Saturday, October 24, 2009

KLK-CH 50% unrealised profit


Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK) is engaged in the business of producing and processing palm products and natural rubber on its plantations. The Company’s subsidiaries are engaged in the business of plantation, manufacturing, retailing, property development and investment holding. The Company has a plantation land bank of more than 210,000 hectares in Malaysia (Peninsular and Sabah) and Indonesia (Belitung, Sumatra and Kalimantan). It operates in six business segments: plantation, manufacturing, retailing, property development, investment holding and others. In April 2009, the Company, via one of its subsidiary, acquired a 17% equity interest in PT Sekarbumi Alamlestari (PT SA) from Forever Green Venture Ltd., which increased its interest in PT SA to 65%. During the fiscal year ended September 30, 2008, the Company acquired Ladang Perbadanan-Fima Berhad, and disposed of a 60% stake in Barry Callebaut Malaysia Sdn Bhd, formerly KL-Kepong Cocoa Products Sdn Bhd.

To be frank, I am not really very interested in plantation stock. After looking through Sime, IOICorp and KLK stock performances, I have to admit that these plantation companies' share price are stable and consistently climbing up. There are hardly any big corrections for their share prices. I guess I will start to study plantation sector too.

On 8 September 2009, I bought KLK call warrant (KLK-ch) at RM0.205. I can remember it was trading at 2-3% discount with gearing of 3-4. I really like warrants/call warrants with discount.

Basically my strategy is very simple, i just try to look for those low premium (if not discount) warrant/call warrant with its mother trading near its resistance. At the same time, the fundamental of the company must be Ok. The fundamental of the companies do not have to be very good.

Now KLK-ch is trading at RM0.295. This trade provides me with unrealized profit of almost 50% in 6 weeks of holding period.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

Friday, October 23, 2009

Budget 2010: Khazanah, banks, Bursa, rating agencies' response

Tan Sri Azman Mokhtar
Managing Director, Khazanah Nasional Bhd



This was a delicate budget to craft given the trilemma of the fragility of the global economic recovery, the need to address the fiscal deficit and the urgent drive for structural transformation towards a more innovative and competitive economy.

Against this difficult backdrop, it was a balanced yet bold budget. The evidence of taking the bull by its horns is most apparent in the significant cut in government expenditure, the first in 23 years, and especially in operating expenditure.

While the market and the public will await the crucial implementation details, the boldness of the budget is also evident in addressing difficult but pivotal issues such as the focus to reduce fuel subsidies, some early moves towards a more open and progressive automotive policy, preparing the ground for a broader tax base and tackling bureaucracy in critical areas such as education and human capital policies.

The ongoing work and the repeated focus on NKRAs will certainly help support the need to get greater bang for the limited buck that a fiscal consolidation year will demand.

There is much for Khazanah and our Government-Linked Companies (GLCs) to continue doing and supporting in this budget; from driving and aggregating private investments, implementing investments in niche growth sectors and continuing with our transformation programme.


Datuk Seri Abdul Wahid Omar
President & CEO of Maybank and Chairman of the Association of Banks in Malaysia



I must say that I am pleasantly surprised by the Government's commitment to reduce Budget deficit from 7.4% in 2009 to 5.6% in 2010. This is more aggressive than the level forecast by most analysts at around 7 to 8%.

This should instill greater confidence in the Government's prudent financial management, promotion of 'value for money' concept in spending, targetted fuel subsidy management and even instilling the entrepreneurial spirit among civil servants.

I am referring to the proposal to encourage Government agencies to rent out their premises & equipment to third parties where they get to keep 50% of the revenues!

For the financial services industry, we welcome the extension of tax incentives for the promotion of Islamic financial services and further liberalisation of the capital markets.

The flexible brokerage sharing between stockbrokers and remisiers will allow greater flexibility for brokers to reward good performing remisiers which is currently capped at 40% of brokerage fee. We also welcome the mandating of electronic payment of dividends for listed companies which will further promote e-payments and reduce administrative burden of listed companies and shareholders alike.

The Budget 2010, however, contained two aspects which will affect the financial services industry. Firstly on the introduction of RM50 per annum service tax for credit and charge cards. Secondly on the reintroduction of RPGT, albeit at a much lower rate of 5%.

Whilst this may reduce some speculative elements in the property market, it will also result in lower growth in housing/property loans for the banks.

For the individual taxpayers, there is plenty to cheer in the form of higher tax reliefs totaling RM2,500 (inclusive of broadband subscription) and lowering of top personal income tax rate from 27% to 26%. Thank you YAB Prime Minister.

Datuk Seri Nazir Razak
Group Chief Executive, CIMB Group

It's a well crafted, action oriented budget. It is refreshing to see initiatives that are so consistent with the announced thrusts and policy direction of the administration.

The budget will stimulate the private sector, enable us to reduce dependency on the government and set the stage for the new economic model, while the forecasts made will alleviate concerns about the fiscal deficit.

We also welcome the liberalisation of remisier commission sharing as this is well overdue and will enhance competitiveness of the stockbroking industry.

Datuk Yusli Mohamed Yusoff
Chief Executive Officer, BURSA MALAYSIA BHD []



The 2010 Budget announcement made by the Prime Minister today certainly reinforced the Government's commitment towards ensuring steady and sustainable long-term economic growth. We are pleased with some of the measures announced in stimulating the capital market.

The liberalisation of the commission sharing arrangement between stockbrokers and remisiers will balance the risk-return ratio for the remisiers. This market based commission incentive model will motivate the remisiers towards galvanising more interest by investors in the stock market as an investment option. We also hope that this market based incentive model will see more new blood entering the industry.

In moving towards a more internationalised investment platform, we are pleased to note the allowance of 100% foreign equity participation in corporate finance and corporate financial planning companies. We hope this will see more international names capitalising on this opportunity, and diversify the level of offerings and talents to benefit the Malaysian market. We also see this spurring more corporate actions in the market.

Bursa Malaysia has always worked towards increasing business and operational efficiency and we believe that TECHNOLOGY has served us well in giving greater efficiency, access and convenience, as is evident in our implementation of services such as Direct Market Access (DMA).

We are also seeing electronic trading gain greater traffic as time goes by and this certainly complements the announcement that all listed companies are required to offer e-Dividends to their shareholders. This will reduce time and provide convenience to the shareholders. As a listed company, Bursa Malaysia already offers its shareholders e-Dividend payment mode as an option for the benefit of its shareholders. Issuers too, will benefit from the ease of implementation.

The Government's objective to reduce financial dependence via privatisation of some of its companies and agencies will hopefully see these government assets coming to the capital market to raise funds via listing.

Bursa Malaysia is committed to efforts to position the country as an Islamic investment hub, and we are pleased with the announcements made in today's Budget that further cement this intent. We look at the announcements collectively as an incentive to further facilitate the internationalisation of our Islamic finance capabilities and attract foreign issuers and non-Ringgit issuers to Malaysia.

The stamp duty exemption of 20% on Islamic financing instruments will encourage further issuance of sukuk and Islamic finance notes. In giving tax exemption on banking profits derived from overseas operations, it will encourage the internationalisation of banks and we see a spillover effect to complement capital market activities. We see these announcements facilitative of our efforts in making Malaysia the preferred destination for Islamic finance investment and fundraising.

I am pleased to note that amidst the incentives to enhance the competitiveness of the capital market, protecting the integrity of the market and country has not been compromised. We are encouraged by the Government's stance on the formulation of a Whistle Blower Act. This will greatly complement our corporate governance framework that will ensure that we maintain a market of integrity.

Jeffrey Chew
Director & CEO, OCBC Bank (Malaysia) Bhd



In the 2010 National Budget, the Prime Minister has hit the right notes to reshape the economy by focusing on education, ICT and green technology to propel the nation into a high income economy. At the rakyat level, consumers would now enjoy a greater level of disposable income via the various tax deductions and other personal tax relief.

The budget deficit for 2010 is estimated at 5.6% of GDP, which we believe is achievable. The lower deficit position is mainly due to the government's proposed total allocations of RM191.5b, down 11.2% from the previous 2009 allocations of RM215.7b. The move toward improving fiscal discipline is laudable especially since the Malaysian economy is expected to see a less severe contraction of 3% this year and should recover to grow by 2-3% in 2010. Generally, we view the Government's intention to reduce its deficit position will be positive to the debt capital market as the supply of Government securities are no longer expected to blow out of proportion.

The budget's focus on private investment, especially in attracting FDIs and privatising companies under MOF, is a good economic initiative to strengthen the growth drivers.

Retail banking
While we understand the Government's effort to encourage prudent spending, we are concerned over the imposition of the service tax of RM50 for principal credit cards and RM25 for supplementary cards respectively. This may only increase the burden of both the industry and the consumer. The credit card is a product of payment convenience and facilitates cash substitution. Therefore, the imposition of this tax would not curb its usage or necessarily encourage prudent spending.

The imposition of the 5% real capital gains tax on PROPERTIES is a counter-productive move in encouraging property investments among local and foreign investors, particularly in attracting REITs investors. Furthermore, this would make Malaysia's property market less attractive as compared to our neighbouring countries in Southeast Asia despite our property prices being among the lowest in the region.

Capital markets
The tax neutrality between conventional and Islamic financing has been further fine-tuned to ensure that the non-RM sukuk market is given further prominence with various tax incentives. These include tax exemptions on profits derived and expenses incurred from the issuance of sukuk and special purpose vehicles (SPV) established under the Offshore Companies Act for the purposes of issuance of Islamic securities, amongst others.

Whilst these measures will indeed drive the supply of non-RM sukuk and thus position the country as a strong regional Islamic sukuk hub, critical measures are still required to be undertaken to develop a regional-level sukuk market. These entail, amongst others, developing a regional clearing & settlement system, a vibrant secondary market by virtue of price transparency, promoting regional credit rating agencies and harmonising Shariah standards.

Islamic banking
We are encouraged by the Government's continued commitment to Islamic banking with the various tax incentives that continue to be granted. This augurs well for our efforts to make Malaysia a vibrant Islamic finance hub.

Najib Abdullah
Group Managing Director, MIDF


Malaysian Industrial Development Finance Berhad (MIDF) said it is confident Budget 2010 will provide the necessary momentum to the economy amid signs that a revival is under way. It is also a precursor to the new economic model that the government is formulating.

The stimulus programme has been an effective response to the global financial crisis and the government appears to be building an orderly exit framework. It is important to ensure that such a programme does not become a permanently entrenched feature of the public sector as it is definitely not sustainable over the long term.

Although total government spending in 2010 is budgeted to be 11.3% lower than that this year, most of the cutback will come from operating expenditure and not development expenditure.

This is a clear indication that the government is focused on enhancing the management of public services, rooting out operational inefficiencies. It is about increasing productivity and channelling precious resources towards capability building and more strategic purposes.

An indictment of this is the fact that total government's subsidies budgeted next year is only RM20.9 billion, down from the RM24.5 billion spent in 2009 and RM35.2 billion in 2008.

The message is clear - moving forward, subsidies will be more discriminating and targeted, rather than inefficiently spread across the board.

Through its Development Finance Division, MIDF was allocated RM50 million and RM125 million under the First and Second Stimulus Package respectively to be extended to SMEs and non-SMEs in the form of soft loans.

Soft Loan Scheme for Services Capacity Development (SLSCD), provided in the first stimulus package was aimed at improving the productivity of the services sector while the Soft Loan Scheme for Automotive Development (SLSAD) is to assist the automotive parts and components manufacturers to rationalise their operations.

To date, the allocations under the SLSCD has been fully committed. As for SLSAD, RM86.2 million has been approved. MIDF has sufficient applications in the pipeline to take-up the balance of SLSAD and we foresee the funds will be exhausted by the end of the year.

From MIDF's standpoint, the Budget is conducive for the business community given the focus on the services sector as the GDP growth driver in 2010. The 20101 budget has laid the foundation for a new and holistic economic model.

As a strategic business enabler to the 548,267 Small and Medium Enterprises (SME) companies in Malaysia, which make up 99.2% of all established businesses in the country and contribute 32% of the national Gross Domestic Product (GDP), MIDF is pleased to note that the interests of the SMEs are addressed in the Budget.

This is in consonant with the overall objective to raise the contribution of SMEs to GDP to 37% by 2010, from the 32% estimated in 2005. The move to rationalise the number of funds and grants, as well as enforcing the deadlines for micro financing approvals and disbursements are positive for the growth and development of the SMEs in Malaysia.

The 2010 Budget announcement is timely since the previous SME funds allocated to MIDF through SME Corp. had all been fully committed. MIDF lauds the announcement on the additional RM350 million SME funds, of which RM200 million will be made available in the form of soft loans. These soft loans will give access for SMEs to tap for funding at concessionary interest rates.

MIDF's role is to facilitate the accessibility of these funds to SMEs and provide continuous effort aimed at building their capabilities and capacities to stay resilient and competitive, thus contribute to the country's drive towards high income economy.

The Malaysian capital market is experiencing a recovery currently with the FBM KLCI index closing the week at 1,267 points, its best performance this year. The move to liberalise the commission structure with effect from 2011 in the equity market will carry positive long-term benefits, as it will create more robust competition.

This also applies to the move to allow full foreign ownership in corporate finance and financial planning firms. MIDF welcomes further moves to liberalise the financial services sector as it believes that competition and market forces are necessary ingredients for a robust capital market and more importantly the rakyat.

In the final analysis, the Budget has painted a generally cautious optimistic macro scenario next year, with GDP growth projected to be at only 2.5%, a pace which is slower than the world's output growth as projected by the IMF. It reflects conservative baseline expectation with regard to the economic performance in the U.S. and major Europe. Should there be a meaningful turnaround in those economies, MIDF expects Malaysia to stand ready to reap the benefits and growth could be more robust than anticipated.

Winter Chill

Dear Winter Chill,

Thank you very much for your support. At the same time i would like to apologize to you as i never respond to your comments. It is because i never realize if there are any comments on my blog. It is my mistake. In future, i would try best to respond to your comments. I really appreciate it.

Good luck.

yours truly,
GOon

HwangDBS sees stronger steel demand ahead

HWANGDBS Vickers Research said current steel prices are being supported by restocking activities, and while the prices of steel bars and rods of between RM2,200 and RM2,300 per tonne could dip at the end of the year although upcoming mega projects will help maintain prices in 2010.

“Although the timing of these mega projects is still fluid, we understand that packages of the more imminent low-cost carrier terminal and Pahang-Selangor water transfer projects are likely to be awarded by end-2009 and 2Q10, respectively,” the research house said.

With the current restocking activities improving steel demand, utilisation at most steel mills had risen since June 2009, with KINSTEEL BHD []’s upstream utilisation jumping to 100% from 50%, and SOUTHERN STEEL BHD []’s overall utilisation rising from a low of 50%.

It added that as a result of the improved utilisation, coupled with stronger steel prices, gross margins improved in 2Q09, with Southern Steel recording a 2% gross profit margin versus an 11% gross loss in 1Q09, while Kinsteel’s gross loss narrowed 33% quarter-on-quarter.

“We anticipate margins to continue to improve over the next few quarters, and foresee better earnings visibility in FY10-FY11F,” it said.

HwangDBS Vickers also said in addition to the government’s mega projects expected to deliver “meaningful new demand in FY10-FY11, the sector should benefit from a weaker US dollar versus the ringgit. It said between 60% and 70% of domestic scrap requirements, mainly denominated in dollar, and all iron ore were imported.

The research house also expected 3Q09 to show positive operating earnings compared to losses in 1H09, driven by margin improvement as a result of recovering steel prices and higher capacity utilisation, while the inventory holding period had also improved to three months from between four and six months at the start of the year. It said following that, both Southern Steel and Kinsteel had stronger cash flow positions.

Meanwhile, it said going forward, downside risks for steel players should be limited following the recovery in feedstock prices, with the international price for iron ore at stable levels for the past 10 months, and now hovering at an average of US$103/tonne (RM349).

The research house has upgraded Southern Steel and Kinsteel to buy from hold, with target prices of RM2.40 and RM1.30, respectively.

The target prices were based on 1.3 times net tangible asset (NTA), consistent with one standard deviation of the respective historical means. “At our target prices for Southern Steel and Kinsteel, they would be trading at 12.1 times and 13.7 times CY10F earnings,” added HwangDBS.

Kinstel




Lately i have been trying to search for the best warrant/call warrant. I prefer a "safe" trade. I searched through the top premium warrants list available on my trading platform and i found kinstel-wa.

On 7 October 2009, i bought kinstel-wa as it was trading about 5% discount to its mother, kinstel. This mean it is better to buy kinstel-wa compared to kinstel. Besides, the expiry date was more than 2 years away. The gearing is around 1.5. I bought kinstel-wa at RM0.70.

I did not study much about kinstel fundamental as I think kinstel is a fundamentally good company. From the chart above, we can see that kinstel is trading side way at a thin volume compared to 3 months ago.

I expect kinstel to start jumping up as its volume start increasing.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

Genting Malaysia buys RM50.8m Wynn notes

Genting Malaysia Bhd has subscribed for US$15 million (RM50.85 million) worth of mortgage notes issued by the subsidiaries of Wynn Resorts Ltd as the former looks to further diversify away from its domestic turf.

“The notes represent a good opportunity for Genting Malaysia to expand its investment portfolio and enhance returns on its existing cash balances,” it said in a statement issued via Bursa Malaysia yesterday.

As of June 30, 2009, the casino operator had over RM5 billion cash and cash equivalents. Genting Malaysia said Wynn Resorts offered the notes as part of the latter’s private placement exercise.

The subscription of the notes came about four months after Genting Malaysia bought a 3.2% stake in the biggest operator on the Las Vegas Strip, MGM Mirage.

Wynn Resorts, a leisure and gaming corporation listed on Nasdaq, had on Oct 9, announced that its units, Wynn Las Vegas LLC and Wynn Las Vegas Capital Corp would be issuing US$500 million worth of new 7.875% First Mortgage Notes due 2017.

Genting Malaysia said yesterday its unit, Resorts World Ltd, had completed the subscription to US$15 million nominal amount of the notes.

“With yield returns in excess of 8%, the investment generates an attractive return compared to what is currently attainable in the money markets or in other secured investments regionally, especially within the Genting Malaysia group’s core leisure and hospitality industry,” it added.

The gaming giant added that the notes were secured against quality gaming and entertainment assets in Las Vegas.

Genting Malaysia said the proceeds would be used by Wynn to settle some of its outstanding debts and for general corporate purposes.

It said the subscription to the notes was not expected to have a material impact on the net assets or earnings per share of the Genting Malaysia group for the year ending Dec 31, 2009.

Genting Malaysia also has investments in Singapore and Hong Kong-listed Star Cruises Ltd (SCL), its 19.58% associate company. The purchase of MGM earlier this year signalled that a global expansion is underway for Genting Malaysia and triggered speculation that it could also buy out MGM’s stake in its Macau unit.

Wynn also has operations in Macau via its unit, Wynn Macau.

Wynn is one of the leading casino entertainment providers in the United States, owning and operating two PROPERTIES [] in Las Vegas, Nevada. For the financial year ended Dec 31, 2008, the Wynn group recorded net revenues of about US$3 billion.

On Oct 9, Wynn completed a successful initial public offering for Wynn Macau on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising over US$1.87 billion in new equity.

Monday, October 19, 2009

林立迎报警查廖中莱夫人

被指收建筑公司60万轿车
林立迎报警查廖中莱夫人

主行动党士岩沫国会议员林立迎(左图)今日针对卫生部长廖中莱的夫人被指接受一家建筑公司“汽车大礼”的传闻,前往冼都警区总部报案,要求警方调查。

由著名部落客拉惹波特拉主持的《今日马来西亚》网页,在10月14日刊登一则题为《致给尊贵的卫生部长廖中莱》的文章,指廖中莱的夫人李善如在今年1月的生日,接受Axis Construction私人有限公司(ACSB)所赠送的一辆丰田Alphard(车牌WSB 15),价值近60万令吉。


文章列明支票与户口号码

文章进一步指ACSB以一张丰隆银行(编号HLB 373727)缴付高达30万令吉的首期贷款,之后该公司继续缴付每月5000令吉的贷款,存入李善如的大众银行(户口号码4487469902)。文章指ACSB是获得卫生部工程合约的常客。

林立迎报警后向记者表示,“我们在今天报警,因为我们要知道真相,我们要知道《今日马来西亚》所刊登的文章是事实还是杜撰”。

强调报案与马华党争无关

他进一步解释,他们没有向反贪污委员会报案,因为他们无法确定此事的真伪。

“如果指控是真的,我们警方和反贪委会采取行动对付犯法的人士。若指控是虚假的,警方可以提控援引刑事法典500条文的刑事煽动罪,来提控有关作者。”

“如果他们无罪,这也是一个还被指控人士清白的机会。”

他强调,报案与马华党争无关。

文章刊登5天廖仍无回应

林立迎也说,在文章刊登后,他们已经给廖中莱(右图)5天的时间做出回应,但是对方一直没有回应,他们才决定报警。

人民公正党格拉那再也国会议员罗国本也陪同林立迎前往报警,他表示“公众通常将互联网上所刊登的资料视为片面事实,因此我们必须核实这项课题。”

不过,罗国本也表示,“警方的调查通常无法满足人们的期望,尤其是涉及部长。”

根据报章报道,廖中莱已经强烈否认“受贿”,并形容这是一项政治阴谋,他也愿意配合警方的调查。

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/115330

Reps want cops to investigate allegations in letter against Liow

KUALA LUMPUR: A report has been lodged by two opposition par-ty MPs calling on the police to investigate allegations made in a letter against Health Minister Datuk Seri Liow Tiong Lai.

The allegations against Liow, who is also MCA deputy president, were made in an unsigned letter which is being widely circulated in the Internet and published in the news portal Malaysia Today.

The report was lodged by DAP’s Segambut MP Lim Lip Eng and PKR’s Kelana Jaya MP Loh Gwo-Burne at the Sentul police station here yesterday.

A copy of the letter was attached to the police report.

The letter alleged that a company often awarded projects by the ministry had bought a multi-purpose vehicle for Liow’s wife for RM574,884.10.

It also said payments had been made into her account.

Lim, when speaking to reporters after lodging the report, read out the contents of the letter.

He also distributed to reporters copies of his police report and the letter.

“I want the police and the MACC to investigate this matter thoroughly, and bring him to book if there is any truth in it.

“However if found to be false, police must take action against the person who sent the letter,” he said.

Lim said he first read the letter which was posted in the letters column of the news portal on Saturday.

He decided to lodge a police report after reading the contents of the letter.

When contacted, Liow denied all the allegations made against him.

“It is totally rubbish. The person doing this obviously has malicious intent,” he said.

http://thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2009/10/19/nation/4930954&sec=nation

Saturday, October 17, 2009

翁诗杰的最后一场豪赌


翁诗杰又一次不按牌理出牌,不仅留任马华总会长之职,更援引总会长权力,指示召开双十特大后的另一场特大,让中央代表议决是否重选中委会。翁诗杰此举无疑是把双十特大后逐渐明朗化的马华权力布局,以强硬手腕全盘打乱,迫使党内各派势力重新洗牌,大家进场再玩一铺。

如今的局面,比较双十特大的结果还要诡谲和险恶万倍,整个马华宣告进入真正的战国时代。在混乱无比的局面中,有几条基本线索可以窥探:

拒绝体面下台打最后一战

一、翁诗杰在巴生港口自贸区和双十特大后,再次把自己的命运押上赌桌,所不同的是,这一次才真正是他最大也是最后一次的政治豪赌。

双十特大的结果,翁诗杰基于政治道义和事前诺言,只有下台一途——当然,下台还有好几种方式,包括立即辞 职、以过渡形式交棒等;但如此一走,他在大马政治史或马华党史的历史定位,最多只会有如此评价:“翁诗杰在担任马华总会长后推动一系列党改革计划,以带领 党走出低潮,但不幸的是在不到一年时间,在2009年10月10日特大中被投以不信任票,翁诗杰坦然接受特大结果,辞去总会长职位。”或诸如此类的传记论 调。

但翁诗杰不会甘于这样的历史定位,正确的说,他根本不愿屈服于命运的安排,所以他决定跟命运再赌一次,而且这次是真正押上一切的人生 豪赌——输了,就再没有体面下台的机会,在马华党史中只会留下更难堪的历史定位;赢了,就可以扭转乾坤,领导马华并交出政绩,从而改写日后历史对他的评 价。

翁诗杰拒绝体面下台,他决定打这一场最后的战役;成王败寇、是非褒贬,是英雄是狗熊,在此一举。

马华公会史上最牛总会长

二、翁诗杰的决定出乎意料,也在常理之中,说到底,好勇斗狠本来就是翁诗杰的性格。翁诗杰的从政历程,就是一路斗上来的,往日他战无不胜、攻无不克,今天他在双十特大虽然栽了个大筋斗,却不改本性,即使剩下最后一口气,也要跟你战斗到底。

双十特大,一半中央代表对翁诗杰投下了不信任票,首相纳吉暗示他应该离开,巫统喉舌《马来西亚前锋报》叫 嚣他必须辞职,蔡派要他滚蛋,昔日伙伴的中委成员们也开始做好接班准备了,但翁诗杰还是选择使出这最后的搏浪一击,不顾巫统旨意、不顾众叛亲离、不顾舆论 质疑。翁诗杰的倔强,比起林仓佑、梁维泮、陈群川等只有过之而无不及;马华历任总会长,最牛的要算他了。

翁诗杰和蔡细历其实都是战斗型的枭雄人物,有着遇强逾强、越战越勇、打不死的顽强个性,马华在308挫折后,让一个战斗型的强势领袖来领导,应该是许多党员的普遍愿望;但老天爷偏偏把两个强人摆在历史的交汇点,最终落得两败俱伤的结局。

与中委会对立陷孤立状态

三、 翁诗杰此举可视为对整个中委会的复仇行动,尤其是对那些之前与他站在同一阵线、誓言与他共同进退,而如今在他特大失利后还未呈辞就开始进行权力安排的中委 成员们(也就是所谓的挺翁人士)。早前马华会长理事会开除蔡细历,以及较后中委会的减刑决定,不管会长理事会或中委会成员都多次强调是集体决定,且确实有 人说过会与翁诗杰集体负责、共同进退;但特大的结果却最终由翁诗杰一人承担,应该离开的只有他,如此一来,翁诗杰不会甘心。

这就是翁诗杰在他的声明中所谓的“特别代表大会是因为纪律惩处事件引发,而有关结果则是集体所作的议决。 换言之,是党的领导层集体决策,不是一个人独断决定。”而他的复仇手法,就是把所有中委会成员逼上审判台——通过特大促成现任中委会的解散和重选,让这些 他认为已“背叛”他的中委成员再一次面对党选的考验,最重要的是,让他们不得不面对落选的风险。

翁诗杰的这一局豪赌,连众马华领袖的官位 和党职都一并押上去了,但如此一来,翁诗杰无疑是跟之前的挺翁人马,也就是几乎整个中委会对立起来了。因此,如今马华的最高领导层,除了处于弱势的蔡派人 马,当权派实际上已分为“总会长派”(翁派)与“中委派”(目前看来廖中莱是领军人物),其中后者在人数上占了多数。

眼下的所谓当权派,到底是总会长派还是中委派,是目前局势最吊诡的系数。另一方面,翁派要召开特大以决定中委是否重选的行动虽然符合蔡派意愿,蔡派可以表示支持,但不大可能会跟翁派联手对抗中委派,反而会趁机紧咬翁诗杰食言的议题,要求他辞去总会长职。

换 句话说,翁诗杰,正确而言是翁派,如今是真正陷入一种完全孤立的状态。当上马华总会长的翁诗杰,兜兜转转,最终又回到他昔日的独行之路,后人在读到这一段 历史时,或许只能唏嘘:翁诗杰终究是翁诗杰!而更吊诡的是,马华公会终究也走不出老大老二对立的宿命,只是这场斗争的主角,从上周的翁蔡,一夜之间变成了 翁廖。天意之弄人,不过如此!

多势力权斗模式复杂诡谲

四、马华双十特大后的权力布局被翁诗杰全盘打乱,各路势力被迫重新洗牌就位,除了当权派分裂成总会长派和 中委派,其它主要派系尚包括实力雄厚、伺机而动的蔡派,以及在场外虎视眈眈的林派(林祥才)、黄派(黄家泉)、冯派(冯镇安)等老A队派系。在第二场特大 召开之前,这几股势力之间的纵横捭阖、折冲樽俎、明争暗斗,其复杂、诡谲、变幻、险恶的程度,将是马华党史上绝无仅有;因为这几股势力之间的权斗模式,将 重复出现或重叠出现好几种方程式:

总会长派VS中委派+蔡派;总会长派+中委派VS蔡派;总会长派+蔡派VS中委派;总会长派+中委派 VS蔡派+林派+黄派+冯派;总会长派+蔡派+林派+黄派+冯派VS中委派;总会长派VS中委派+蔡派+林派+黄派+冯派;等等组合模式。这是一场任何派 系都根本无法作出任何准确计算、也对结果没有任何把握的权力斗争。

第二场特大埋下的可能性

五、我们再来看看第二场特大的提案,即是否重选中委会,所埋下的可能发展。如果这项议案获得通过,那意味 着马华在本年度的常年代表大会和特大结束后,就马上要迎来一场党选,到时候除了翁诗杰和蔡细历可能竞选总会长职,廖中莱、江作汉、冯镇安、黄家泉等也可以 参选,至于署理总会长和副总会长等职位的竞争情况更是难以逆料。简言之,根本没有人可以想象到时候的那场党选到底会打成什么样子。

但如果特大议案被否决呢?那表示现任领导层将保留,但问题是,翁诗杰到时会留任总会长吗?如果他留任,那么他与署理总会长廖中莱以及其余中委的裂痕,将埋下另一场党争的伏线。

纳吉最后解套手段革翁蔡?

六、 这个僵局的最坏情况,甚至可能演变成如同80年代绵延20个月的梁陈党争;但环顾整个马华,实际上已没有任何一个大老有足够的威望、魄力和资源,能够解套 当前的僵局,更甭说统一、整合马华上下。目前看来唯有首相纳吉介入,才能真正解决整个纷争,但如此一来,马华党史又得蒙上另一个被巫统插手干预党务的污点 了。

纳吉最新的一项言论,即马华党争的解决方案必须符合法理、道德、政治三大原则,其意思其实显而易见——翁蔡都应该走人;而纳吉最终被迫采取的手段,或许就是革除翁诗杰和蔡细历的交通部长及国阵总协调职位。

只是,在这一盘被彻底颠覆、重新开始的牌局中,纳吉能否摸到他要的那张底牌,恐怕连他自己也没有十足把握。

http://www.malaysiakini.com/news/115264

Happy Deepavali!

Bursa 3Q net profit at RM30.75m

BURSA MALAYSIA BHD reported a 52% increase in net profit of RM30.75 million for the third quarter ended Sept 30, 2009 from RM20.18 million a year ago as the stock exchange operator benefited from the higher trading volume.

It said on Friday, Oct 16 that revenue rose to RM86.29 million from RM73.63 million while earnings per shares were 5.80 sen compared with 3.80 sen.

On the higher earnings, it said this was mainly due to improved investors' sentiment as a result of improving global economic statistics which boosted trading revenue from the securities market.

However, the total number of contracts traded on the derivatives market decreased by 80,000 contracts to 1.51 million contracts in 3Q09 (3Q08: 1.59 million), resulting in a drop in trading revenue from the derivatives market by 18% to RM9.2 million in 3Q09 compared to 3Q08.

The decrease was mainly due to a lower number of FKLI contracts traded (3Q09: 500,000 contracts; 3Q08: 700,000 contracts). This was partially offset by the increase in number of FCPO contracts traded (3Q09: 1.03 million contracts; 3Q08: 0.85 million contracts).

Bursa Malaysia said stable revenue increased by 13% to RM29.1 million in 3Q09 compared to 3Q08 primarily due to higher CDS fees (of which RM4.7 million was attributed to prior periods). This increase was partially offset by lower annual listing fees as a result of lower market capitalisation of RM660 billion as at Dec 31, 2008 compared to RM1.11 trillion as at Dec 31, 2007.

The increase was further offset by a reduction in broker services income following the phasing out of older network equipment.

The on-market trades (OMT) on the securities market recorded a velocity of 36% (3Q08: 25%) and a daily average trading value for OMT and direct business trades (DBT) of RM1.38 billion (3Q08: RM890 million).

This resulted in an increase in trading revenue from the securities market by 46% to RM38.0 million in 3Q09 compared to 3Q08.

Other income increased marginally by 3 per cent to RM7.2 million in 3Q09 compared to 3Q08. The increase was due to a gain from disposal of motor vehicles and the recognition of the ETP Phase II grant. Interest income reduced as a result of a lower level of funds available for investment and lower return on investment.
BURSA
Bursa Malaysia said the Group recorded a lower profit before tax of RM43.8 million for 3Q09 compared to RM48.3 million in 2Q, which was a decrease of RM4.6 million or 9%.

Trading revenue from the securities market decreased by 21% to RM38.0 million in 3Q09 compared to RM47.9 million in 2Q09 mainly due to the lacklustre market as investors remained cautious over uncertainties in the strength of the domestic economic growth and global economic recovery.

The securities market recorded a velocity for OMT of 36% (2Q09: 48%) and a daily average trading value for OMT and DBT of RM1.38 billion (2Q09: RM1.56 billion).

Trading revenue from the derivatives market decreased by 21% to RM9.2 million in 3Q09 compared to RM11.7 million in 2Q09 mainly due to decrease in total number of contracts traded by 20% to 1.51 million in 3Q09 from 1.88 million in 2Q09.

Friday, October 16, 2009

Top US Executives Optimistic About Economy, Business

Top U.S. executives are becoming more hopeful about the global economy and the U.S. business outlook, according to a survey of business leaders released Thursday.

More than 60 percent of corporate leaders surveyed by the Business Council in October now expect conditions in their own industry to improve over the next six months. In contrast, almost 90 percent of those surveyed in February said conditions were worsening.

The change is a "welcome reversal of the doom and gloom that plagued outlooks earlier this year," James Dimon, Business Council vice chairman and JPMorgan Chase chief executive officer, said in a foreword to the survey.

More than half of the Business Council members say they expect the global economy to continue to improve moderately during the next six months.

The Business Council is an association of top executives whose members meet several times a year to discuss major business issues.

Some 70 percent of the survey respondents said they expected the retail sector to show continued moderate improvement.

"These results are encouraging, given that consumer confidence is rated the single most important factor in shaping the outlook for 2010," according to the survey, which was compiled by the Conference Board.

CEOs said their ability to raise prices had improved. More than 53 percent said pricing power had stabilized, and 26 percent said prices were rising.

Still, executives remain cautious about next year. The majority of Business Council members expect the U.S. economy to grow at a rate of 2 percent or less during the first half of 2010.

But worries about inflation prompted almost 46 percent of CEOs to say that the U.S. government should begin to unwind its massive asset purchases to avoid inflationary pressures.

In May, just 15 percent of respondents had supported the measure.

Earning season comes, uptrend comes?

This week US earning season starts. JPMorgan and Intel reported superb earning. Goldman Sachs's net income of $3.19 billion beat expectations on strong trading profits.

I think these earning reports can give us some indications on how the rest of the companies' earning reports will look like.

I also notice that for the last 2 quarters, when the earning season starts, so do the uptrend starts. When the earning season is near its end, there will be a short term correction. I wonder what will happen this time.

Good luck.

GOon

Thursday, October 15, 2009

Ammb-cd 8% profit in 3 weeks

i talked about bank stock on 15 September 2009 (http://www.cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/09/bank-stock.html).

I bought Ambank call warrants (ammb-cd) on 8 September 2009 at RM0.305 and I sold them all at RM0.33 on 2 October. This provided me with 8% profit in 3 week holding period. I have to admit, this trade could be better in term of profit but i sold it too early. Ambank jumped after i sold them. I think Ambank and Public Bank call warrants are the safest and most stable call warrants. I will park my fund there (buy Ambank and Public Bank call warrant) when I cant find any good potential trade.

The reason i sold them all was Ammb did not drop much compared to other stocks, so i would like to switch my portfolio to those that had dropped much. Besides, I thought October would not be a good month for stock market. I was wrong, so far this October is a good month for stock market.

Among the banks in Malaysia, I like Ambank, Public bank, Hong Leong Bank and RHB bank. I think Maybank and CIMB are the most expensive bank in Malaysia. Maybank and CIMB are GLC, I guess this will make investors think it is easier for them to get more government-related business. I think it is true too. In Malaysia, politic and business mix like rojak.

I wonder what will happen to CIMB if our prime minister is no longer around. For your information, CIMB CEO is our prime minister's younger brother.

Ok, good luck.

GOon

previous related post
http://www.cathoon.blogspot.com/2009/09/bank-stock.html

Wednesday, October 14, 2009

A song dedicated to my buddy. It is for you, Eddie.



解伟苓 - 放逐爱情
有时候 我真的觉得好寂寞
虽然你什麽都没说 只是紧紧的抱着我
却轻轻对我说 我只是 普通的朋友
爱的感觉不同 付出的爱没有结果

想不透 我知道自己没有错
爱你的心忘了上锁
傻傻让爱变成一种折磨
你对我一点不在乎 我还是爱的不认输
对你的爱我选择了让步

被放逐在寒冷的边际
去学习暧昧不清不是甜蜜
不再理所谓的不公平
静静的离去 轻轻的闭上眼睛

想不透 我知道自己没有错
爱你的心忘了上锁 傻傻让爱变成一种折磨
你对我一点不在乎 我还是爱的不认输
对你的爱我选择了让步

被放逐在寒冷的边际
去学习暧昧不清不是甜蜜
不再理所谓的不公平
静静的离去 轻轻的闭上眼睛

静静的摆在那里

Genting Malaysia



I like Genting Malaysia (Genm) a lot. It is a fundamentally sound company.

I notice that Genm was trading near its resistance at RM2.75, so without hesitate I buy Genm-cj on 8 Oct 2009 at RM0.155 and Genm-ck on 9 Oct 2009 at RM0.35.

I prefer Genm-ck (premium 6%, gearing 3.8) more than Genm-cj (premium 8.2%, gearing 3.2).

I think it is possible that Genm-ck and Genm-cj give me 50% profit in a month or two.

Genting and Genting Singapore are very hot lately and outperformed Genting Malaysia. In my humble opinion, Genting Malaysia is cheaper than Genting Bhd and Genting Singapore. Genting P/E is 48 and Genting Malaysia P/E is 26.24.

Nobody is 100% sure that Genting Singapore would make profit in future. Genting Singapore is scheduled to open this year end. At the same time, Genting Malaysia is already a proven very successful business but investors seem to like Genting Singapore more. Weird. I guess there are just too many speculators.

Ok, that's all from me for now.

Good luck.

GOon

Monday, October 12, 2009

I am back!

For the past 2 weeks, I went back to my home town in Penang and Sungai Petani. Everytime when i am at home, i try not to think of anything. I just want to rest my mind and really do nothing. Moreover, I don't really feel like working hard at home.

Now I am back in Johor Bahru and i feel good to be back to battle field again.

Lots of thing happend in stock market during the past 2 weeks, first there was a minor short-term correction, and now it is heading upward again. Everything happened so fast.

I have to admit I made some mistakes during the last 2 weeks, I sold all my glomac-wa too early. After I have sold all my glomac-wa, it continued to move upward another 20-30%. I thought there would be a bigger correction and i was wrong.

I don't punish myself too hard for this mistake. In fact, it is pointless to do. What I can do now is to search for another good trading opportunity.

Ok, that's all the update for now.

GOon

Thursday, October 8, 2009

US Mortgage applications surge to 4-month high

U.S. mortgage applications surged last week to their highest since mid-May as consumers sought to take advantage of the lowest interest rates in months, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said rates on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, the most widely used loan, were below 5 percent for a third straight week, reaching a four-month low. Demand for home refinancing loans was the highest since mid-May.

Appetite for applications to buy a home, a tentative early indicator of sales, climbed to the highest level since early January. The trend bodes well for the hard-hit U.S. housing market, which has been showing signs of stabilization.

The MBA said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week to October 2 increased 16.4 percent to 756.3, the highest since the week ended May 22.

"The residential housing market appears to be stabilizing due to lower mortgage rates," said Alan Rosenbaum, president of Guardhill Financial, a New York-based mortgage banker and brokerage company.

"The affordability factor, which takes into consideration both price and mortgage rates, has been very positive of late," he said.

Low mortgage rates, high affordability and the federal government's $8,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers -- part of the stimulus bill -- have helped pave the way for stabilization.


But with the tax credit set to expire on November 30 and distressed properties making up a high proportion of sales, the recent uptick in activity may mask uncertainty about the long-term outlook.

Rising unemployment is another obstacle. The U.S. Labor Department last week said the jobless rate reached a 26-year high of 9.8 percent in September.

Borrowing costs on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, excluding fees, averaged 4.89 percent, down 0.05 percentage point from the previous week and the lowest since the week ended May 22.

The rate remained above the all-time low of 4.61 percent set in the week ended March 27. The survey has been conducted weekly since 1990. Nevertheless, interest rates were well below the year-ago level of 5.99 percent.

The MBA's seasonally adjusted purchase index rose 13.2 percent to 306.1, its highest since the week ended January 2.

The four-week moving average of mortgage applications, which smooths the volatile weekly figures, was up 4.2 percent.

REFINANCING JUMPS

The Mortgage Bankers seasonally adjusted index of refinancing applications increased 18.2 percent to 3,377.1, with the index at its highest since the week ended May 22.

The refinance share of applications increased to 66.3 percent from 65.3 percent the previous week, but remained significantly lower than the peak of 85.3 percent in the week to January 9. The adjustable-rate mortgage share of activity decreased to 6.1 percent, down from 6.2 percent the prior week.

The U.S. housing market has suffered the worst downturn since the Great Depression and its impact has rippled through the recession-hit economy, as well as the rest of the world.

The housing market, however, has been showing signs of stabilization, with sales rising and price declines moderating in many regions of the country. In fact, home prices in some areas have risen.
Some analysts, however, say prices may fall again, with a new wave of foreclosures in the pipeline.

Fixed 15-year mortgage rates averaged 4.32 percent, down from 4.34 percent the previous week. Rates on one-year ARMs increased to 6.56 percent from 6.40 percent.

Tuesday, October 6, 2009

US Service sector grows in Sept., 1st time in year

The U.S. service sector grew in September for the first time in 13 months, an encouraging sign for the fledgling economic recovery, although jobs remain scarce.

The Institute for Supply Management said Monday that its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in August. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters had expected a reading of 50, the dividing line between growth and contraction.

The index, which tracks more than 80 percent of the country's economic activity, including hospitals, retailers, financial services companies and truckers, hadn't grown since August 2008.

The good news:
-- The new orders index, an indicator of future activity, jumped to 54.2 in September from 49.9 a month before, the first growth reading in a year.
-- Businesses' backlog of orders grew for the first time in 14 months.
-- Present business activity rose to 55.1 from 51.3 in August, growing for the second straight month after 10 straight contractions.

The ISM report is based on a survey of the institute's members in 18 industries and covers indicators such as new orders, employment and inventories. Five industries grew last month: utilities, health care, retail, construction and wholesale trade. And while activity is rising, only three areas reported an increase in jobs: health care, support services for companies and educational services.

Overall, service-sector employment shrank in September, though at a slightly slower pace than in August. The survey's reading of 44.3, up from 43.5, was the 20th month of contraction in 21 months.

"Better, but still terrible," Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist for High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note.

Other analysts said any hiring tends to lag increased production.

"We won't likely see increased hiring until January," even if business and new orders keep rising this fall, said Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Ethan Harris.

"Businesses are more reluctant than in the past to start the hiring process. They really do take the 'prove it to me' attitude" that the recession is over and demand is increasing, he said.

Last week, for example, Little Rock, Arkansas-based telecom services provider Windstream Corp. said it would cut 350 jobs, or 5 percent of its work force, this year.

Despite the overall growth, the chair of the ISM's service survey committee was not "overly excited" about September's report and said several months of increases are needed to establish a pattern of recovery.

"This has to be sustainable," Anthony Nieves said on a conference call with reporters.
The service sector is dependent on consumer spending, which powers about 70 percent of the economy. While Americans' spending rose 1.3 percent in August, the best showing since October 2001, a third of that gain came from the government's now-ended Cash for Clunkers program. The government also reported that incomes rose only 0.2 percent in August.

"We're in this kind of twilight zone of very soft recovery," Harris said.

Glomac-wa 32% in 3 weeks.




Finally, i have sold all my Glomac-wa. I bought them on 8 September 2009 at RM0.30 and i sold them all on 2 October 2009 at RM0.395. This trade provided me with 32% profit with a holding period of 3 weeks. Glomac-wa outperformed KLCI during the same period.



The reason that i sold them all was Glomac-wa had gone up significantly while other counters on my watchlist had declined significantly. I think it would be better for me to sell those counters that have gone up a lot and buy those that have gone down. Beside that, Glomac's trading volume is starting to decline.



Our stock market sentiment is getting weaker. I think it is into a short-term correction.


Good luck.


GOon

Thursday, October 1, 2009

Glomac to launch new phases in ongoing projects

Property developer GLOMAC BHD plans to launch new phases with a targeted gross development value (GDV) of RM500 million in five of its ongoing projects in its current financial year ending April 30, 2010.

The new phases are a mix of residential and commercial projects, including a low-cost housing project in a joint venture with Perbadanan Kemajuan Negeri Selangor (PKNS), said Glomac managing director and chief executive officer Datuk FD Iskandar.

The projects that would launch a new phase are Glomac Damansara, Saujana Utama, Bandar Saujana Utama, Seri Bangi and Glomac Cyberjaya.

“The Seri Bangi low-cost residential housing project is a joint venture between us and PKNS,” Iskandar said. He said the group aimed to achieve RM500 million in sales this year from its 11 ongoing projects, which have a total GDV of RM3 billion.

Iskandar said Glomac was seeing an improvement in consumer sentiment in line with the gradual recovery seen in the economy.

“We are not out of the woods per se, and the economy needs to recover first before the effect can be felt in the different sectors,” he said, adding he expected a full economic recovery by next year.

Glomac posted a 13.5% rise in net profit to RM8.34 million in its first quarter ended July 31, 2009 despite a 40.9% fall in revenue to RM58.99 million. The higher profit was due mainly to the stronger contributions from Glomac Tower and recognition of fair value gain for Block B Glomac Business Centre.

On the forthcoming 10th Malaysia Plan, FD Iskandar hoped that property taxes would be reduced to increase the purchasing power of consumers. He also said state governments should take up low-cost housing initiatives to relieve private companies of the additional burden.

In addition, he said the government should do more more to promote the Malaysian property market to attract foreign interest, he said.

Glomac Bhd net profit UP

GLOMAC BHD posted net profit of RM8.34 million for the first quarter ended July 31, 2009, up from the RM7.8 million a year ago.

The company said on Sept 28 that on a pre-tax level, it was up 57% at RM16.47 million versus RM10.5 million a year ago. Revenue slipped to RM58.98 million from RM79.54 million. Earnings per share were 2.99 sen versus 2.73 sen.

"The lower group revenue was mainly due to the completion of Suria Stonor, the group’s high-end residential condominium project. Profits were substantially higher due to stronger contributions from Glomac Tower. The stronger profits in the quarter also included the recognition of fair value gain of RM4.9 million from its investment PROPERTIES [ ]," it said.

Glomac group executive chairman, Tan Sri F.D. Mansor said: “Overall, the group has had a good start to the current financial year" and the group's balance sheet would continue to improve upon the completion of the sale of two of its investment properties.

He said the sale of the two properties would enable it to undertake more exciting development projects and seek out new development landbank.

"Glomac’s financial performance in FY2010 will be supported by substantial unbilled sales of RM333 million as at end-July 2009, and new sales on recently launched projects.

"The group’s new flagship development, Glomac Damansara, comprising of shop offices, office towers, serviced apartments and retail suites, has a total estimated GDV (gross development value) of RM800 million," he said, adding the first phase, comprising of five and eight-storey shop offices with a total GDV of RM53 million, achieved a take-up rate of 70% over the initial six-month launch period.