co.

Berkshire Hathaway Inc.: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com

Monday, May 4, 2009

Don't give up on your dreams. She really inspired me!



If the video is lagging, here is the link to Susan Boyle youtube video.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lp0IWv8QZY

Susan Boyle, she is the greatest. I feel so emotinal after watching her performance. She definitely deserves a standing ovation! (this video on youtube has been watched by more than 50,000,000 people since 11 April 2009!

I really think everyone should have a dream. Yes, we must have a dream if we want our dream to come true! Don't give up on your dream. Without dreams, life would be like zombie.

I would to wish everyone dreams come true! Fight for our dream!


Here are the Lyrics(I dreamed a dream from Les Miserables) -

I dreamed a dream in time gone by

When hope was high,

And life worth living

I dreamed that love would never die

I dreamed that God would be forgiving.

Then I was young and unafraid

When dreams were made and used,

And wasted

There was no ransom to be paid

No song unsung,

No wine untasted.

But the tigers come at night

With their voices soft as thunder

As they tear your hopes apart

As they turn your dreams to shame.

And still I dream he'll come to me

And we will live our lives together

But there are dreams that cannot be

And there are storms

We cannot weather...

I had a dream my life would be

So different from this hell I'm living

So different now from what it seems

Now life has killed

The dream I dreamed.

Saturday, May 2, 2009

why 80% of investors lose money in stock market?

I guess this is how most of the 80% investors/traders react to stock market. They buy high and sell low. Bravo!!!

In my humble opinion, one of the way to gain in stock market is to buy stocks when everyone is avoiding it and sell the stocks when everyone is fighting hard for it. It is really a simple strategy.

When people shout at you for buying stocks and you are a lonely investor----BUY signal.
When all uncles and aunties are putting their hard-earned money into stock market and coffee shops are filled with stock-market related chats------SELL signal

The right thing to do is to buy low and sell high. Does it sound easy? I don't know.

Is our Country our HOME?

First of all, I would like to say Malaysia is my one and only home. I love my home and I will protect my home.

This morning when I was driving my fiance to bus station, I saw usual thing happened but I felt weird about it. That time I was waiting for my turn to move at a junction nearby my home at Taman Pulai Utama, Johor. In front of me was a Toyota Unser ( PER 968X). Ya, I don't feel weird about that car! But i was very disappointed with the mentality of the driver of the car. I saw with my very own eye that, he/she threw an tissue paper out of the car onto the road without feeling shame of his/her action.

I guess he/she did not see his/her country as his/her home. But they will say "I love my country". I feel weird about it. Do they really mean it? I do not think we throw rubbish like that when we are at our home.

In my opinion, I think many Malaysian lack the mentality of keeping our country clean. Hence, it is an usual thing to see people throwing rubbish everywhere (places that the rubbish shouldn't been thrown).

When the roads are dirty and filled with rubbish, those people will blamed it on the janitors not doing their works properly. In fact, if those people throw the rubbish into a rubbish bin, our roads will look clean even without the help of janitors.

Our economy would be more efficient, if more of our workforces are focus on manufacturing field instead of cleaning the roads.

Love our country. Love Malaysia.